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Sydney Border Force 13, Perth Smelters 10                   2046-04-24 · #1077
at Genia Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Perth                  10      -   10    9    0
Sydney                 13      0   13   10    0

PERTH SMELTERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Arzani      1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Esson       3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Olla    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
McCullum    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Cumming pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Smeltz      lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
  c-Cumming pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Smith       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  d-Wetzell ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  e-Kerr    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Wesbroo cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Foster  c  ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
  h-Syph-Ti rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Madgen  c  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
  j-Bowen   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  k-Skilton pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Olla        j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  32  10   9   2   0   0   9   4  15   0   1  0.281
  2B: Madgen (22), Cummings (5).
  HBP: Kerr (3).
  GIDP: Skilton (1).
  a-Ran for Esson in the 5th.
  b-Ran for McCullum in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Smeltz in the 8th.
  d-Batted for Smith in the 6th.
  e-Batted for Wesbrook in the 5th.
  f-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  g-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  h-Entered at RF in the 3rd.
  i-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  j-Batted for Syph-Timmons in the 4th.
  k-Ran for Kerr in the 8th.

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gorry       c  ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Jiménez-Tro lf ......    4   4   4   0   3   0   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Pledger     cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.500
Buffington  rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  a-Riise   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lochhead    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rowles      1b ......    3   3   3   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Vine        ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rukavytsya  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Rennie      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Anton       j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Hunt        j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  33  13  10   1   3   2  11   6  13   0   0  0.303
  2B: Anton (5).
  3B: Jiménez-Tromp 3 (3).
  HR: Gorry (1), off Smith; Rowles (1), off Paston.
  SB: Pledger (5), Rukavytsya (2).
  CS: Rowles (2).
  a-Replaced Buffington at SS in the 9th.

PERTH SMELTERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Smith ...............     5    3  11%    2    2    1    0    2    1   17    -
Paston (L, 1-1) .....    13   10  37%    3    4    4    2    6    1   56  1-1
Sainsbury ...........    16   12  44%    2    4    3    4    5    0   73  1-1
Vukona ..............     3    2   7%    2    3    3    0    0    0    8  2-2

SYDNEY BORDER FORCE PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rennie (W, 2-2) .....    27   21  78%    3    6    6    4   13    0  107    -
Bannatyne ...........     8    4  15%    5    4    4    0    2    0   33  2-1
Rowles ..............     1    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    6  2-0

  Batting order: Sydney Border Force (home) batted first; Perth Smelters batted second.
  Seconds: SBF o26 (13-0).
  First pitch 7:10 PM VLAT. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 665319.
  Powerplays: Perth Smelters — Cummings NF (O9)
  Walk-Back runs: off Smith 1, off Sainsbury 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Todd Gorry Todd Gorry (HR) 0–1
B 0 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Todd Gorry (3B) 0–2
B 3 Taylor Lochhead Xander Jiménez-Tromp (3B) 0–3
B 8 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Rhyan Rowles (2B) 0–4
B 12 Rhyan Rowles Xander Jiménez-Tromp (1B) 0–5
B 12 Rhyan Rowles Rhyan Rowles (HR) 0–6
B 14 Richard Hunt Rhyan Rowles (3B) 0–7
B 19 Taylor Lochhead Xander Jiménez-Tromp (3B) 0–8
B 20 Rhyan Rowles Mitchell Pledger (3B) 0–9
B 20 Rhyan Rowles Mark Anton (2B) 0–10
B 24 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Richard Hunt (2B) 0–11
B 24 Xander Jiménez-Tromp Todd Gorry (1B) 0–12
B 24 Mark Anton Xander Jiménez-Tromp (3B) 0–13
T 12 Matt Esson Taylor Foster (3B) 1–13
T 16 Aaron Arzani Antonio Wesbrook (3B) 2–13
T 18 Scott Olla Adam Olla (3B) 3–13
T 18 Adam Olla Pat Cummings (3B) 4–13
T 21 Ish Smeltz Scott Olla (3B) 5–13
T 21 Ish Smeltz Nikita Madgen (2B) 6–13
T 21 Cam Wetzell Jeet Skilton (3B) 7–13
T 25 Nikita Madgen Cam Wetzell (3B) 8–13
T 25 Nikita Madgen Aaron Arzani (2B) 9–13
T 25 Pat Cummings Taylor Foster (3B) 10–13
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Genia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 362' · CF 435' · RF 397' · 7' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Perth Smelters — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
362' 435' 397' Taylor Foster — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -5° · 49 ft Matt Esson — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +53° · 264 ft Adam Olla — fly_out · EV 69 mph · LA +26° · 150 ft Jeet Skilton — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +7° · 76 ft Matt Esson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Nikita Madgen — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +11° · 96 ft Scott Olla — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 156 ft Cam Wetzell — single · EV 69 mph · LA +38° · 187 ft Pat Cummings — double · EV 83 mph · LA +37° · 267 ft Ish Smeltz — single · EV 74 mph · LA +18° · 130 ft Aaron Arzani — single · EV 85 mph · LA +24° · 218 ft Scott Olla — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 222 ft Nikita Madgen — double · EV 103 mph · LA +18° · 249 ft Taylor Foster — single · EV 58 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft
Sydney Border Force — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 2 HR
362' 435' 397' Todd Gorry — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +46° · 400 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 305 ft Mark Anton — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 236 ft Taylor Lochhead — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -8° · 63 ft Rhyan Rowles — single · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 113 ft Marco Vine — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — single · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 258 ft Rhyan Rowles — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 360 ft Ross Rennie — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft Todd Gorry — fly_out · EV 112 mph · LA +50° · 480 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 339 ft Rhyan Rowles — single · EV 84 mph · LA +3° · 80 ft Marco Vine — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -14° · 81 ft Todd Gorry — error · EV 98 mph · LA +21° · 255 ft Mark Anton — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 335 ft Richard Hunt — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Xander Jiménez-Tromp — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 241 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Perth Smelters
7% deserve-to-win  ·  3.2 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +6.8 vs expected
contact: 6.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+3.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pat Cummings 83 / +37° Pull Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Cam Wetzell 69 / +38° Oppo Single 0.0 → 1 +0.98
Aaron Arzani 85 / +24° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Taylor Foster 58 / +9° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Nikita Madgen 79 / +11° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Sydney Border Force
93% deserve-to-win  ·  11.4 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 19.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (+2.2 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rhyan Rowles 119 / +20° Pull Home Run 1.7 → 4 +2.26
Todd Gorry 112 / +50° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.64
Xander Jiménez-Tromp 100 / +25° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.56
Mark Anton 100 / +18° Oppo Out 1.5 → 0 -1.54
Todd Gorry 100 / +46° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.47
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