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Diamondbacks 13, Marlins 2                                  2026-08-04 · #1268
at Arizona Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Miami                   2      0    2    6    0
Arizona                13      -   13   12    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Corzo       3b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Enquist     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Yanagi      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Suárez      2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Mothudi     1b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Suggs       ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Mangin      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Dibert      lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Chieh-y ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   2   6   2   0   0   2   1  11   0   0  0.207
  2B: Corzo (7), Dibert (6).
  SB: Suggs (10).
  CS: Suárez (14), Mangin (10).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

DIAMONDBACKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Smashey     p  ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Schmelz pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
McNutt      lf ......    5   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.200
Pierre-Loui 3b ......    5   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.400
Bektas      1b ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Linton      rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.250
Foyth       cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Ullstro ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Aogo        2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Gronows pr ......    2   3   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Caniza      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Tanabe  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
O'Connell   ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Randall pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Pope    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Alderma ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Baxter  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Halstea ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Manasse     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Galekovic   j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  33  13  12   4   1   0  13   8   6   0   0  0.364
  2B: Pierre-Louis (4), Linton (8), Foyth (14), Gronowski (15).
  3B: Smashey (1).
  SB: McNutt (10), Gronowski (20).
  CS: Manasse (1).
  HBP: Gronowski (6).
  Squeeze: McNutt.
  a-Ran for Smashey in the 6th.
  b-Walked for Foyth in the 8th.
  c-Ran for Aogo in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Caniza in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for O'Connell in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Tanabe in the 6th.
  g-Walked for Randall in the 8th.
  h-Ran for Alderman in the 8th.
  i-Singled in the 8th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Yanagi ..............    27   20  74%    9    7    5    4    4    0   79    -
Offord (L, 1-4) .....    14    7  26%    3    6    6    4    2    0   60  1-1

DIAMONDBACKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Smashey (W, 15-9) ...    16   15  56%    3    1    1    1    4    0   60    -
Wilkins (F, 12) .....    14   12  44%    3    1    1    0    7    0   47    -

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Yanagi (Outs 1-20) → Offord (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mothudi (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mangin (Outs 1-27)

DIAMONDBACKS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Smashey (Outs 1-15) → Wilkins (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Caniza (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bektas (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Aogo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pierre-Louis (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | O'Connell (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | McNutt (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foyth (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Linton (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Diamondbacks (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  Seconds: MIA o24 (2-13).
  First pitch 6:00 PM MT. Weather: 99°F · Wind out · Clear · Dry. seed 107462.
  Powerplays: Marlins — Chieh-yu NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.56    Peak faced 9.00
    27 outs left: 1.56
    18 outs left: 2.17
     9 outs left: 4.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Ryan Pierre-Louis Miguel McNutt (2B) 0–1 —
B 4 Leverton Aogo Phillip Bektas (2B) 0–2 —
B 7 Ron Gronowski Anderson Randall (1B) 0–3 —
B 7 Ron Gronowski Ron Gronowski (3B) 0–4 —
B 7 Dennis Manasse Ron Gronowski (2B) 0–5 —
B 20 Ryan Pierre-Louis Wallace Schmelzle (2B) 0–6 —
B 20 Ryan Pierre-Louis Phillip Bektas (1B) 0–7 —
B 20 Miguel McNutt Ryan Pierre-Louis (2B) 0–8 —
B 23 Miguel Linton Shyheim Baxter (3B) 0–9 —
B 23 Miguel Linton Ron Gronowski (2B) 0–10 —
B 23 Miguel Linton Irving Ullstrom (1B) 0–11 —
B 23 Gregg Halstead Miguel Linton (2B) 0–12 —
B 25 Miguel McNutt Gregg Halstead (3B) 0–13 —
T 7 Jason Enquist Jacobe Mothudi (3B) 1–13 1.95
T 23 Alex Dibert Wilmer Corzo (3B) 2–13 9.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.56
Peak faced 9.00
27 outs left 1.56
18 outs left 2.17
9 outs left 4.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Arizona Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 340' · CF 429' · RF 341' · 8' wall). Balanced.
Crow's Nest Ivy Wall
Marlins — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
340' 429' 341' Ramon Blackman — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +38° · 274 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 80 mph · LA -1° · 76 ft Carson Suggs — single · EV 81 mph · LA +6° · 77 ft Jason Enquist — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +28° · 213 ft Jacobe Mothudi — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 126 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -5° · 83 ft Jason Enquist — single · EV 79 mph · LA +17° · 140 ft Alex Dibert — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +33° · 232 ft Devon Mangin — fielders_choice · EV 82 mph · LA -19° · 78 ft Wilmer Corzo — double · EV 96 mph · LA +24° · 279 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +3° · 90 ft Kendall Suárez — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Wilmer Corzo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Carson Suggs — ground_out · EV 55 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Alex Dibert — double · EV 95 mph · LA +28° · 297 ft Ramon Blackman — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft
Diamondbacks — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 7 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
340' 429' 341' Damian Smashey — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 246 ft Ryan Pierre-Louis — single · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 238 ft Phillip Bektas — single · EV 100 mph · LA -12° · 95 ft Miguel Linton — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Leverton Aogo — single · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 250 ft Yomar Caniza — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -19° · 79 ft Ron Gronowski — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 204 ft Dennis Manasse — single · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 198 ft Will Galekovic — single · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Anderson Randall — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Ivan Pope — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 95 ft Gregg Halstead — single · EV 75 mph · LA +23° · 161 ft Joao Foyth — double · EV 110 mph · LA +19° · 297 ft Miguel Linton — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Phillip Bektas — ground_out · EV 118 mph · LA -0° · 112 ft Ryan Pierre-Louis — error · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 151 ft Ron Gronowski — fly_out · EV 115 mph · LA +15° · 263 ft Dennis Manasse — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 250 ft Joao Foyth — line_out · EV 106 mph · LA +26° · 352 ft Ryan Pierre-Louis — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 154 ft Miguel McNutt — single · EV 100 mph · LA +0° · 95 ft Miguel Linton — double · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 441 ft Miguel McNutt — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +41° · 307 ft Miguel McNutt — fly_out · EV 119 mph · LA +57° · 480 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
2% deserve-to-win  ·  2.3 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 7.4 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wilmer Corzo 96 / +24° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Alex Dibert 95 / +28° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Kendall Suárez 80 / -1° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Carson Suggs 81 / +6° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Jacobe Mothudi 84 / +13° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Diamondbacks
98% deserve-to-win  ·  17.9 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  -4.9 vs expected
contact: 24.7 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (-6.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Joao Foyth 106 / +26° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Damian Smashey 100 / +19° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.58
Ron Gronowski 115 / +15° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.52
Dennis Manasse 100 / +19° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Ryan Pierre-Louis 100 / +11° Pull Reached on Error 1.3 → 0 -1.25
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