==============================================================================
Brewers 9, Cubs 7                                           2026-07-26 · #1178
at Bussaglia Grounds
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 7    7    8    0
Milwaukee               9    9    5    1

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shurtleff   lf ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Lamas   pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Solis       ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   1   0  0.333
Segovia     rf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Myers       3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Palermo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Casey       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Hollowe pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
McCullough  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Santana pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Sarkissian  2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Mueller pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Campaz      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Kurth   ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Sapriss ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   7   8   1   0   0   6   5  16   1   0  0.258
  2B: Myers (12).
  CS: Shurtleff (1).
  Squeeze: Segovia.
  a-Ran for Shurtleff in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Myers in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Casey in the 4th.
  d-Ran for McCullough in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Sarkissian in the 3rd.
  f-Batted for Mueller in the 4th.
  g-Batted for Palermo in the 6th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Trejo       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Johnsto pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Espinoza    3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Ishida  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Mesidor     c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Williams    ss ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.333
Ebun        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  c-Hernand ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Irving  ph ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Flores      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Gentry  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Yani        lf ......    0   3   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   .000
Saravia     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Penicko pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Struthe ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  19   9   5   2   0   1   9   7   7   0   1  0.263
  2B: Irving (47), Nava (8).
  HR: Williams (8), off Campaz.
  SB: Mesidor (5).
  CS: Mesidor (3).
  E: Espinoza (4).
  a-Ran for Trejo in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Espinoza in the 5th.
  c-Grounded out for Ebun in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Kaplan in the 4th.
  e-Grounded out for Flores in the 6th.
  f-Ran for Struthers in the 7th.
  g-Walked for Ishida in the 5th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz (L, 9-7) .....    16   12  44%    2    5    5    3    7    1   56    -
Catalano ............    10    6  22%    3    4    3    4    0    0   35  1-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun (W, 17-3) ......    26   17  63%    8    7    3    4    9    0   84    -
Lonigro .............     9   10  37%    0    0    0    1    7    0   44  3-0

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-18)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-12) → Catalano (Outs 13-18)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-18)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Casey (Outs 1-18)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-18)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Myers (Outs 1-18)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-18)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-18)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | McCullough (Outs 1-18)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-18)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-17) → Lonigro (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Yani (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 86°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 514753.
  Powerplays: Brewers — Penickova NF (O24)
  Walk-Back runs: off Catalano 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.33
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 8 Eddie Solis Michael Mueller (3B) 1–0 —
T 11 Floyd Myers Víctor Lamas (3B) 2–0 —
T 12 Isaiah Campaz Harold Palermo (3B) 3–0 —
T 13 Eddie Solis Maurice Hollowell (3B) 4–0 —
T 17 Jaume Santana Víctor Lamas (3B) 5–0 —
T 17 Jaume Santana Teófilo Segovia (2B) 6–0 —
T 17 Isaiah Campaz Tomas Heinze (3B) 7–0 —
B 11 Clifford Irving Graydon Yani (2B) 7–1 1.31
B 11 Clifford Irving Graydon Yani (2B) 7–2 1.12
B 12 Jesse Williams Clifford Irving (2B) 7–3 1.00
B 12 Jesse Williams Toshihiro Ishida (1B) 7–4 0.80
B 12 Jesse Williams Jesse Williams (HR) 7–5 0.60
B 12 Stan Mesidor Jesse Williams (3B) 7–6 0.40
B 18 Percy Nava Clifford Irving (3B) 7–7 0.33
B 18 Percy Nava Graydon Yani (2B) 7–8 0.00
B 18 Percy Nava Raul Johnston (1B) 7–9 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.33
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Cubs — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 74 mph · LA +17° · 124 ft Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +0° · 80 ft Douglas Casey — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 87 ft Josh McCullough — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +10° · 97 ft Samuel Sarkissian — single · EV 81 mph · LA +20° · 164 ft Víctor Lamas — error · EV 84 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 117 ft Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 125 ft Eddie Solis — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 73 ft Floyd Myers — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 197 ft Davion Kurth — single · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Isaiah Campaz — single · EV 62 mph · LA +15° · 78 ft Jaume Santana — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -16° · 52 ft Eddie Solis — single · EV 85 mph · LA +19° · 179 ft Teófilo Segovia — fielders_choice · EV 72 mph · LA -4° · 68 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
344' 415' 304' Jesse Williams — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 116 mph · LA +10° · 189 ft German Hernandez — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 277 ft Noel Gentry — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -8° · 63 ft Percy Nava — double · EV 112 mph · LA +18° · 289 ft Sergio Saravia — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +18° · 181 ft Jesse Williams — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +28° · 410 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 110 mph · LA +8° · 133 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 111 mph · LA +23° · 359 ft Jesse Williams — ground_out · EV 110 mph · LA +5° · 105 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
13% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.3 vs expected
contact: 6.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+2.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Floyd Myers 100 / +15° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Davion Kurth 76 / -15° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Isaiah Campaz 62 / +15° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Josh McCullough 85 / +10° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Jaume Santana 76 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Brewers
87% deserve-to-win  ·  9.4 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 12.0 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jesse Williams 111 / +28° Center Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
German Hernandez 100 / +22° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Sergio Saravia 88 / +18° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Clifford Irving 111 / +23° Center Single 1.7 → 1 -0.72
Jesse Williams 110 / +5° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →