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Astros 18, Orcas 6                                          2026-07-11 · #1068
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                18   18   17    0
Vancouver               6    6    5    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Patridge    3b ......    5   1   3   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.600
Morales     1b ......    5   2   3   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
Pitchford   ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Moros       lf ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
Thom        c  ......    5   3   3   1   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  0.600
Humphreys   rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Prince  pr ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Herrera     2b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Tassew      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gómez   pr ......    2   3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Carrington  p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Rivas   ph ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Kingsbu ph ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Oliveira    j  ......    1   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   1   0  2.000
Totals                  39  18  17   9   0   1  18   4  11   1   0  0.436
  2B: Patridge 2 (8), Pitchford (1), Moros (1), Thom (10), Rivas (13), Oliveira (6), Prince (2), Kingsbury (6).
  HR: Thom (4), off Abreu.
  HBP: Kingsbury (2).
  GIDP: Morales (9).
  a-Ran for Humphreys in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Tassew in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Carrington in the 3rd.
  d-Batted in the 6th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Balotelli   2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Noonan      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Martínez    p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Edmonso pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Valdivia    rf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0  1.000
Badger      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Beigel      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Godín       1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   2  0.000
Quintero    lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0  0.333
  b-Garcés  ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  27   6   5   1   0   1   6   5  11   1   2  0.185
  2B: Valdivia (5).
  HR: Garcés (1), off Fenty.
  SB: Quintero (9).
  GIDP: Balotelli (6).
  Squeeze: Balotelli.
  a-Ran for Martínez in the 4th.
  b-Homered in the 5th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Carrington (W, 7-4) .    13   12  44%    2    1    1    3    3    0   53    -
Fenty ...............    13   11  41%    2    4    4    1    6    1   45  2-2
Romero (F, 4) .......     5    4  15%    1    1    1    1    2    0   16  1-0

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Martínez ............    16   11  41%    6    5    5    2    6    0   52    -
Abreu (L, 0-2) ......    10    4  15%    6    7    6    1    0    1   37  1-1
Ormeño ..............    13    7  26%    4    6    3    1    3    0   58  1-1
Millar ..............     4    5  19%    0    0    0    0    2    0   14  1-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Carrington (Outs 1-12) → Fenty (Outs 13-23) → Romero (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Herrera (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Patridge (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Pitchford (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Martínez (Outs 1-11) → Abreu (Outs 12-15) → Ormeño (Outs 16-22) → Millar (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Godín (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Balotelli (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Valdivia (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  First pitch 1:35 PM PT. Weather: 72°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 282827.
  Walk-Back runs: off Abreu 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 7 Marcelo Oliveira Iapani Thom (3B) 1–0
T 7 Marcelo Oliveira Mayer Gómez (2B) 2–0
T 7 Marcelo Oliveira Mayer Gómez (2B) 3–0
T 9 Iapani Thom Marcelo Oliveira (2B) 4–0
T 11 Raz Pitchford Jeff Prince (2B) 5–0
T 11 Jeyland Morales Raz Pitchford (2B) 6–0
T 11 Butch Patridge Jeyland Morales (1B) 7–0
T 15 Iapani Thom Scoville Rivas (3B) 8–0
T 15 Iapani Thom Iapani Thom (HR) 9–0
T 15 Mirko Moros Iapani Thom (3B) 10–0
T 15 Marcos Kingsbury Mirko Moros (2B) 11–0
T 15 Jeyland Morales Marcos Kingsbury (2B) 12–0
T 16 Scoville Rivas Jeyland Morales (1B) 13–0
T 17 Jeff Prince Scoville Rivas (3B) 14–0
T 17 Jeff Prince Mayer Gómez (2B) 15–0
T 17 Iapani Thom Jeff Prince (2B) 16–0
T 21 Butch Patridge Marcos Kingsbury (2B) 17–0
T 21 Jeyland Morales Butch Patridge (2B) 18–0
B 10 Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles Jonás Quintero (3B) 18–1
B 13 Andrea Peavy Alexis Edmonson (3B) 18–2
B 14 Tony Garcés Jonás Quintero (3B) 18–3
B 14 Tony Garcés Andrea Peavy (1B) 18–4
B 14 Tony Garcés Tony Garcés (HR) 18–5
B 23 Moisés Valdivia Moisés Valdivia (2B) 18–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Astros — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 6 1B · 9 XBH · 1 HR
282' 485' 283' Butch Patridge — single · EV 96 mph · LA -9° · 91 ft Jeyland Morales — double_play · EV 98 mph · LA -6° · 93 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -13° · 84 ft Iapani Thom — double · EV 97 mph · LA +25° · 289 ft Marcelo Oliveira — single · EV 99 mph · LA +4° · 94 ft Jeff Prince — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 122 ft Marcos Kingsbury — double · EV 108 mph · LA +18° · 275 ft Marcelo Oliveira — double · EV 98 mph · LA +21° · 255 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 239 ft Raz Pitchford — double · EV 111 mph · LA +16° · 268 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 86 mph · LA +22° · 208 ft Butch Patridge — double · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 262 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -4° · 89 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 205 ft Jeff Prince — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 216 ft Marcos Kingsbury — line_out · EV 113 mph · LA +9° · 153 ft Bernie Herrera — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Iapani Thom — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 447 ft Mirko Moros — double · EV 106 mph · LA +38° · 439 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Iapani Thom — error · EV 99 mph · LA +2° · 94 ft Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -13° · 88 ft Butch Patridge — double · EV 117 mph · LA +25° · 416 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 78 mph · LA +24° · 183 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +9° · 91 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -15° · 69 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
282' 485' 283' Andrea Peavy — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 255 ft Karim Balotelli — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -10° · 77 ft Jonás Quintero — single · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Tony Garcés — hr · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft Alexis Edmonson — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +4° · 53 ft Moisés Valdivia — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Sandy Martínez — single · EV 88 mph · LA -18° · 84 ft Herb Noonan — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Karim Balotelli — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 166 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Andrea Peavy — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -6° · 50 ft Amarien Beigel — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 162 ft Karim Balotelli — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Jonás Quintero — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Jonás Quintero — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 74 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
89% deserve-to-win  ·  15.3 expected runs
actual 18 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 27.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 28.0 (+0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Kingsbury 113 / +9° Pull Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Iapani Thom 119 / +26° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.04
Butch Patridge 117 / +25° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -0.96
Mirko Moros 106 / +38° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -0.95
Iapani Thom 97 / +25° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.92
Orcas
11% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tony Garcés 92 / +35° Pull Home Run 0.9 → 4 +3.08
Moisés Valdivia 92 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.08
Andrea Peavy 95 / +22° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Amarien Beigel 92 / +14° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Jonás Quintero 76 / -3° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
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