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Royals 2, Marlins 1                                         2026-08-09 · #1321
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Kansas City             2    2    0    0
Miami                   1    1    5    0

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sabella     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ekic        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Fuenzal ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Rosales     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tanguilig   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Talavera    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hsia        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Farley  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gregory     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Altamir pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Bortolotti  c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  d-Vera    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kortovich   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Devens  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Inglis  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Press       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  11   2   0   0   0   0   2   4   8   0   2  0.000

  a-Walked for Ekic in the 4th.
  b-Struck out for Hsia in the 8th.
  c-Ran for Gregory in the 3rd.
  d-Grounded out for Bortolotti in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Kortovich in the 6th.
  f-Walked in the 5th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Blackman    c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Enterline   rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Dibert      1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Salcido     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Todd-Willia ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Corzo       3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Mangin      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fitzgerald  p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Chieh-yu    lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   1   5   0   0   0   1   3   8   0   0  0.185
  CS: Blackman (7), Dibert (3).


ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kortovich (W, 12-5) .    27   25  93%    5    1    1    3    6    0   92    -
Branstine ...........     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    2    0    7  2-0

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fitzgerald (L, 7-10)     15   12  44%    0    2    2    4    8    0   54    -

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kortovich (Outs 1-25) → Branstine (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Bortolotti (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Tanguilig (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gregory (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sabella (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Hsia (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Talavera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ekic (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgerald (Outs 1-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dibert (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Salcido (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Todd-Williams (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Mangin (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-12)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted first; Royals batted second.
  First pitch 2:00 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 865612.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.29
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 25 Montavious Chieh-yu Wilmer Corzo (2B) 0–1 —
T 11 Reinaldo Talavera Ramon Altamirano (3B) 1–1 0.19
T 12 Connor Inglis Beau Devens (3B) 2–1 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.29
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Royals — Batted Balls
2 BIP· 0 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Tripp Ekic — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -6° · 64 ft Thomas Gregory — fielders_choice · EV 62 mph · LA -2° · 59 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Ramon Blackman — single · EV 108 mph · LA +3° · 102 ft Alex Dibert — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +13° · 115 ft Anderson Salcido — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 287 ft Devon Mangin — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -10° · 88 ft Randall Fitzgerald — single · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Wilmer Corzo — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +18° · 174 ft Don Burns — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 144 ft Devon Mangin — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +9° · 111 ft Bob Todd-Williams — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 118 ft Anderson Salcido — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -17° · 62 ft Alex Dibert — single · EV 93 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Wallace Enterline — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 258 ft Wilmer Corzo — single · EV 71 mph · LA +17° · 110 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -2° · 74 ft Anderson Salcido — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +31° · 166 ft Bob Todd-Williams — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +9° · 127 ft Devon Mangin — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +26° · 196 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 79 mph · LA -2° · 75 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Royals
2% deserve-to-win  ·  0.6 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 0.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 0.0 (-0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tripp Ekic 68 / -6° Center Out 0.1 → 0 -0.11
Thomas Gregory 62 / -2° Pull Out 0.1 → 0 -0.11
Marlins
98% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -4.2 vs expected
contact: 10.8 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-5.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wallace Enterline 100 / +20° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Devon Mangin 96 / +9° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Bob Todd-Williams 99 / +9° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Bob Todd-Williams 92 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Montavious Chieh-yu 79 / -2° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
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