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Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers 12, Montréal Cannery SARL 11 2046-04-29 · #1284
at Silver Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Aberdeen               12   12    9    0
Montréal               11   11   11    0

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Carusa      c  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Baugh   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Čermák      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Pavlenk pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Karas   2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Edwards ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Telford c  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Ramsey  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Pešek   ss ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Agnew   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Celis   lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  j-Carroll lf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  k-Moravec ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Williams    j  ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Zelem       j  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Kudryavtsev j  ......    1   3   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  15  12   9   5   0   2  12   6   2   0   0  0.600
  2B: Celis (6), Carroll (6), Carusa (8), Williams (11), Zelem (9).
  HR: Edwards (1), off Lennon; Kudryavtseva (2), off Carney.
  SB: Karas (6).
  GIDP: Carroll (3).
  a-Ran for Carusa in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Čermák in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at 2B in the 6th.
  d-Homered for Pešek in the 4th.
  e-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  f-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  g-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  h-Grounded out in the 2nd.
  i-Entered at LF in the 5th.
  j-Entered at LF in the 8th.
  k-Struck out for Ramsey in the 3rd.

MONTRÉAL CANNERY SARL
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Krejčí      cf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
O'Reilly    lf ......    3   1   3   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Flores      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Caldwel pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Koubek      3b ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Green       1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Larkin  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rees        c  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Carney      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-McLaugh ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Rice    ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Blanton ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Escobar pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hranáč      j  ......    3   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Toney       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  34  11  11   4   0   1  11   3  10   0   0  0.324
  2B: Krejčí (6), O'Reilly (9), Koubek (6), Rees (2).
  HR: Escobar (2), off Lewis.
  SB: Koubek (4).
  CS: O'Reilly (4).
  HBP: Flores (2).
  GIDP: Hranáč (6).
  a-Ran for Flores in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Green in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Toney in the 1st.
  d-Batted in the 2nd.
  e-Batted in the 4th.
  f-Ran in the 6th.

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Loftus-Cheek ........     7    3  11%    3    3    3    0    0    0   17    -
Vaněk (W, 1-0) ......    16   15  56%    2    2    2    2    6    0   57  1-0
Lewis ...............     9    5  19%    4    4    4    1    1    1   36  1-1
Payne ...............     6    4  15%    2    2    1    0    4    0   22  1-1

MONTRÉAL CANNERY SARL PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Carney ..............     5    1   4%    3    4    4    1    0    1   15    -
Ku ..................    13    8  30%    4    3    2    4    2    0   49  1-1
Lennon (L, 0-2) .....     3    0   0%    2    5    5    1    0    1   10  3-3

  Batting order: Montréal Cannery SARL (home) batted first; Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers batted second.
  First pitch 1:10 PM. Weather: 78°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 981259.
  Walk-Back runs: off Payne 1, off Ku 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Callum Toney Aleš Hranáč (3B) 0–1
B 3 Aleš Koubek Donal O'Reilly (2B) 0–2
B 3 Aleš Koubek Eoin Caldwell (1B) 0–3
B 8 Aleš Hranáč Dai Rees (2B) 0–4
B 12 Trent Green Aleš Hranáč (2B) 0–5
B 18 Callum Toney Tiernan Larkin (3B) 0–6
B 23 Dai Rees Wesley Blanton (3B) 0–7
B 23 Salomón Escobar Dai Rees (2B) 0–8
B 23 Salomón Escobar Salomón Escobar (HR) 0–9
B 24 Josef Krejčí Salomón Escobar (3B) 0–10
B 24 Donal O'Reilly Josef Krejčí (2B) 0–11
T 1 Ramon Williams Padraig Carusa (2B) 1–11
T 1 Jarrod Zelem Ramon Williams (2B) 2–11
T 1 Igor Kudryavtseva Jarrod Zelem (2B) 3–11
T 1 Igor Kudryavtseva Igor Kudryavtseva (HR) 4–11
T 2 Fabian Telford Igor Kudryavtseva (3B) 5–11
T 4 Papu Celis Bohumil Pešek (3B) 6–11
T 6 Padraig Carusa Radek Karas (2B) 7–11
T 9 Matt Edwards Dalibor Pavlenka (3B) 8–11
T 9 Matt Edwards Ramon Williams (2B) 9–11
T 9 Matt Edwards Igor Kudryavtseva (1B) 10–11
T 9 Matt Edwards Matt Edwards (HR) 11–11
T 9 Oscar Carroll Fabian Telford (1B) 12–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Silver Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 353' · CF 398' · RF 353' · 11' wall). Balanced.
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 5 XBH · 2 HR
353' 398' 353' Patrik Čermák — ground_out · EV 107 mph · LA +8° · 133 ft Ramon Williams — double · EV 88 mph · LA +32° · 277 ft Jarrod Zelem — double · EV 113 mph · LA +18° · 296 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 394 ft Fabian Telford — single · EV 94 mph · LA -5° · 89 ft Oscar Carroll — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA +3° · 59 ft Papu Celis — double · EV 104 mph · LA +22° · 305 ft Radek Karas — single · EV 85 mph · LA +26° · 224 ft Maddux Agnew — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 330 ft Padraig Carusa — double · EV 93 mph · LA +36° · 331 ft Matt Edwards — hr · EV 103 mph · LA +47° · 423 ft Jarrod Zelem — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +34° · 252 ft Oscar Carroll — double · EV 96 mph · LA +11° · 135 ft
Montréal Cannery SARL — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 6 1B · 4 XBH · 1 HR
353' 398' 353' Aleš Hranáč — single · EV 79 mph · LA -8° · 75 ft Callum Toney — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +7° · 94 ft Claude McLaughlin — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +36° · 251 ft Josef Krejčí — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +31° · 208 ft Donal O'Reilly — single · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 121 ft Aleš Koubek — double · EV 96 mph · LA +38° · 353 ft Trent Green — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Dai Rees — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -18° · 82 ft Tiernan Larkin — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 131 ft Salomón Escobar — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +35° · 378 ft Aleš Hranáč — single · EV 90 mph · LA -22° · 86 ft Josef Krejčí — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -1° · 80 ft Aleš Koubek — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 142 ft Trent Green — single · EV 96 mph · LA +13° · 161 ft Donal O'Reilly — single · EV 93 mph · LA +10° · 123 ft Aleš Hranáč — double_play · EV 86 mph · LA -26° · 82 ft Callum Toney — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 73 ft Aleš Koubek — infield_single · EV 63 mph · LA -9° · 60 ft George Rice — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -14° · 89 ft Dai Rees — double · EV 109 mph · LA +16° · 248 ft Donal O'Reilly — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 297 ft Josef Krejčí — double · EV 91 mph · LA +13° · 144 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers
60% deserve-to-win  ·  11.4 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 14.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 20.0 (+5.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Igor Kudryavtseva 100 / +42° Center Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.05
Matt Edwards 103 / +47° Pull Home Run 2.5 → 4 +1.49
Patrik Čermák 107 / +8° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.39
Ramon Williams 88 / +32° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.21
Maddux Agnew 98 / +30° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.17
Montréal Cannery SARL
40% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 16.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (+1.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Salomón Escobar 100 / +35° Center Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Josef Krejčí 91 / +13° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Aleš Koubek 90 / +13° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Aleš Koubek 63 / -9° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Aleš Hranáč 79 / -8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.72
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