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Orcas 5, Brewers 4                                          2026-08-05 · #1287
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               4    4    7    2
Vancouver               5    5    3    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Williams    3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Sanchez     rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Ishida  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Gentry      lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
Edwards     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Irving  ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Yani        c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Kaplan      2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Flores      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Trejo   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Saravia     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Méndez-Vald p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
  d-Mesidor pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Struthe ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nava        j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Ayers       j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  1.000
Totals                  26   4   7   1   0   0   4   4   5   1   2  0.269
  2B: Irving (49).
  SB: Nava (1).
  E: Ayers 2 (2).
  HBP: Sanchez (1), Nava (3).
  a-Ran for Sanchez in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Edwards in the 4th.
  c-Singled for Flores in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Méndez-Valdez in the 4th.
  e-Grounded out for Ishida in the 9th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Edmonson    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mendez      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Badger      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Beigel      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
Godín       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Noonan      c  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Peavy   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Quintero    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Kiesewetter p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Teeguar ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Roker       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   5   3   1   0   0   5   4  11   0   0  0.130
  2B: Noonan (8).
  SB: Alonso-Corcelles (11).
  HBP: Edmonson (1).
  GIDP: Teeguarden (3).
  GITP: Beigel (1).
  a-Ran for Noonan in the 4th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Méndez-Valdez .......    19   14  52%    3    2    2    4    6    0   56    -
Davison (L, 4-1) ....     9    7  26%    0    3    1    0    5    0   38  3-3

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kiesewetter (W, 4-8)     31   26  96%    7    4    4    4    4    0   97    -
Quevedo .............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    4  3-0

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-21)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Méndez-Valdez (Outs 1-14) → Davison (Outs 15-21)
CATCHER (C)       | Yani (Outs 1-21)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-21)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kaplan (Outs 1-21)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Williams (Outs 1-21)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-21)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Gentry (Outs 1-21)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edwards (Outs 1-21)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sanchez (Outs 1-21)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kiesewetter (Outs 1-26) → Quevedo (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Quintero (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Edmonson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Godín (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Beigel (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 56°F · Wind cross · Clear · Dry. seed 876678.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.71
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Maximo Méndez-Valdez Mitch Sanchez (3B) 1–0 —
T 11 Clifford Irving Stan Mesidor (2B) 2–0 —
T 20 Francis Trejo Clifford Irving (3B) 3–0 —
T 24 Donni Eggleston Percy Nava (3B) 4–0 —
B 5 Taylor Kiesewetter Herb Noonan (2B) 4–1 0.55
B 11 Herb Noonan Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles (3B) 4–2 0.56
B 14 Earthna Roker Andrea Peavy (2B) 4–3 0.46
B 21 Amarien Beigel Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles (3B) 4–4 0.50
B 21 Amarien Beigel Yerry Cuéllar (2B) 4–5 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.71
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Brewers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Jesse Williams — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 196 ft Daniel Edwards — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -13° · 72 ft Graydon Yani — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Steven Kaplan — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 149 ft Maximo Méndez-Valdez — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 131 ft Noel Gentry — single · EV 76 mph · LA -26° · 72 ft Mitch Sanchez — line_out · EV 70 mph · LA +24° · 146 ft Francis Trejo — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 179 ft Terry Ayers — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 321 ft Donni Eggleston — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 157 ft Kyron Struthers — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Donni Eggleston — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 207 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Noel Gentry — fly_out · EV 53 mph · LA +31° · 98 ft Clifford Irving — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +50° · 334 ft Jesse Williams — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 216 ft Graydon Yani — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 337 ft Steven Kaplan — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 334 ft Sergio Saravia — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 217 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 150 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Norris Mendez — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -12° · 70 ft Omar Godín — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -4° · 62 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — error · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Herb Noonan — single · EV 77 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Jonás Quintero — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Taylor Kiesewetter — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +11° · 96 ft Ivan Teeguarden — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 74 ft Earthna Roker — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Amarien Beigel — triple_play · EV 81 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Herb Noonan — double · EV 98 mph · LA +29° · 320 ft Amarien Beigel — error · EV 63 mph · LA +14° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
84% deserve-to-win  ·  7.6 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.6 vs expected
contact: 9.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-1.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Clifford Irving 92 / +11° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Graydon Yani 92 / +42° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Steven Kaplan 92 / +40° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Terry Ayers 92 / +35° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Francis Trejo 76 / +25° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Orcas
16% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 4.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Herb Noonan 98 / +29° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Herb Noonan 77 / -2° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Jonás Quintero 76 / +15° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Taylor Kiesewetter 79 / +11° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Amarien Beigel 63 / +14° Center Reached on Error 0.3 → 0 -0.33
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