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Canaries 4, Orioles 2                                       2026-08-10 · #1334
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore               2    2    1    0
New Jersey              4    4    3    1

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Roy         p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Barba   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Schloss     cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Mills       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Heath   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Flowers     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-López   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Maloney     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Purchase    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Stokke  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Thompson    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   2   1   0   0   0   1   6  12   0   0  0.042
  SB: Barba (3), Stokke (6), López (7).
  GIDP: Flowers (8), Barba (2), Rubin (2).
  a-Ran for Ison in the 3rd.
  b-Grounded out for Mills in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Flowers in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Purchase in the 4th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rushing     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kramer      2b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Pastore     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Brickhandle 1b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Campos      lf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Waidner     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Morriso pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nachand     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                   8   4   3   2   0   0   4   3   2   0   0  0.375
  2B: Kramer (42), Brickhandler (29).
  E: Kramer (10).
  a-Ran for Waidner in the 2nd.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Roy (L, 11-6) .......    11    5  19%    3    4    4    3    2    0   39    -

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Waidner (W, 7-3) ....    30   27 100%    1    2    2    6   12    0  109    -

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-5)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Roy (Outs 1-5)
CATCHER (C)       | Maloney (Outs 1-5)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ison (Outs 1-5)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-5)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mills (Outs 1-5)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-5)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-5)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-5)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Flowers (Outs 1-5)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Waidner (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Campos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Orioles batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM ET. Weather: 78°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 329031.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.35
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 10 Korey Flowers Ulises Barba (3B) 1–0 —
T 12 Ulises Barba Maciek Stokke (3B) 2–0 —
B 1 Jam Brickhandler Andrea Kramer (3B) 2–1 0.23
B 1 Roberto Lacava Jam Brickhandler (3B) 2–2 0.12
B 5 Jesse Woodall Hugo Campos (3B) 2–3 0.00
B 5 Jesse Woodall Ulises Morrison (2B) 2–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.35
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Orioles — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Alastair Roy — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +34° · 235 ft Sidney Foust — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Zaimir Schloss — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 98 ft Korey Flowers — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA +17° · 68 ft Ulises Barba — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 50 ft Arkie Rubin — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Jason Adams — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Korey Flowers — error · EV 52 mph · LA -3° · 49 ft Alan Maloney — fly_out · EV 63 mph · LA +29° · 138 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
5 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 293 ft Renaldo Pastore — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +1° · 64 ft Jam Brickhandler — double · EV 92 mph · LA +46° · 335 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +1° · 85 ft Jesse Woodall — single · EV 86 mph · LA +18° · 174 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
46% deserve-to-win  ·  3.2 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 2.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-1.2 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zaimir Schloss 76 / +12° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Korey Flowers 55 / +17° Oppo Double Play 0.4 → 0 -0.42
Sidney Foust 76 / +5° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Arkie Rubin 76 / -1° Center Double Play 0.2 → 0 -0.23
Maciek Stokke 76 / -8° Pull Out 0.2 → 0 -0.23
Canaries
54% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 3.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+1.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jam Brickhandler 92 / +46° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Andrea Kramer 100 / +24° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Roberto Lacava 90 / +1° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Jesse Woodall 86 / +18° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.39
Renaldo Pastore 68 / +1° Oppo Out 0.1 → 0 -0.10
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