==============================================================================
Reds 11, Phillies 7                                         2026-07-18 · #1097
at Pino Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            7    7   10    0
Cincinnati             11   11    6    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martín      ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Logar       1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
Craft       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Mattke  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Awoniyi     2b ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Alvarado    c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Ka'apan pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Israilov    3b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Grizzli pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Moor        lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Tabaracci   cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Vásquez pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chavez      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Santos  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   7  10   2   0   0   7   4   8   0   0  0.323
  2B: Logar (21), Awoniyi (21).
  SB: Moor (1).
  CS: Martín (1).
  a-Ran for Craft in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Alvarado in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Israilov in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Tabaracci in the 7th.
  e-Batted in the 6th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Levy        rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Núñez   ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dawkins     ss ......    4   3   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Morejón     3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-David   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Corozo  ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   2   1   0   0  0.500
Dilworth    c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Subhash     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Aguilar     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Goodwin ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Villalo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Warwick     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Taupaki     j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31  11   6   3   0   0  10   6  10   0   0  0.194
  2B: Morejón (3), Murakami (10), Warwick (10).
  SB: Morejón (3).
  HBP: Corozo (3).
  GIDP: Subhash (4).
  a-Struck out for Levy in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Morejón in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Gayton in the 6th.
  d-Batted in the 8th.
  e-Struck out in the 9th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chavez ..............    13    9  33%    1    2    2    2    3    0   43    -
Maynard .............     5    3  11%    1    2    2    1    1    0   14  2-1
Marte ...............    12   10  37%    1    2    2    2    5    0   40  2-1
Izoje (L, 0-2) ......     6    2   7%    3    5    5    1    1    0   18  2-2
Sippel ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    0    1    0   10  1-0

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aguilar (W, 12-6) ...    13   12  44%    3    1    1    0    4    0   42    -
Celso ...............    13    6  22%    5    5    5    3    1    0   54    -
Foxworth (F, 10) ....     9    9  33%    2    1    1    1    3    0   32  2-1

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Chavez (Outs 1-9) → Maynard (Outs 10-12) → Marte (Outs 13-22) → Izoje (Outs 23-24) → Sippel (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Alvarado (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Awoniyi (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martín (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moor (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tabaracci (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Craft (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Aguilar (Outs 1-12) → Celso (Outs 13-18) → Foxworth (Outs 19-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Morejón (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Levy (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted first; Phillies batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 456610.
  Powerplays: Phillies — Grizzlies NF (O17)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 5.00
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 1.83
     9 outs left: 2.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 2 Thomas Gayton Henri Dawkins (2B) 0–1 —
B 9 Dariel Morejón Henri Dawkins (1B) 0–2 —
B 9 Shelby Warwick Jackson Levy (3B) 0–3 —
B 11 Zachary Subhash Shelby Warwick (2B) 0–4 —
B 21 Norris Taupaki Dariel Morejón (3B) 0–5 —
B 21 Jaxson Goodwin Orlando Núñez (3B) 0–6 —
B 23 Henri Dawkins Blaise Dilworth (3B) 0–7 —
B 23 Henri Dawkins Norris Taupaki (2B) 0–8 —
B 23 Bret David Ed Tsoubanos (3B) 0–9 —
B 24 Emmanuel Murakami Henri Dawkins (3B) 0–10 —
B 24 Emmanuel Murakami Marco Corozo (1B) 0–11 —
T 3 Daniel Israilov Bright Awoniyi (3B) 1–11 1.38
T 16 Adhithya Tabaracci Bright Awoniyi (3B) 2–11 2.73
T 18 Derlis Alvarado Nicolas Martín (3B) 3–11 3.00
T 18 Marco Logar Alberto Vásquez (3B) 4–11 2.67
T 18 Bright Awoniyi Zach Grizzlies (3B) 5–11 2.33
T 18 Bright Awoniyi Jerome Ka'apana (2B) 6–11 2.00
T 20 Nicolas Martín Marco Logar (3B) 7–11 2.14
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 5.00
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 1.83
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Phillies — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Will Craft — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +39° · 272 ft Bright Awoniyi — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Marco Logar — double · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 280 ft Derlis Alvarado — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Daniel Israilov — single · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — single · EV 95 mph · LA +24° · 267 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Vitas Anthony — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +42° · 177 ft Nicolas Martín — fielders_choice · EV 74 mph · LA +6° · 70 ft Daniel Israilov — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Bright Awoniyi — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft Will Craft — single · EV 97 mph · LA +32° · 341 ft Sandy Santos — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 273 ft Nicolas Martín — single · EV 83 mph · LA +23° · 199 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA -2° · 58 ft Jahiem Moor — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +51° · 236 ft Derlis Alvarado — single · EV 81 mph · LA +18° · 153 ft Bright Awoniyi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 322 ft Nicolas Martín — single · EV 57 mph · LA +20° · 83 ft Jahiem Moor — single · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Ed Tsoubanos — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA -2° · 100 ft Jackson Levy — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 73 ft Henri Dawkins — fielders_choice · EV 66 mph · LA +6° · 63 ft Thomas Gayton — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -17° · 79 ft Zachary Subhash — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA +6° · 73 ft Dariel Morejón — double · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 158 ft Shelby Warwick — double · EV 104 mph · LA +15° · 218 ft Adam Patrick — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -6° · 74 ft Norris Taupaki — single · EV 68 mph · LA +19° · 114 ft Henri Dawkins — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA -11° · 80 ft Blaise Dilworth — fly_out · EV 60 mph · LA +27° · 119 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Bret David — single · EV 98 mph · LA +22° · 268 ft Emmanuel Murakami — double · EV 98 mph · LA +44° · 384 ft Jaxson Goodwin — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +24° · 197 ft Zachary Subhash — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 237 ft Henri Dawkins — single · EV 95 mph · LA +15° · 185 ft Zachary Subhash — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA -17° · 73 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
24% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 9.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+2.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marco Logar 92 / +28° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Bright Awoniyi 92 / +36° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Jahiem Moor 76 / -10° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Daniel Israilov 76 / +5° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Sandy Santos 92 / +27° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Reds
76% deserve-to-win  ·  8.7 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.3 vs expected
contact: 11.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-2.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dariel Morejón 92 / +14° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Zachary Subhash 92 / +22° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Shelby Warwick 104 / +15° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Ed Tsoubanos 105 / -2° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Jaxson Goodwin 82 / +24° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →