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Marlins 1, Red Sox 0                                        2026-07-18 · #1099
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   1    1    2    0
Boston                  0    0    4    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blackman    c  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Baird       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   3   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
  2B: Blackman (6).


RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tatum       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nytes       ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Falby       1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Hack        2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cordano     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Miranda ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Wolfe       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Castillo    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Rowley  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Pope    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Cameron ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Harrell pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Núñez   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Hodges  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Malard      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   0   4   0   0   0   0   4  11   0   0  0.167
  SB: Nytes (3).
  GIDP: Merrill (2), Malard (4).
  a-Walked for Cordano in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Castillo in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 4th.
  d-Walked for Pope in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Cameron in the 4th.
  f-Ran in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baird (W, 4-14) .....    27   27 100%    3    0    0    4   11    0   94    -

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo (L, 2-2) ...     3    1   4%    2    1    1    0    0    0   11    -

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Baird (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | —
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | —
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | —
CENTER FIELD (CF) | —
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | —

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-1)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-1)
CATCHER (C)       | Tatum (Outs 1-1)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-1)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Hack (Outs 1-1)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-1)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-1)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-1)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cordano (Outs 1-1)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Pfister (Outs 1-1)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 2:10 PM ET. Weather: 57°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain. seed 696339.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.11    Peak faced 0.12
    27 outs left: 0.11
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Jean Altamirano Ramon Blackman (2B) 1–0 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.11
Peak faced 0.12
27 outs left 0.11
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
3 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Treston Baird — line_out · EV 110 mph · LA +5° · 104 ft Ramon Blackman — double · EV 97 mph · LA +46° · 374 ft Jean Altamirano — single · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Aleksandar Tatum — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -15° · 67 ft Xzavier Wolfe — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +52° · 225 ft Andrés Castillo — fielders_choice · EV 56 mph · LA -8° · 53 ft Dexter Inniss — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Ivo Malard — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Jide Falby — single · EV 92 mph · LA -15° · 87 ft Jacob Hodges — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +38° · 337 ft Henri Merrill — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA +19° · 99 ft Raymond Rowley — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +49° · 336 ft Dexter Inniss — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Eliot Hack — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +27° · 202 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
18% deserve-to-win  ·  1.4 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 2.9 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jean Altamirano 88 / -12° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Treston Baird 110 / +5° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Ramon Blackman 97 / +46° Pull Double 2.0 → 2 -0.01
Red Sox
82% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 4.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jacob Hodges 93 / +38° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Jide Falby 92 / -15° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Dexter Inniss 76 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Raymond Rowley 92 / +49° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
Dexter Inniss 76 / +17° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
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