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Orioles 12, Marlins 5                                       2026-07-07 · #1026
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Baltimore              10      2   12   13    0
Miami                   5      0    5    4    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maloney     lf ......    4   1   3   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Purchase    cf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Alison      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Ison        rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Mateer      3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Barba   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Samudio     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Kautz   ph ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Foust       ss ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   1  0.333
Roy         p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Stokke  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Visser  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
  e-López   pr ......    2   3   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Adams       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31  12  13   6   0   0  11   6   9   0   2  0.419
  2B: Maloney 2 (39), Mateer (2), Foust (11), Kautz (18), López (3).
  SB: Roy (1).
  CS: Maloney 2 (14), Purchase (6).
  HBP: López (2).
  Squeeze: Foust (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Mateer in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Samudio in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Roy in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Stokke in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blackman    c  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Enterline   ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Mothudi     1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Beasley pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suggs       cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Todd-Willia rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Enquist ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Corzo       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Mangin      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cook        p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Chieh-yu    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   4   3   0   0   5   4  14   0   0  0.148
  2B: Blackman (5), Mothudi (8), Cook (1).
  SB: Blackman (2).
  GIDP: Beasley (2).
  a-Ran for Mothudi in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Todd-Williams in the 7th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Roy (W, 11-5) .......    14   14  52%    1    0    0    0   10    0   54    -
Nealon ..............     6    2   7%    3    4    4    1    0    0   17  1-1
Barella (F, 22) .....    12   11  41%    0    1    1    3    6    0   34  1-1

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cook (L, 1-2) .......    25   15  56%    9    8    8    4    6    0   97    -
Lord ................    14   12  44%    4    4    4    2    4    0   52  2-0

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Roy (Outs 1-14) → Nealon (Outs 15-16) → Barella (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Cook (Outs 1-15) → Lord (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mothudi (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Enterline (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Todd-Williams (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted second; Orioles batted first.
  Seconds: BAL o25 (10-0), MIA o25 (5-10).
  First pitch 6:40 PM ET. Weather: 92°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 845850.
  Powerplays: Marlins — Beasley NF (O9)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Kreigh Mateer Dylan Purchase (1B) 1–0
T 5 Sidney Foust Kreigh Mateer (3B) 2–0
T 12 Jason Adams Maciek Stokke (3B) 3–0
T 12 Jason Adams Ulises Barba (3B) 4–0
T 12 Jason Adams Edson López (2B) 5–0
T 13 Alan Maloney Jason Adams (2B) 6–0
T 17 Edson López Dyllan Ison (2B) 7–0
T 20 Rill Kautz Edson López (3B) 8–0
T 20 Rill Kautz Sidney Foust (2B) 9–0
T 25 Dylan Purchase Edson López (2B) 10–0
B 13 Jacobe Mothudi Gilbert Cook (2B) 10–1
B 13 Wallace Enterline Carson Suggs (3B) 10–2
B 13 Ramon Blackman Jacobe Mothudi (3B) 10–3
B 13 Don Burns Wallace Enterline (3B) 10–4
B 23 Alexander Beasley Ramon Blackman (3B) 10–5
seconds_first 1 Sidney Foust Alan Maloney (3B) 11–5
seconds_first 1 Rill Kautz Sidney Foust (2B) 12–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Orioles — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 7 1B · 6 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Alan Maloney — double · EV 84 mph · LA +41° · 283 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 128 ft Kreigh Mateer — double · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 121 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +3° · 73 ft Alastair Roy — single · EV 94 mph · LA +15° · 172 ft Sidney Foust — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -11° · 95 ft Jason Adams — single · EV 88 mph · LA -18° · 84 ft Edson López — double · EV 108 mph · LA +15° · 235 ft Alan Maloney — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 173 ft Dyllan Ison — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +30° · 294 ft Rill Kautz — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 369 ft Rick Visser — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +5° · 89 ft Alan Maloney — single · EV 117 mph · LA +21° · 373 ft Dyllan Ison — single · EV 118 mph · LA +2° · 112 ft Rill Kautz — single · EV 78 mph · LA -1° · 74 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 82 mph · LA +1° · 78 ft Sidney Foust — double · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 139 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Alan Maloney — double · EV 97 mph · LA +22° · 258 ft Rill Kautz — double · EV 110 mph · LA +12° · 202 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Ramon Blackman — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +17° · 166 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +15° · 139 ft Don Burns — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -7° · 75 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA +8° · 56 ft Alexander Beasley — double_play · EV 83 mph · LA -8° · 79 ft Gilbert Cook — double · EV 103 mph · LA +16° · 227 ft Bob Todd-Williams — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +33° · 195 ft Jacobe Mothudi — double · EV 87 mph · LA +31° · 268 ft Wallace Enterline — single · EV 86 mph · LA +21° · 199 ft Ramon Blackman — double · EV 86 mph · LA +33° · 268 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
92% deserve-to-win  ·  11.5 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 16.7 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (+2.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 3 CS (-1.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Kautz 100 / +34° Oppo Out 2.0 → 0 -1.95
Alan Maloney 84 / +41° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Alan Maloney 100 / +13° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Kreigh Mateer 92 / +10° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Sidney Foust 94 / +12° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Marlins
8% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 4.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+2.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jacobe Mothudi 87 / +31° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.60
Ramon Blackman 86 / +33° Pull Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Ramon Blackman 87 / +17° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Montavious Chieh-yu 83 / +15° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Gilbert Cook 103 / +16° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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