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Astros 2, Nationals 1                                       2026-07-26 · #1176
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Washington              1    1    5    0
Houston                 2    2    3    0

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  a-Fabra   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Corrales    cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Miguelito   lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Burrows     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Giroud      ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Devezin     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Thompkins   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Bartlet ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cruz        3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Abadía      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mayer       j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Ebun        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   1   5   1   0   0   0   2  12   0   0  0.179
  2B: Pastore (13).
  CS: Fabra (9).
  GIDP: Cruz (8).
  a-Ran for Pastore in the 7th.
  b-Grounded out for Thompkins in the 9th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pitchford   3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
O'Connor    2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sarkisian   p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Morales     1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Braun       rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Moros       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   5   2   3   2   0   0   2   2   1   0   1  0.600
  2B: O'Connor (7), Thom (12).
  CS: O'Connor (5).


NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abadía (L, 3-18) ....     7    5  19%    3    2    2    2    1    0   26    -

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sarkisian (W, 2-0) ..    26   24  89%    4    0    0    2   11    0  102    -
Hammerbeck ..........     3    3  11%    0    1    1    0    1    0   13  3-1

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-5)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-5)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-5)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-5)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-5)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cruz (Outs 1-5)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-5)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-5)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Corrales (Outs 1-5)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-5)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sarkisian (Outs 1-24) → Hammerbeck (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pitchford (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Moros (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Braun (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted second; Nationals batted first.
  First pitch 5:00 PM CT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 505576.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.24
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 24 Bobby Ebun Devron San Miguelito (3B) 1–0 —
B 2 Raz Pitchford Clark Sarkisian (3B) 1–1 0.12
B 5 Iapani Thom Brayan Braun (2B) 1–2 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.24
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Nationals — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Renaldo Corrales — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +21° · 193 ft Damion Thompkins — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +18° · 153 ft Bobby Ebun — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 219 ft Erwin Crowdus — single · EV 79 mph · LA +7° · 75 ft Cooper Bartlett — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +34° · 257 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -4° · 59 ft José Cruz — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -6° · 60 ft Frickson Abadía — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 187 ft Tyler Mayer — single · EV 94 mph · LA +14° · 162 ft Bobby Ebun — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +32° · 241 ft Marcos Pastore — double · EV 85 mph · LA +15° · 148 ft Renaldo Corrales — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +1° · 65 ft Óscar Giroud — single · EV 82 mph · LA -16° · 78 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
4 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Dante O'Connor — double · EV 112 mph · LA +20° · 326 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Iapani Thom — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 286 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
33% deserve-to-win  ·  2.0 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.0 vs expected
contact: 6.2 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Pastore 85 / +15° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.42
Bobby Ebun 92 / +20° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Frickson Abadía 92 / +17° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Erwin Crowdus 79 / +7° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Óscar Giroud 82 / -16° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Astros
67% deserve-to-win  ·  2.9 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 4.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Iapani Thom 100 / +23° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Jeyland Morales 100 / -7° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Mirko Moros 88 / +2° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Dante O'Connor 112 / +20° Center Double 1.7 → 2 +0.29
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