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Cubs 10, Nationals 3                                        2026-07-22 · #1135
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                10   10    8    1
Washington              3    3    6    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shurtleff   lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  a-Lamas   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Segovia     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Mueller pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Santana     2b ......    4   2   3   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.750
Casey       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
May         1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Myers       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lamas       cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Campaz      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Nealon  ph ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Kurth   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Palermo ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Seol    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  10   8   2   0   0  10   7   8   0   0  0.258
  2B: Santana (13), Nealon (6).
  SB: Santana (10).
  CS: Campaz (2).
  E: Verhoeven (2).
  a-Ran for Shurtleff in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Segovia in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Campaz in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Kurth in the 6th.
  f-Struck out in the 9th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Giroud      ss ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Burrows     c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Houston pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Devezin     rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Thompkins   cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Morel       3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Baloy       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Bothwell    p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Alvarad ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   3   6   1   0   0   3   1  13   0   0  0.200
  2B: Giroud (3).
  HBP: Burrows (2).
  GIDP: Devezin (4), Alvarado (7).
  a-Ran for Burrows in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out in the 6th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz (W, 9-6) .....    13   12  44%    1    0    0    1    8    0   45    -
Schnugg .............    13   10  37%    4    2    2    0    3    0   41  1-0
Espinosa (F, 5) .....     5    5  19%    0    1    1    0    2    0   24  3-1

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bothwell (L, 0-4) ...    31   21  78%    7    9    9    6    6    0  101    -
McMurray ............     7    6  22%    1    1    1    1    2    0   25  1-1

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-12) → Schnugg (Outs 13-22) → Espinosa (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Myers (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lamas (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Bothwell (Outs 1-21) → McMurray (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Morel (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 6:40 PM ET. Weather: 85°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 550268.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O13)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 8.00
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.83
     9 outs left: 3.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Michael Mueller Michael Mueller (3B) 1–0 —
T 8 Jaume Santana Davion Kurth (3B) 2–0 —
T 8 Jaume Santana Víctor Lamas (2B) 3–0 —
T 8 Douglas Casey Tomas Heinze (2B) 4–0 —
T 12 Isaiah Campaz Douglas Casey (2B) 5–0 —
T 18 Phillip Nealon Tomas Heinze (3B) 6–0 —
T 18 Phillip Nealon Jaume Santana (2B) 7–0 —
T 18 Phillip Nealon Harold Palermo (1B) 8–0 —
T 21 Jaume Santana Phillip Nealon (2B) 9–0 —
T 26 Phillip Nealon Jaume Santana (3B) 10–0 —
B 20 Óscar Giroud Yoel Morel (3B) 10–1 4.29
B 20 Óscar Giroud Rill Devezin (1B) 10–2 3.86
B 23 Sammy Houston Sammy Houston (2B) 10–3 6.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 8.00
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.83
9 outs left 3.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Cubs — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Teófilo Segovia — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Jaume Santana — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 334 ft Isaiah Campaz — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +14° · 104 ft Michael Mueller — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +16° · 138 ft Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -27° · 95 ft Phillip Nealon — double · EV 98 mph · LA +34° · 357 ft Brian Verhoeven — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -3° · 95 ft Harold Palermo — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 162 ft Douglas Casey — single · EV 86 mph · LA -13° · 82 ft Isaiah Campaz — single · EV 100 mph · LA -23° · 95 ft Tomas Heinze — single · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 364 ft Víctor Lamas — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 293 ft Phillip Nealon — single · EV 97 mph · LA +8° · 109 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +3° · 80 ft Mikel Lamas — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 223 ft Michael Mueller — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +21° · 206 ft Tomas Heinze — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 363 ft Jaume Santana — double · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 221 ft Mikel Lamas — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +22° · 238 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Marcos Pastore — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Basil Burrows — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 143 ft Damion Thompkins — line_out · EV 54 mph · LA +21° · 77 ft Júnior Alvarado — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA +14° · 63 ft Sammy Houston — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Óscar Giroud — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +26° · 192 ft Rill Devezin — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Yoel Morel — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft Yoel Morel — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Damion Thompkins — single · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 52 mph · LA -7° · 49 ft Óscar Giroud — double · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 337 ft Marcos Pastore — error · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Marcos Pastore — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
95% deserve-to-win  ·  13.0 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 18.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-8.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tomas Heinze 100 / +32° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Mikel Lamas 100 / +17° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Víctor Lamas 100 / +24° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Jaume Santana 100 / +28° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Jaume Santana 95 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Nationals
5% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 6.6 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-0.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Devezin 52 / -7° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Óscar Giroud 92 / +42° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Damion Thompkins 76 / +3° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Marcos Pastore 92 / +31° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Kendry Baloy 76 / +17° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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