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Braves 5, Stars 3                                           2026-07-12 · #1070
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Nashville               3    3    6    0
Atlanta                 5    5    5    0

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cooper      lf ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.750
Karouani    1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Ruiz    pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mendez      ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Spence      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Boattin     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Santamaría  3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Beers   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Caballero   c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burani      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Fusano  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Aupiu       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Gamboa  pr ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.500
Giannou     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Morariu     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   6   1   0   0   3   2  11   1   0  0.231
  2B: Gamboa (8).
  SB: Cooper (13).
  HBP: Karouani (7), Aupiu (1), Giannou (1).
  a-Ran for Karouani in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Santamaría in the 8th.
  c-Batted for Burani in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Aupiu in the 3rd.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Alvelo      2b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Lamar       lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Bombito     p  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Nilo        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Powlus      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kalogeropou rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bray        ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Chu     pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sherman     c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                   8   5   5   4   0   0   5   3   1   0   0  0.625
  2B: Alvelo (19), Lamar (19), Bombito (7), Bray (15).
  CS: Lamar (3).
  a-Ran for Bray in the 7th.

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aupiu (L, 1-3) ......     8    4  15%    4    3    3    1    1    0   26    -
Forrest .............     3    0   0%    1    2    2    2    0    0    7  1-0

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bombito (W, 4-4) ....    29   26  96%    5    3    3    2   11    0   86    -
Voorhees ............     2    1   4%    1    0    0    0    0    0    9    -

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-4)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Aupiu (Outs 1-4)
CATCHER (C)       | Caballero (Outs 1-4)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-4)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-4)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Santamaría (Outs 1-4)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Mendez (Outs 1-4)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-4)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Boattin (Outs 1-4)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-4)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Bombito (Outs 1-26) → Voorhees (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sherman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Bray (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Lamar (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Nilo (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted second; Stars batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 175134.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.46
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Khosilot El Karouani Bruno Cooper (3B) 1–0 —
T 23 Tony Caballero Facundo Mendez (3B) 2–0 —
T 24 Manuel Gamboa Sandy Beers (3B) 3–0 —
B 2 Mirko Alvelo Donovan Bombito (2B) 3–1 0.36
B 2 Mirko Alvelo Akili Sauerbrunn (1B) 3–2 0.24
B 4 Hugo Bray Mirko Alvelo (2B) 3–3 0.13
B 4 Donovan Bombito Todd Chu (3B) 3–4 0.00
B 4 Donovan Bombito Mac Sherman (2B) 3–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.46
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Stars — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Bruno Cooper — single · EV 81 mph · LA +16° · 142 ft Khosilot El Karouani — single · EV 79 mph · LA +5° · 75 ft Tracy Fusano — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +41° · 313 ft Bruno Cooper — single · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 143 ft Facundo Mendez — line_out · EV 72 mph · LA +18° · 124 ft Sean Spence — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -9° · 75 ft Pepe Boattin — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -16° · 82 ft Nestor Santamaría — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -9° · 70 ft Tony Caballero — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 98 ft Manuel Gamboa — double · EV 97 mph · LA +44° · 379 ft Javier Ruiz — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -9° · 70 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +3° · 62 ft Facundo Mendez — single · EV 99 mph · LA -7° · 94 ft Pepe Boattin — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Tony Caballero — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -20° · 78 ft Bruno Cooper — single · EV 87 mph · LA -15° · 82 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 1 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Dennis Lamar — double · EV 97 mph · LA +45° · 379 ft Donovan Bombito — double · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 271 ft Mirko Alvelo — double · EV 97 mph · LA +44° · 373 ft Beals Powlus — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +34° · 349 ft Hugo Bray — double · EV 110 mph · LA +28° · 400 ft Donovan Bombito — single · EV 114 mph · LA +2° · 108 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Stars
52% deserve-to-win  ·  6.2 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tracy Fusano 89 / +41° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Manuel Gamboa 97 / +44° Pull Stay 2.0 → 1 -1.01
Khosilot El Karouani 79 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Bruno Cooper 87 / -15° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Facundo Mendez 72 / +18° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Braves
48% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 9.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Beals Powlus 97 / +34° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Donovan Bombito 119 / +14° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Donovan Bombito 114 / +2° Oppo Single 0.7 → 1 +0.29
Hugo Bray 110 / +28° Center Double 2.2 → 2 -0.25
Dennis Lamar 97 / +45° Center Double 2.0 → 2 -0.01
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