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Nationals 10, Orcas 9  (1 SI)                               2026-08-07 · #1302
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Washington              8      2   10   12    0
Vancouver               8      1    9    6    1

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Houston pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Heffner pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Devezin     rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.250
Corrales    c  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   4   1   1   0   0  0.500
Cheng       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Foster  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Morel       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Fabra   pr ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Cruz        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Thompki ph ......    3   1   2   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Jones-Wesle ss ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.667
Rico        p  ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.200
Totals                  34  10  12   2   0   1  10   7  15   0   0  0.353
  2B: Miguelito (8), Corrales (3).
  HR: Thompkins (1), off Jenkins.
  SB: Devezin (16), Fabra 2 (8), Houston (3).
  CS: Devezin (11), Corrales (2).
  HBP: Morel (6), Cruz (5), Jones-Wesley (4).
  GIDP: Rico (1).
  a-Ran for Pastore in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Pastore in the 6th.
  c-Struck out for Cheng in the 10th.
  d-Ran for Morel in the 4th.
  e-Batted for Cruz in the 7th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Noonan      c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Irvin       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Peavy   pr ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Valdivia    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Millar  ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Beigel      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Godín       3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Edmonson    cf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Quintero    lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Jenkins     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Badger  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Mendez  pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   2   1   1   1   0  1.000
Roker       j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  33   9   6   0   0   1   8   4  17   1   1  0.182
  HR: Peavy (3), off Rico.
  SB: Godín (9), Edmonson (1).
  E: Valdivia (9).
  HBP: Godín (4), Edmonson 2 (3).
  a-Ran for Irvin in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Valdivia in the 4th.
  c-Singled for Jenkins in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 3rd.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rico (W, 3-13) ......    33   24  89%    6    9    1    3   13    1  121    -
McMurray ............     7    6  22%    0    0    0    1    4    0   23  1-0

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Jenkins (L, 9-4) ....    30   21  78%    5    7    7    6   12    1  114    -
Aupiu ...............    12    9  33%    6    3    3    1    3    0   55  2-1

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Rico (Outs 1-24) → McMurray (Outs 25-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Corrales (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morel (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Jones-Wesley (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cruz (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-30)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Jenkins (Outs 1-21) → Aupiu (Outs 22-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Beigel (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Irvin (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Godín (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Quintero (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edmonson (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Valdivia (Outs 1-30)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Nationals batted first.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 5:45 PM PT. Weather: 79°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Light rain. seed 354706.
  Powerplays: Orcas — Peavy NF (O15)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Renaldo Corrales Devron San Miguelito (2B) 1–0 —
T 11 Rill Devezin Oscar Fabra (2B) 2–0 —
T 16 Renaldo Corrales Daniel Heffner (3B) 3–0 —
T 16 Renaldo Corrales Sammy Houston (2B) 4–0 —
T 18 Damion Thompkins Renaldo Corrales (2B) 5–0 —
T 18 Carl Jones-Wesley Oscar Fabra (3B) 6–0 —
T 21 Devron San Miguelito Sammy Houston (3B) 7–0 —
T 22 Renaldo Corrales Devron San Miguelito (2B) 8–0 —
B 7 Louis Badger Andrea Peavy (2B) 8–1 1.50
B 9 Yerry Cuéllar Alexis Edmonson (3B) 8–2 1.50
B 11 Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles Norris Mendez (3B) 8–3 1.50
B 13 Earthna Roker Alexis Edmonson (3B) 8–4 1.50
B 19 Yerry Cuéllar Omar Godín (3B) 8–5 2.25
B 19 John Millar Norris Mendez (3B) 8–6 1.88
B 20 Omar Godín Yerry Cuéllar (3B) 8–7 1.71
B 20 Omar Godín John Millar (2B) 8–8 1.29
ST 27 Damion Thompkins Carl Jones-Wesley (1B) 9–8 —
ST 27 Damion Thompkins Damion Thompkins (HR) 10–8 —
SB 28 Andrea Peavy Andrea Peavy (HR) 10–9 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Nationals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
282' 485' 283' Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 102 mph · LA -6° · 97 ft Renaldo Corrales — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +7° · 86 ft Rill Devezin — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -6° · 82 ft Oscar Fabra — single · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Damion Thompkins — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 207 ft Sammy Houston — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Daniel Heffner — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +38° · 339 ft Marcos Pastore — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA +1° · 66 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — single · EV 90 mph · LA +6° · 86 ft Damion Thompkins — error · EV 58 mph · LA +17° · 75 ft Renaldo Corrales — single · EV 84 mph · LA +18° · 165 ft Aleem Rico — double_play · EV 69 mph · LA -4° · 66 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — single · EV 73 mph · LA -5° · 70 ft Damion Thompkins — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +28° · 414 ft Devron San Miguelito — double · EV 116 mph · LA +15° · 277 ft Renaldo Corrales — double · EV 98 mph · LA +15° · 194 ft Aleem Rico — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 170 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
282' 485' 283' Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Stuart Irvin — error · EV 88 mph · LA -18° · 84 ft Louis Badger — single · EV 83 mph · LA +22° · 186 ft Coen Turrentine — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 222 ft Yerry Cuéllar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 120 ft Yerry Cuéllar — single · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 105 ft John Millar — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 233 ft Omar Godín — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +23° · 181 ft Coen Turrentine — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 202 ft Jonás Quintero — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +32° · 215 ft Herb Noonan — single · EV 80 mph · LA +23° · 186 ft Earthna Roker — error · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 150 ft Andrea Peavy — hr · EV 93 mph · LA +45° · 343 ft John Millar — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 191 ft Herb Noonan — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 183 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
63% deserve-to-win  ·  8.1 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 11.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+4.8 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 2 CS (-0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Damion Thompkins 112 / +28° Pull Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Daniel Heffner 93 / +38° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Renaldo Corrales 98 / +15° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Carl Jones-Wesley 73 / -5° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Oscar Fabra 81 / +8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Orcas
37% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 8.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+0.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andrea Peavy 93 / +45° Pull Home Run 1.2 → 4 +2.82
John Millar 92 / +17° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Herb Noonan 92 / +16° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Earthna Roker 84 / +16° Center Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Omar Godín 80 / +23° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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