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Braves 20, Nationals 2                                      2026-07-08 · #1040
at The Citadel
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Washington              2      0    2    4    1
Atlanta                19      1   20   17    1

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Alvarado    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Devezin     rf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.667
Thompkins   lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Cheng       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Foster      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Ferrie      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Abadía      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Heffner ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   2   4   0   0   0   2   3  11   0   1  0.160
  SB: Devezin (14).
  CS: Devezin (9).
  E: Alvarado (5).
  HBP: Foster (2), Abadía (2).
  a-Grounded out in the 6th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bombito     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Spencer ph ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Nilo        rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Kaloger ph ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Alvelo      2b ......    5   2   2   0   0   2   3   0   1   0   0  0.400
Bray        lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Cocotos     c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  c-Almeida pr ......    1   3   1   0   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Sherman     cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.250
Nightingale ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Martín  pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Togashi     1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Chu     pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  f-Justini pr ......    2   3   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Lamar   ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Weah        j  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ortiz       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
María       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  36  20  17   5   0   3  20  10   6   0   0  0.472
  2B: Bombito (6), Weah (7), Spencer (14), Justiniano (2), Lamar (14).
  HR: Alvelo 2 (4), off Clemente, Abadía; Almeida (1), off Clemente.
  CS: Sauerbrunn (8), Sherman (8).
  E: Chu (10).
  HBP: Nilo (7).
  a-Batted for Bombito in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Nilo in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Cocotos in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Nightingale in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Togashi in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 6th.
  g-Batted for Chu in the 7th.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abadía ..............    34   22  81%   11   11    5    6    6    1  112    -
Clemente (L, 0-2) ...    13    5  19%    6    9    8    4    0    2   39  1-1

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bombito (W, 3-4) ....    15   14  52%    1    0    0    1    6    0   60    -
Buford ..............    13   10  37%    3    2    2    2    5    0   48    -
Morejón .............     2    3  11%    0    0    0    0    0    0    4  2-0

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-22) → Clemente (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ferrie (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foster (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bombito (Outs 1-14) → Buford (Outs 15-24) → Morejón (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cocotos (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Togashi (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Bray (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Nilo (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted first; Nationals batted second.
  Seconds: WSN o25 (2-19), ATL o25 (19-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 99°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 698810.
  Walk-Back runs: off Clemente 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 2 Hugo Bray Oscar Nilo (2B) 0–1
B 7 Cormani Weah Todd Chu (1B) 0–2
B 17 Cormani Weah Maximo Justiniano (3B) 0–3
B 17 Cormani Weah Edgar Ortiz (2B) 0–4
B 17 Donny Nightingale Cormani Weah (2B) 0–5
B 17 Mac Sherman Todd Chu (2B) 0–6
B 20 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Wilson Almeida (3B) 0–7
B 20 Zack Spencer Maximo Justiniano (3B) 0–8
B 20 Zack Spencer Akili Sauerbrunn (2B) 0–9
B 20 Zack Spencer Kreigh Kalogeropoulos (1B) 0–10
B 20 Joseph Martín Zack Spencer (2B) 0–11
B 21 Wilson Almeida Joseph Martín (2B) 0–12
B 21 Wilson Almeida Mac Sherman (1B) 0–13
B 21 Wilson Almeida Wilson Almeida (HR) 0–14
B 21 Maximo Justiniano Wilson Almeida (3B) 0–15
B 21 Mirko Alvelo Maximo Justiniano (2B) 0–16
B 21 Mirko Alvelo Mirko Alvelo (HR) 0–17
B 23 Dennis Lamar Kreigh Kalogeropoulos (2B) 0–18
B 23 Dennis Lamar Zack Spencer (1B) 0–19
T 16 Daniel Heffner Damion Thompkins (3B) 1–19
T 19 Rayce Foster Rill Devezin (3B) 2–19
seconds_first 1 Mirko Alvelo Mirko Alvelo (HR) 2–20
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Nationals — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Rill Devezin — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +28° · 185 ft Júnior Alvarado — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA -20° · 80 ft Daniel Heffner — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 294 ft Diehl Ferrie — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -4° · 67 ft Damion Thompkins — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Rayce Foster — single · EV 82 mph · LA +15° · 136 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 91 mph · LA -10° · 87 ft Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -9° · 76 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — error · EV 98 mph · LA +21° · 252 ft Damion Thompkins — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -6° · 81 ft Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -18° · 64 ft Marcos Pastore — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 331 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 9 1B · 5 XBH · 3 HR
368' 355' 345' Donovan Bombito — double · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 390 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 110 mph · LA +3° · 105 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 98 mph · LA +13° · 164 ft Bruce Cocotos — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +5° · 86 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -8° · 85 ft Kanata Togashi — single · EV 73 mph · LA +10° · 77 ft Cormani Weah — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 262 ft Todd Chu — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA +6° · 100 ft Zack Spencer — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Joseph Martín — single · EV 98 mph · LA -7° · 93 ft Wilson Almeida — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +36° · 421 ft Maximo Justiniano — double · EV 94 mph · LA +27° · 288 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — single · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Dennis Lamar — double · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 367 ft Mac Sherman — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +17° · 159 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +30° · 319 ft Cormani Weah — single · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Todd Chu — single · EV 114 mph · LA +5° · 108 ft Zack Spencer — double · EV 116 mph · LA +16° · 288 ft Donny Nightingale — error · EV 104 mph · LA +7° · 99 ft Mac Sherman — single · EV 96 mph · LA +3° · 91 ft Bruce Cocotos — single · EV 116 mph · LA +9° · 162 ft Mirko Alvelo — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 228 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -0° · 68 ft Mirko Alvelo — hr · EV 118 mph · LA +28° · 459 ft Mac Sherman — fielders_choice · EV 104 mph · LA +9° · 134 ft Mirko Alvelo — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +28° · 466 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
5% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.9 vs expected
contact: 6.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cheng-wei Cheng 98 / +21° Pull Reached on Error 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Marcos Pastore 92 / +40° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Daniel Heffner 96 / +27° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Rill Devezin 80 / -11° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Rill Devezin 91 / -10° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Braves
95% deserve-to-win  ·  21.3 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 29.9 est bases + 11 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 31.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mirko Alvelo 100 / +17° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Maximo Justiniano 94 / +27° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Mac Sherman 104 / +9° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Wilson Almeida 105 / +36° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.10
Akili Sauerbrunn 96 / +30° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
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