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Braves 7, Red Sox 2                                         2026-08-13 · #1366
at The Citadel
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  2    2    5    0
Atlanta                 7    7    9    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wolfe       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suazo       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Venegas     1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Pfister     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Harrell     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nytes       ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hampton     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Falby   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Rowley  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Hodges  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Echever pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Pope    pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Pezzell ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Malard      j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   5   2   0   0   1   3   9   0   0  0.185
  2B: Nytes (12), Hampton (1).
  SB: Nytes (5).
  CS: Rowley (3).
  GIDP: Echeverría (3), Malard (7).
  a-Singled for Hampton in the 6th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Pezzella in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Falby in the 8th.
  f-Walked in the 4th.

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chu         ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Morrow      p  ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Ramon-E pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kalogeropou lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Martín  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Spencer     c  ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bray        rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Alvelo  pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Powlus      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Togashi ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nightingale 2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Almeida ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  f-Molin   ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Lamar   ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  h-Siska   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Weah        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Ortiz       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
María       j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   7   9   4   0   0   7   5   5   0   0  0.290
  2B: Morrow (6), Saprissa (5), Alvelo (22), Lamar (27).
  SB: Sauerbrunn (19), Martín (8).
  CS: Ramon-Edwards (6).
  GIDP: Bray (4), Saprissa (4).
  a-Ran for Morrow in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Kalogeropoulos in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Bray in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out for Powlus in the 8th.
  e-Batted for Nightingale in the 6th.
  f-Batted for Ramon-Edwards in the 6th.
  g-Batted for Martín in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Almeida in the 9th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hampton .............    24   22  81%    4    0    0    1    3    0   79    -
Schellenger .........     4    2   7%    3    3    3    0    0    0   20  2-2
Gullikson (L, 0-3) ..     6    1   4%    2    4    4    3    1    0   23  1-1
Root ................     2    2   7%    0    0    0    1    1    0    9  2-0

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Morrow (W, 18-3) ....    30   27 100%    5    2    2    3    9    0  109    -

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hampton (Outs 1-22) → Schellenger (Outs 23-24) → Gullikson (Outs 25-25) → Root (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Morrow (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spencer (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Powlus (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Chu (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bray (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Braves (home) batted first; Red Sox batted second.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 91°F · Wind out · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 458544.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 18.00
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 22 Zack Spencer Lyrik Molin (2B) 0–1 —
B 22 Mirko Alvelo Jefferson Di María (3B) 0–2 —
B 22 Mirko Alvelo Zack Spencer (1B) 0–3 —
B 24 Haxzel Saprissa Mirko Alvelo (3B) 0–4 —
B 25 Cormani Weah Malcolm Siska (3B) 0–5 —
B 25 Dennis Lamar Haxzel Saprissa (3B) 0–6 —
B 25 Dennis Lamar Todd Chu (2B) 0–7 —
T 9 Ivo Malard Ferdi Pope (3B) 1–7 1.17
T 13 Kervin Venegas Ferdi Pope (3B) 2–7 1.29
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 18.00
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Citadel's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 355' · RF 345' · 10' wall). The Crescent — Inverted.
Crescent Grandstand
Red Sox — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -16° · 67 ft Kervin Venegas — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +9° · 90 ft Mark Harrell — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +34° · 281 ft Inman Nytes — double · EV 88 mph · LA +33° · 280 ft Xzavier Wolfe — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -16° · 54 ft Junie Hampton — double · EV 88 mph · LA +34° · 288 ft Jide Falby — single · EV 86 mph · LA +14° · 137 ft Raymond Rowley — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 158 ft Ivo Malard — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Bernard Strachan — line_out · EV 61 mph · LA +23° · 106 ft Denis Echeverría — double_play · EV 82 mph · LA -1° · 78 ft Henri Merrill — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 206 ft Ivo Malard — single · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Mark Harrell — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -13° · 79 ft Kervin Venegas — single · EV 78 mph · LA +23° · 173 ft Henri Merrill — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +30° · 323 ft Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -19° · 76 ft
Braves — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
368' 355' 345' Todd Chu — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +22° · 182 ft Jonathan Morrow — double · EV 96 mph · LA +32° · 328 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +3° · 67 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 81 mph · LA +18° · 154 ft Hugo Bray — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -10° · 61 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA -8° · 55 ft Haxzel Saprissa — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +8° · 65 ft Wilson Almeida — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +6° · 78 ft Lyrik Molin — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA +7° · 55 ft Dennis Lamar — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 192 ft Cormani Weah — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Edgar Ortiz — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +22° · 175 ft Jefferson Di María — fielders_choice · EV 64 mph · LA +6° · 61 ft Mirko Alvelo — double · EV 101 mph · LA +23° · 297 ft Jonathan Morrow — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Zack Spencer — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +60° · 233 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 66 mph · LA -1° · 63 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -5° · 64 ft Haxzel Saprissa — error · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Dennis Lamar — double · EV 81 mph · LA +31° · 230 ft Todd Chu — fielders_choice · EV 69 mph · LA -13° · 66 ft Zack Spencer — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 164 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 118 ft Haxzel Saprissa — double · EV 110 mph · LA +29° · 404 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
27% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 7.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Inman Nytes 88 / +33° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Henri Merrill 97 / +30° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Junie Hampton 88 / +34° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Ivo Malard 76 / -5° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Henri Merrill 87 / +21° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Braves
73% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 10.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+2.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dennis Lamar 81 / +31° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.62
Jonathan Morrow 96 / +32° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Hugo Bray 66 / -1° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Todd Chu 81 / +22° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Mirko Alvelo 101 / +23° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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