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Guardians 4, Beavers 4  (4 SI)                              2026-08-09 · #1323
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Portland                3      1    4    6    0
Cleveland               3      1    4    8    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.333
Fuenzalida  lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.200
Guerra      1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Aktaş       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Briaud      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Harper  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Smith       rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Moulton     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1  0.000
  b-Okey    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  c-Zamora  pr ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Holzwor ph ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Velazquez   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  38   4   6   0   0   0   4  10  13   0   1  0.158
  GIDP: Tessema (9), Harper (6), Briaud (1).
  Squeeze: Zamora (1 RBI).
  a-Batted for Briaud in the 5th.
  b-Ran in the 5th.
  c-Ran in the 5th.
  d-Batted in the 6th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Granberry   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Villarr pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Céspedes    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Anwunah ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Carmona     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Bronaug pr ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Cosper      3b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rollins     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Gonzále ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Enquist     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Bannaty ph ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Velez       c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Mayotte pr ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Brymer      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Siereve pr ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Haliburton  p  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
  h-Zhu     ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  i-Ardón   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  j-Tanner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  40   4   8   1   0   1   3   3  15   0   0  0.200
  2B: González (18).
  HR: Bannatyne (1), off Moulton.
  SB: Haliburton (1), Mayotte (5).
  CS: Ardón (11).
  HBP: Haliburton (2).
  a-Ran for Granberry in the 5th.
  b-Struck out for Céspedes in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Carmona in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Rollins in the 10th.
  e-Batted for Enquist in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Velez in the 4th.
  g-Ran for Brymer in the 3rd.
  h-Batted for Villarreal in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Anwunah in the 11th.
  j-Struck out in the 13th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moulton .............    45   39 144%    8    4    4    3   16    1  168    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Haliburton ..........    48   39 144%    5    4    4   10   14    0  177    -

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Moulton (Outs 1-39)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Guerra (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Briaud (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Smith (Outs 1-39)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Haliburton (Outs 1-39)
CATCHER (C)       | Velez (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Enquist (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cosper (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Brymer (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rollins (Outs 1-39)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted first; Beavers batted second.
  Super-innings: 4.
  First pitch 2:00 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 972652.
  Powerplays: Guardians — Ardón NF (O1), Tanner NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Marcos Siereveld Keshav Haliburton (2B) 0–1 —
B 9 Doug Bannatyne Marcos Siereveld (3B) 0–2 —
B 15 Clint Bronaugh Benoit Mayotte (3B) 0–3 —
T 20 Bonsa Tessema Rhyne Okey (3B) 1–3 1.71
T 22 Donis Zamora Sydney Redmayne (3B) 2–3 1.80
T 25 Aaron Holzworth Donis Zamora (3B) 3–3 3.00
ST 28 Donis Zamora Bonsa Tessema (2B) 4–3 —
SB 27 Doug Bannatyne Doug Bannatyne (HR) 4–4 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Beavers — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -10° · 63 ft Travis Briaud — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +4° · 65 ft Ricki Smith — single · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 49 ft Sydney Redmayne — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Bonsa Tessema — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA -5° · 52 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 149 ft Dawood Aktaş — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -11° · 49 ft Gabriel Harper — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 107 ft Aaron Holzworth — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 241 ft Derek Moulton — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +44° · 231 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -0° · 49 ft Donis Zamora — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -7° · 90 ft Bonsa Tessema — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Francisco Vahaly — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +13° · 112 ft Donis Zamora — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 152 ft Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Aaron Holzworth — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 221 ft Holcombe Hydrick — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA -8° · 73 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
315' 410' 349' Boris Carmona — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Hal Rollins — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -14° · 78 ft Keshav Haliburton — single · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 120 ft Marcos Siereveld — single · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 92 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -7° · 50 ft Clint Bronaugh — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +9° · 90 ft Benoit Mayotte — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +38° · 258 ft José González — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +15° · 144 ft Eddie Velez — single · EV 100 mph · LA -16° · 95 ft Hal Rollins — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +4° · 85 ft Marcos Siereveld — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +25° · 129 ft Benoit Mayotte — single · EV 72 mph · LA +25° · 157 ft Clint Bronaugh — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +16° · 142 ft José González — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 316 ft Aleksandar Cosper — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -1° · 76 ft Hal Rollins — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -6° · 61 ft Keshav Haliburton — single · EV 91 mph · LA +13° · 142 ft Doug Bannatyne — hr · EV 96 mph · LA +45° · 368 ft Clint Bronaugh — single · EV 93 mph · LA +5° · 88 ft Aleksandar Cosper — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +42° · 179 ft Marcos Siereveld — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft Doug Bannatyne — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -3° · 61 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
32% deserve-to-win  ·  5.3 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 7.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-2.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sydney Redmayne 92 / +40° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Ricki Smith 52 / +8° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Gabriel Harper 92 / +9° Center Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Donis Zamora 76 / +20° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Holcombe Hydrick 100 / +4° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Guardians
68% deserve-to-win  ·  7.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.8 vs expected
contact: 10.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Doug Bannatyne 96 / +45° Oppo Home Run 2.0 → 4 +1.99
José González 92 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Benoit Mayotte 72 / +25° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Clint Bronaugh 81 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Clint Bronaugh 93 / +5° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
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