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Rockies 6, Beavers 5                                        2026-08-03 · #1265
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Colorado                6    6    4    0
Portland                5    5    9    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martinho    1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ruidíaz     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Otamendi    rf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Porteño     2b ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Diatta      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Evett       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mondragón   c  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Denson      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Poling      lf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   9   6   4   3   0   1   6   0   3   0   0  0.444
  2B: Otamendi (11), Mondragón (9), Poling (13).
  HR: Porteño (7), off Giammalva.
  HBP: Poling (6).


BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Turenne     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
Hydrick     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Clement ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Guerra      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Aktaş       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Fuenzal pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Zamora      c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Streko      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Waston  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Giammalva   p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  d-Harper  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Briaud  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Sabella pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Pawsat  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  h-Vidal   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Schilli ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Velazquez   j  ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  1.000
Totals                  27   5   9   1   0   0   4   6  11   1   1  0.333
  2B: Velazquez (5).
  SB: Fuenzalida (2).
  CS: Redmayne (3).
  HBP: Holzworth (3).
  GIDP: Aktaş (6).
  a-Grounded out for Tessema in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Holzworth in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Streko in the 3rd.
  d-Singled for Redmayne in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Harper in the 5th.
  g-Batted for Waston in the 5th.
  h-Ran in the 5th.
  i-Batted for Redmayne in the 6th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Denson (W, 14-6) ....    30   25  93%    8    5    5    5    9    0  110    -
Mejia ...............     3    2   7%    0    0    0    1    2    0    7  2-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Giammalva (L, 5-13) .     9    4  15%    4    6    2    0    3    1   35    -

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Denson (Outs 1-25) → Mejia (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mondragón (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Porteño (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Diatta (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Poling (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Evett (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-4)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Giammalva (Outs 1-4)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-4)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-4)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-4)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-4)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Guerra (Outs 1-4)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Turenne (Outs 1-4)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-4)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hydrick (Outs 1-4)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Rockies batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 71°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 567484.
  Walk-Back runs: off Giammalva 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.67
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 7 Holcombe Hydrick Aaron Holzworth (3B) 0–1 —
B 10 Gabriel Harper Agustín Waston (3B) 0–2 —
B 14 Levar De Turenne Enrique Sabella (3B) 0–3 —
B 25 Wilmer Velazquez Álvaro Vidal (3B) 0–4 —
B 25 Wilmer Velazquez Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 0–5 —
T 0 Mario Porteño Wesly Otamendi (2B) 1–5 0.56
T 0 Mario Porteño Mario Porteño (HR) 2–5 0.44
T 3 Aníbal Mondragón Mario Porteño (3B) 3–5 0.38
T 3 Markeylin Martinho Aníbal Mondragón (2B) 4–5 0.25
T 4 Reed Poling Markeylin Martinho (2B) 5–5 0.13
T 4 Reed Poling Reed Poling (1B) 6–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.67
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Rockies — Batted Balls
5 BIP· 0 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Wesly Otamendi — double · EV 115 mph · LA +16° · 279 ft Mario Porteño — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Aníbal Mondragón — double · EV 111 mph · LA +32° · 438 ft Markeylin Martinho — error · EV 81 mph · LA +1° · 77 ft Reed Poling — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 189 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 147 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -5° · 49 ft Val Clement — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +31° · 203 ft Sydney Redmayne — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Gabriel Harper — single · EV 52 mph · LA +13° · 60 ft Wilmer Velazquez — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +18° · 153 ft Ludlow Schillig — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 66 ft Enrique Sabella — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Aaron Holzworth — single · EV 78 mph · LA +12° · 96 ft Donis Zamora — single · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Sydney Redmayne — single · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Kyron Giammalva — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -16° · 55 ft Wilmer Velazquez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 87 ft Wilmer Velazquez — double · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 220 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
44% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 9.0 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Reed Poling 100 / +14° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Wesly Otamendi 115 / +16° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Mario Porteño 119 / +40° Pull Home Run 3.6 → 4 +0.36
Markeylin Martinho 81 / +1° Pull Reached on Error 0.3 → 0 -0.30
Aníbal Mondragón 111 / +32° Center Double 2.2 → 2 -0.25
Beavers
56% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 5.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+3.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wilmer Velazquez 92 / +20° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Donis Zamora 76 / -8° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Sydney Redmayne 76 / +5° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Gabriel Harper 52 / +13° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Wilmer Velazquez 80 / +18° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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