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Rockies 20, Beavers 5                                       2026-08-04 · #1270
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Colorado               20   20   18    0
Portland                5    5    7    1

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goss        lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Poling      1b ......    5   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.400
Grimes      p  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.250
Diatta      rf ......    3   4   2   1   0   1   4   1   1   0   0  0.667
Kaiuway     3b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Ruidíaz     2b ......    4   4   2   2   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.500
Porteño     c  ......    4   4   3   2   1   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.750
Otamendi    cf ......    5   2   3   2   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.600
Martinho    ss ......    5   1   3   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.600
  a-Conover ph ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Totals                  39  20  18  10   1   2  18   6   8   0   0  0.462
  2B: Poling (14), Diatta (33), Ruidíaz 2 (11), Porteño 2 (14), Otamendi 2 (13), Martinho (52), Conover (1).
  3B: Porteño (2).
  HR: Goss (16), off Moulton; Diatta (19), off Henríquez.
  SB: Otamendi (9).
  CS: Poling (3).
  HBP: Diatta (3).
  a-Batted in the 3rd.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Henríquez   p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.333
Vahaly      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turenne     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fuenzalida  lf ......    2   3   2   0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Guerra      2b ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Aktaş       3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Holzworth   1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zamora      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Streko      cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
  a-Clement ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   5   7   3   0   1   5   1  10   0   1  0.241
  2B: Guerra 2 (13), Aktaş (2).
  HR: Fuenzalida (4), off Grimes.
  CS: Guerra (9).
  E: Henríquez (1).
  GIDP: Aktaş (7).
  a-Struck out in the 6th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Grimes (W, 7-0) .....    14   13  48%    3    2    1    0    5    1   62    -
Schramm .............    15   13  48%    4    3    3    1    4    0   54    -
Malin ...............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    3    -

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henríquez ...........    12    5  19%    7    7    1    1    0    1   49    -
Moulton .............    14    9  33%    4    5    4    2    4    1   50  1-1
Reyes (L, 0-5) ......    14    9  33%    4    5    5    3    3    0   49  2-2
Hydrick .............     6    4  15%    3    3    3    0    1    0   19  2-2

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Grimes (Outs 1-13) → Schramm (Outs 14-26) → Malin (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Porteño (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Poling (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Kaiuway (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Diatta (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-5) → Moulton (Outs 6-14) → Reyes (Outs 15-23) → Hydrick (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Rockies batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM PT. Weather: 73°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 559339.
  Walk-Back runs: off Grimes 1, off Henríquez 1, off Moulton 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.33    Peak faced 48.00
    27 outs left: 2.33
    18 outs left: 3.17
     9 outs left: 6.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 2 John Diatta Hunter Grimes (1B) 1–0 —
T 2 John Diatta John Diatta (HR) 2–0 —
T 3 Marco Ruidíaz John Diatta (3B) 3–0 —
T 3 Mario Porteño Marco Ruidíaz (1B) 4–0 —
T 3 Wesly Otamendi Mario Porteño (3B) 5–0 —
T 5 Wesly Otamendi Markeylin Martinho (2B) 6–0 —
T 5 Mario Porteño Wesly Otamendi (2B) 7–0 —
T 5 Marco Ruidíaz Mario Porteño (2B) 8–0 —
T 6 Hunter Grimes Marco Ruidíaz (3B) 9–0 —
T 8 Ahkhari Goss John Diatta (2B) 10–0 —
T 8 Ahkhari Goss Ahkhari Goss (HR) 11–0 —
T 8 Garrett Conover Ahkhari Goss (3B) 12–0 —
T 14 Markeylin Martinho Marco Ruidíaz (2B) 13–0 —
T 15 Hunter Grimes Mario Porteño (3B) 14–0 —
T 20 Wesly Otamendi Garrett Conover (3B) 15–0 —
T 20 Wesly Otamendi Justin Kaiuway (2B) 16–0 —
T 20 Markeylin Martinho Wesly Otamendi (2B) 17–0 —
T 24 John Diatta Mario Porteño (2B) 18–0 —
T 24 John Diatta Marco Ruidíaz (1B) 19–0 —
T 24 Hunter Grimes John Diatta (2B) 20–0 —
B 1 Jaime Fuenzalida Jaime Fuenzalida (HR) 20–1 2.31
B 2 Yadier Guerra Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 20–2 2.28
B 19 Yadier Guerra Jaime Fuenzalida (1B) 20–3 6.75
B 19 Dawood Aktaş Yadier Guerra (2B) 20–4 6.38
B 21 Mekhi Streko Dawood Aktaş (2B) 20–5 8.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.33
Peak faced 48.00
27 outs left 2.33
18 outs left 3.17
9 outs left 6.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Rockies — Batted Balls
28 BIP· 5 1B · 11 XBH · 2 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Ahkhari Goss — itp_out · EV 109 mph · LA +22° · 339 ft Reed Poling — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 165 ft John Diatta — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +36° · 480 ft Marco Ruidíaz — error · EV 84 mph · LA -2° · 80 ft Mario Porteño — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 253 ft Wesly Otamendi — single · EV 118 mph · LA +4° · 112 ft Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 119 mph · LA +11° · 214 ft Garrett Conover — double · EV 104 mph · LA +20° · 280 ft Markeylin Martinho — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +8° · 107 ft Wesly Otamendi — double · EV 110 mph · LA +21° · 330 ft Mario Porteño — double · EV 104 mph · LA +11° · 167 ft Marco Ruidíaz — double · EV 93 mph · LA +31° · 306 ft Ahkhari Goss — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +39° · 473 ft Hunter Grimes — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Garrett Conover — fly_out · EV 113 mph · LA +53° · 480 ft Reed Poling — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Justin Kaiuway — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA -11° · 86 ft Marco Ruidíaz — double · EV 94 mph · LA +19° · 212 ft Markeylin Martinho — single · EV 114 mph · LA +8° · 147 ft John Diatta — double · EV 118 mph · LA +17° · 319 ft Garrett Conover — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Marco Ruidíaz — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Wesly Otamendi — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 292 ft Markeylin Martinho — double · EV 88 mph · LA +41° · 303 ft Mario Porteño — double · EV 102 mph · LA +17° · 235 ft Hunter Grimes — single · EV 112 mph · LA +7° · 107 ft Wesly Otamendi — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Reed Poling — single · EV 118 mph · LA +16° · 286 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Jaime Fuenzalida — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +27° · 457 ft Yadier Guerra — double · EV 94 mph · LA +32° · 322 ft Dawood Aktaş — fly_out · EV 108 mph · LA +28° · 387 ft Donis Zamora — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 330 ft Mekhi Streko — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Édison Henríquez — single · EV 119 mph · LA +6° · 113 ft Aaron Holzworth — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA +8° · 81 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +2° · 69 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — single · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Yadier Guerra — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 273 ft Dawood Aktaş — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 217 ft Mekhi Streko — single · EV 84 mph · LA -13° · 80 ft Édison Henríquez — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -7° · 80 ft Mekhi Streko — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -6° · 77 ft Donis Zamora — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -8° · 81 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
92% deserve-to-win  ·  19.1 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 32.9 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 36.0 (+3.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ahkhari Goss 109 / +22° Pull Itp_Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Mario Porteño 100 / +20° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.58
Markeylin Martinho 88 / +41° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Marco Ruidíaz 93 / +31° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Wesly Otamendi 92 / +30° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Beavers
8% deserve-to-win  ·  5.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 14.8 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dawood Aktaş 108 / +28° Oppo Out 2.2 → 0 -2.25
Donis Zamora 100 / +28° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Jaime Fuenzalida 119 / +27° Center Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Yadier Guerra 94 / +32° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Mekhi Streko 84 / -13° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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