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Auckland Tailors 5, Melbourne Baseball Club 1               2046-04-25 · #1103
at Sabra Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Melbourne               1      0    1    2    0
Auckland                5      -    5    7    0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Brondello   ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Balko       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Irvine      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Milligan    c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Sinclair    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Bogaert rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rios    cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Mulliga c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Nwachuk ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
King        j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Gurriel     j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Talbot      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   8   0   0  0.074
  HBP: Mulligan (1).
  GIDP: Brondello (1).
  a-Entered at RF in the 3rd.
  b-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at C in the 7th.
  d-Entered at SS in the 9th.

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Evert       ss ......    3   0   2   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Rangi       cf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Petratos    1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Brockie pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rauf        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-Rogers  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Teh         rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Sutherl pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Brock       c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
White       3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Gauci       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Young   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Esson       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Vicelic ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Tolo    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Reath       j  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Rivera      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   5   7   3   0   0   4   8   9   0   0  0.269
  2B: Evert 2 (5), Petratos (7).
  CS: Reath (4).
  GIDP: White (1), Reath (1).
  a-Ran for Petratos in the 9th.
  b-Grounded out for Rauf in the 8th.
  c-Ran for Teh in the 7th.
  d-Singled for Gauci in the 7th.
  e-Batted for Esson in the 7th.
  f-Grounded out for Sutherland in the 8th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sinclair ............    30   25  93%    5    2    2    8    8    0   98    -
Campbell (L, 0-1) ...     4    2   7%    2    3    3    0    1    0   18  3-3

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Esson (W, 3-0) ......    29   27 100%    2    1    1    1    8    0  102    -

  Batting order: Auckland Tailors (home) batted first; Melbourne Baseball Club batted second.
  Seconds: MBC o26 (1-5).
  First pitch 6:00 PM PETT. Weather: 63°F · Wind in · Overcast · Heavy rain. seed 776979.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 19 Alex Young Ruairidh Sutherland (2B) 0–1
B 25 Colin Rangi Colin Rangi (3B) 0–2
B 25 Richard Evert Joe Brock (3B) 0–3
B 25 Richard Evert Colin Rangi (1B) 0–4
B 25 Bruno Reath Grant Brockie (3B) 0–5
T 22 Mario Balko Darren Brondello (3B) 1–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sabra Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 462' · RF 357' · 11' wall). Cavernous.
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
341' 462' 357' Mario Balko — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Pat King — single · EV 81 mph · LA +16° · 135 ft Yunieski Gurriel — fielders_choice · EV 65 mph · LA -3° · 62 ft Knox Nwachukwu — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +19° · 151 ft Darren Brondello — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -1° · 57 ft Shane Sinclair — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +38° · 277 ft Mario Balko — fly_out · EV 62 mph · LA +45° · 153 ft Rafael Rios — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -1° · 56 ft Knox Nwachukwu — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -15° · 78 ft Pat King — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Yunieski Gurriel — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA +2° · 64 ft Didi Bogaerts — error · EV 73 mph · LA -2° · 69 ft Brad Irvine — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Dean Milligan — single · EV 62 mph · LA +14° · 74 ft Rafael Rios — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 227 ft Pat King — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Knox Nwachukwu — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
341' 462' 357' Richard Evert — double · EV 97 mph · LA +25° · 287 ft Brendon Petratos — double · EV 96 mph · LA +17° · 206 ft Keat Teh — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +3° · 49 ft Martin White — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -17° · 57 ft Duop Gauci — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 84 ft Bruno Reath — single · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Joe Brock — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 76 ft Alex Young — single · EV 81 mph · LA +26° · 203 ft Duop Gauci — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -1° · 74 ft Martin White — single · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Brendon Petratos — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -3° · 57 ft Bruno Reath — double_play · EV 94 mph · LA +1° · 90 ft Richard Evert — double · EV 106 mph · LA +31° · 390 ft Bruno Reath — single · EV 102 mph · LA +4° · 97 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Melbourne Baseball Club
21% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 6.4 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-4.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mario Balko 92 / +17° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.01
Knox Nwachukwu 78 / +19° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Pat King 76 / +17° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Knox Nwachukwu 76 / +17° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.60
Dean Milligan 62 / +14° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Auckland Tailors
79% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 8.2 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Martin White 52 / +1° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Richard Evert 97 / +25° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.84
Brendon Petratos 96 / +17° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.68
Alex Young 81 / +26° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Bruno Reath 52 / +15° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
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