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Nationals 6, Phillies 5                                     2026-08-05 · #1277
at Tannery Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Philadelphia            5      0    5    8    1
Washington              6      -    6    3    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Andrade     c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Awoniyi     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Craft   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Logar       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Santos      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Israilov    3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Martín  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Moor        2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Tabaracci   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Sippel      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
  c-Borges  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Ka'apan pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Vásquez pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cubas       j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  29   5   8   2   0   0   5   4   9   0   1  0.276
  2B: Grizzlies (29), Anthony (8).
  SB: Awoniyi 2 (6).
  CS: Grizzlies (9), Anthony (4).
  E: Borges (2).
  HBP: Awoniyi (8).
  a-Ran for Awoniyi in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Israilov in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Martín in the 5th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 7th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Folds       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Burrows ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Pastore     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Thompki ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Devezin     rf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Cheng       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  c-Alvarad ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Morel       ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Foster      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Baloy       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Fabra   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Bartlet ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Corrale pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Houston pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Jones-W pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  i-Heffner pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Shi     ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Crowdus     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   6   3   1   0   0   3   7   7   0   1  0.125
  2B: Devezin (11).
  SB: Devezin (15), Houston (2).
  GIDP: Devezin (5), Baloy (3).
  a-Walked for Folds in the 5th.
  b-Singled for Miguelito in the 6th.
  c-Walked for Cheng in the 6th.
  d-Ran for Fábrega in the 5th.
  e-Struck out for Jones-Wesley in the 7th.
  f-Ran in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Burrows in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Houston in the 6th.
  i-Ran for Thompkins in the 6th.
  j-Struck out for Fabra in the 7th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sippel ..............    11    8  30%    1    2    1    3    2    0   44    -
Lussi (L, 1-4) ......     9    8  30%    0    2    2    2    2    0   37  2-0
Marte ...............     5    3  11%    2    2    2    1    1    0   14  1-1
Flam ................     6    7  26%    0    0    0    1    2    0   18  1-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Folds (W, 2-1) ......    34   27 100%    8    5    5    4    9    0  115    -

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sippel (Outs 1-8) → Lussi (Outs 9-16) → Marte (Outs 17-19) → Flam (Outs 20-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Moor (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Israilov (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Santos (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tabaracci (Outs 1-26)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Folds (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foster (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Morel (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  Seconds: PHI o26 (5-0), WSN o26 (6-5).
  First pitch 7:15 PM ET. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 418057.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Houston NF (O11)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.80
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Zach Grizzlies Sandy Santos (3B) 1–0 —
T 21 Vitas Anthony Alberto Vásquez (2B) 2–0 —
T 24 Zach Grizzlies Sergio Cubas (2B) 3–0 —
T 24 Zach Grizzlies Bryan Andrade (1B) 4–0 —
T 26 Vitas Anthony Zach Grizzlies (3B) 5–0 —
B 4 Rayce Foster Rill Devezin (3B) 5–1 0.65
B 8 Rayce Foster Yoel Morel (3B) 5–2 0.63
B 12 Devron San Miguelito Oscar Fabra (3B) 5–3 0.60
B 15 Marcos Pastore Sammy Houston (2B) 5–4 0.50
B 16 Rill Devezin Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 5–5 0.27
B 18 Rayce Foster Rill Devezin (3B) 5–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.80
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Zach Grizzlies — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +31° · 279 ft Bryan Andrade — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +4° · 73 ft Sandy Santos — single · EV 79 mph · LA -9° · 75 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — line_out · EV 75 mph · LA +11° · 84 ft Devron Borges — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -12° · 67 ft Emil Sippel — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Vitas Anthony — single · EV 86 mph · LA +20° · 187 ft Alberto Vásquez — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +20° · 242 ft Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 84 mph · LA +0° · 80 ft Marco Logar — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +38° · 321 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 101 ft Emil Sippel — single · EV 75 mph · LA -11° · 71 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 72 mph · LA +8° · 69 ft Vitas Anthony — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 351 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -11° · 77 ft Bryan Andrade — single · EV 108 mph · LA +3° · 102 ft Zach Grizzlies — double · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 340 ft Devron Borges — error · EV 59 mph · LA -4° · 56 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Gerry Folds — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +29° · 238 ft Devron San Miguelito — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 184 ft Kendry Baloy — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +50° · 274 ft Isaac Fábrega — single · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — double_play · EV 91 mph · LA +19° · 205 ft Erwin Crowdus — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +13° · 135 ft Damion Thompkins — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 89 ft Daniel Heffner — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -19° · 59 ft Kendry Baloy — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Rayce Foster — error · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — double · EV 92 mph · LA +33° · 309 ft Yoel Morel — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +47° · 230 ft Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -17° · 72 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA +15° · 66 ft Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA +1° · 64 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
54% deserve-to-win  ·  6.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 10.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-0.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alberto Vásquez 98 / +20° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Marco Logar 91 / +38° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Zach Grizzlies 92 / +42° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Sandy Santos 79 / -9° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Emil Sippel 75 / -11° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Nationals
46% deserve-to-win  ·  5.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rill Devezin 92 / +33° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Rill Devezin 91 / +19° Center Double Play 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Kendry Baloy 92 / +14° Pull Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Isaac Fábrega 76 / -13° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Damion Thompkins 94 / +8° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
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