==============================================================================
Astros 8, Brewers 3                                         2026-08-10 · #1329
at Bussaglia Grounds
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 8    8   11    0
Milwaukee               3    3    6    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
O'Connor    2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Moros       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  a-Herrera ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Thom        c  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.667
Gómez       1b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Humphreys   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Tassew      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Braun   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Abrams      p  ......    3   1   3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  1.000
  c-Konig   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Rivas   ph ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
  e-Morales ph ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
  f-Arboled ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Trejo       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  33   8  11   2   0   0   8   5  15   0   1  0.333
  2B: Rivas (23), Morales (14).
  SB: Gómez (6).
  CS: Thom (3).
  a-Walked for Moros in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Tassew in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Abrams in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Valencia in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Trejo in the 4th.
  f-Grounded out for Braun in the 7th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Trejo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Irving  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Penickova   3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Mesidor     c  ......    4   1   3   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
Williams    rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Edwards     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Yani        cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Gentry  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Flores      1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Ebun        p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  c-Ishida  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Eggleston   j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   3   6   2   0   0   3   3  14   0   1  0.222
  2B: Mesidor (31), Williams (30).
  a-Batted for Trejo in the 6th.
  b-Struck out for Yani in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Ebun in the 6th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abrams ..............     9    7  26%    4    1    1    0    3    0   32    -
Faber (W, 3-7) ......    15   15  56%    0    1    1    3    7    0   56  2-1
Pratt (F, 8) ........     6    5  19%    2    1    1    0    4    0   20  1-0

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun (L, 18-5) ......    16    9  33%    6    7    7    2    7    0   57    -
Kossmann ............    14   13  48%    4    1    1    1    5    0   43  1-0
Freeman .............     7    5  19%    0    0    0    2    3    0   33  1-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Abrams (Outs 1-7) → Faber (Outs 8-22) → Pratt (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | O'Connor (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-9) → Kossmann (Outs 10-22) → Freeman (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Penickova (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Yani (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Williams (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM CT. Weather: 57°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 406870.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 18.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 2.33
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Shimeket Tassew Mayer Gómez (2B) 1–0 —
T 7 Maxi Valencia Brayan Braun (2B) 2–0 —
T 7 Scoville Rivas Dante O'Connor (2B) 3–0 —
T 7 Scoville Rivas Maxi Valencia (1B) 4–0 —
T 9 Benicio Trejo Scoville Rivas (2B) 5–0 —
T 9 Jeyland Morales Iapani Thom (3B) 6–0 —
T 9 Jeyland Morales Benicio Trejo (1B) 7–0 —
T 20 Yasniel Arboleda Khalil Abrams (2B) 8–0 —
B 1 Graydon Yani Stan Mesidor (3B) 8–1 0.92
B 12 Sergio Saravia Rodolfo Flores (3B) 8–2 1.40
B 26 Stan Mesidor Sergio Saravia (2B) 8–3 18.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 18.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Astros — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 8 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Iapani Thom — single · EV 103 mph · LA +3° · 97 ft Mayer Gómez — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA +8° · 83 ft Shimeket Tassew — single · EV 78 mph · LA +13° · 108 ft Maxi Valencia — single · EV 83 mph · LA -1° · 79 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 200 ft Benicio Trejo — single · EV 82 mph · LA -8° · 78 ft Jeyland Morales — double · EV 96 mph · LA +16° · 194 ft Brayan Braun — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -8° · 89 ft Khalil Abrams — single · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 177 ft Yasniel Arboleda — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -20° · 82 ft Scoville Rivas — infield_single · EV 82 mph · LA +10° · 92 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 224 ft Korey Humphreys — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +14° · 78 ft Brayan Braun — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -16° · 78 ft Khalil Abrams — single · EV 110 mph · LA +0° · 104 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -15° · 70 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Stan Mesidor — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 160 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 83 ft Rodolfo Flores — single · EV 80 mph · LA -8° · 76 ft Stan Mesidor — single · EV 86 mph · LA +8° · 86 ft Jesse Williams — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 74 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 74 ft Stan Mesidor — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +9° · 93 ft Raymond Penickova — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA +8° · 130 ft Sergio Saravia — single · EV 92 mph · LA -24° · 87 ft Stan Mesidor — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 240 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
70% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+2.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jeyland Morales 96 / +16° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Scoville Rivas 100 / +15° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Maxi Valencia 83 / -1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Benicio Trejo 82 / -8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Shimeket Tassew 78 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Brewers
30% deserve-to-win  ·  3.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Raymond Penickova 105 / +8° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.39
Jesse Williams 100 / +12° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Stan Mesidor 88 / +9° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Rodolfo Flores 80 / -8° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Sergio Saravia 92 / -24° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →