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Phillies 3, Orcas 2                                         2026-07-25 · #1173
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            3    3    6    0
Vancouver               2    2    6    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martín      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mattke      1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Grizzlies   cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Andrade     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Awoniyi     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Israilov    3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Moor        2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Craft   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tabaracci   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bowen       p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Borges  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Ka'apan pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Santos  ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  e-Vásquez pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Anthony     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cubas       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   6   1   0   0   2   3   3   0   0  0.231
  2B: Israilov (24).
  SB: Santos (13).
  CS: Grizzlies (7).
  GIDP: Andrade (1), Tabaracci (6), Bowen (1), Cubas (2).
  a-Batted for Moor in the 5th.
  b-Singled in the 6th.
  c-Ran in the 9th.
  d-Batted in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Borges in the 6th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Badger      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Beigel      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Millar  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Balotelli   2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Granber pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Krickstein  1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Teeguar pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Edmonson    c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Irvin   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Quintero    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Mendez  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Martínez    p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Valdivi pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Noonan  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cuéllar     j  ......    2   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Roker       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   6   0   1   0   1   3  10   0   0  0.222
  3B: Cuéllar (1).
  SB: Valdivia (5).
  CS: Peavy (7), Valdivia (2).
  GIDP: Alonso-Corcelles (7), Irvin (5).
  a-Walked for Beigel in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Balotelli in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Krickstein in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Edmonson in the 4th.
  e-Batted for Quintero in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Martínez in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Millar in the 4th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bowen ...............     9    9  33%    4    0    0    0    3    0   43    -
Chavez (W, 6-7) .....    15   13  48%    2    1    1    2    5    0   48  1-0
Izoje ...............     5    5  19%    0    1    1    1    2    0   17  2-1

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Martínez (L, 4-3) ...    30   25  93%    6    3    3    3    3    0  101    -

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bowen (Outs 1-9) → Chavez (Outs 10-22) → Izoje (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Moor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martín (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tabaracci (Outs 1-27)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Martínez (Outs 1-25)
CATCHER (C)       | Edmonson (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Krickstein (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Balotelli (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Beigel (Outs 1-25)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted first; Phillies batted second.
  First pitch 1:05 PM PT. Weather: 70°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 545313.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 16 Moisés Valdivia Ivan Teeguarden (3B) 0–1 —
B 26 Andrea Peavy Moisés Valdivia (3B) 0–2 —
T 19 Bright Awoniyi Jerome Ka'apana (2B) 1–2 0.75
T 23 Sergio Cubas Anthony Mattke (3B) 2–2 0.75
T 25 Bryan Andrade Sandy Santos (3B) 3–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Phillies — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Bryan Andrade — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Anthony Mattke — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Bright Awoniyi — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Daniel Israilov — double · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Jahiem Moor — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -23° · 49 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Nicolas Martín — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft James Bowen — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA -4° · 54 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Devron Borges — single · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 93 ft Sergio Cubas — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -13° · 56 ft James Bowen — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -16° · 56 ft Nicolas Martín — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +50° · 240 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +16° · 146 ft Bright Awoniyi — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Sandy Santos — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 233 ft Bryan Andrade — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA -22° · 61 ft Bright Awoniyi — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA -10° · 52 ft James Bowen — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 159 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Louis Badger — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 57 mph · LA +15° · 64 ft William Krickstein — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft Jonás Quintero — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -15° · 75 ft Sandy Martínez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Yerry Cuéllar — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 185 ft Stuart Irvin — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Ivan Teeguarden — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 214 ft Prakash Granberry — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 149 ft Karim Balotelli — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 230 ft Louis Badger — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 130 ft Moisés Valdivia — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Yerry Cuéllar — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +30° · 215 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -16° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
64% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 7.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Daniel Israilov 92 / +40° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Adhithya Tabaracci 82 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Zach Grizzlies 92 / +7° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Adhithya Tabaracci 76 / +17° Pull Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Anthony Mattke 76 / +13° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Orcas
36% deserve-to-win  ·  3.2 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 7.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yerry Cuéllar 100 / +14° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles 92 / +21° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Ivan Teeguarden 92 / +20° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Louis Badger 92 / +11° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Sandy Martínez 76 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
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