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Red Sox 4, Orioles 3                                        2026-07-28 · #1201
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  4    4    4    0
Baltimore               3    3    4    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Merrill     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Suazo       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pfister     cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Núñez       3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Nytes       ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Harrell     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Pope    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Falby       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hack        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Wittenberg  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Rowley  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Miranda ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Hodges  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  20   4   4   1   0   0   3   4   8   0   0  0.200
  2B: Nytes (10).
  a-Ran for Harrell in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Wittenberg in the 4th.
  c-Grounded out in the 7th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maloney     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kautz       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Schloss pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Samudio     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Mateer  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kagame      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
Ison        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Maciejc ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tejeda      cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Lichnov pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Purchase    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Wayar       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  f-Melch   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-López   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Alison  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Sigourn pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Mills   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Adams       j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   3   4   0   0   0   3   4  10   0   2  0.160
  HBP: Maloney (4).
  a-Ran for Kautz in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Samudio in the 5th.
  c-Struck out for Ison in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Tejeda in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Purchase in the 3rd.
  f-Batted for Barba in the 3rd.
  g-Ran in the 3rd.
  h-Struck out for López in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Schloss in the 8th.
  j-Ran for Mateer in the 9th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wittenberg (W, 1-1) .    16   14  52%    4    2    2    2    2    0   50    -
Martín ..............    14   13  48%    0    1    1    2    8    0   61  2-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wayar (L, 6-4) ......    17   12  44%    3    3    3    3    3    0   71    -
Barella .............     7    5  19%    1    1    1    1    5    0   19  2-1

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wittenberg (Outs 1-14) → Martín (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wayar (Outs 1-12) → Barella (Outs 13-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kagame (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tejeda (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Purchase (Outs 1-17)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Red Sox batted second.
  First pitch 2:10 PM ET. Weather: 96°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 511942.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.50
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 10 Leonardo Tejeda Ulises Barba (3B) 0–1 —
B 13 Rill Kautz Nicolas Lichnovsky (3B) 0–2 —
B 25 Mackenzie Sigourney Dan Mills (3B) 0–3 —
T 3 Inman Nytes Walter Núñez (1B) 1–3 0.38
T 3 Mark Harrell Inman Nytes (2B) 2–3 0.25
T 11 Walter Núñez Jacob Hodges (3B) 3–3 0.19
T 17 Daylan Miranda Ferdi Pope (3B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.50
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Red Sox — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Henri Merrill — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA -2° · 91 ft Pancho Pfister — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +17° · 204 ft Walter Núñez — single · EV 106 mph · LA +6° · 101 ft Inman Nytes — double · EV 88 mph · LA +21° · 208 ft Mark Harrell — single · EV 90 mph · LA +42° · 325 ft Eliot Hack — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +18° · 212 ft Daylan Miranda — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 179 ft Walter Núñez — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +44° · 350 ft Pancho Pfister — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +3° · 68 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Rill Kautz — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +40° · 366 ft Sidney Foust — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +32° · 345 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA +2° · 64 ft Leonardo Tejeda — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 226 ft Dylan Purchase — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA -9° · 86 ft Jason Adams — single · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 167 ft Andre Melch — line_out · EV 66 mph · LA +19° · 107 ft Zaimir Schloss — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — fielders_choice · EV 94 mph · LA -8° · 89 ft Leonardo Tejeda — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 100 ft Dyllan Ison — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 316 ft Sidney Foust — single · EV 93 mph · LA -14° · 89 ft Rill Kautz — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 237 ft Sidney Foust — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 219 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
41% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 7.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-2.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pancho Pfister 95 / +17° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Walter Núñez 94 / +44° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Inman Nytes 88 / +21° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Eliot Hack 95 / +18° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Pancho Pfister 72 / +3° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Orioles
59% deserve-to-win  ·  6.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -3.0 vs expected
contact: 8.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-4.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Kautz 96 / +40° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Sidney Foust 98 / +32° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Dyllan Ison 92 / +34° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Sidney Foust 95 / +19° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Sidney Foust 93 / -14° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
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