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Matanzas Tornados 11, Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths 9      2046-05-01 · #1387
at Copper Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Cienfuegos              9    9    7    0
Matanzas               11   11    8    0

CIENFUEGOS NORTHERN GOLDSMITHS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Eledge      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Pashkova    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Freitas     ss ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Severin pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Liriano     lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Difo        c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Arce    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tatís       p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.500
  c-Rosas   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Coronad ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  e-Akiyama ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  f-Soto    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Fazio   cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Firmino pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Ramos   cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Anderson    j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Rodríguez   j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Valencia    j  ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   9   7   3   0   0   6   6  14   0   1  0.233
  2B: Rodríguez (13), Freitas (5), Difo (5).
  SB: Pashkova (1), Rodríguez (4).
  CS: Eledge (2).
  a-Ran for Freitas in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Difo in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 2nd.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.
  e-Batted in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 3rd.
  g-Replaced Rodríguez at CF in the 4th.
  h-Ran for Rosas in the 4th.
  i-Replaced Soto at CF in the 5th.

MATANZAS TORNADOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Castillo    lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Liriano     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Bareiro     rf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Peña        p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Renner      cf ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Werner      3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Huertas     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Suero   ph ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Liriano     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Coelho  c  ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  18  11   8   4   0   2  11   1   5   0   0  0.444
  2B: Coelho (1), Bareiro (6), Peña (6), Renner (6).
  HR: Castillo (5), off Suero; Suero (7), off Rojas.
  SB: Coelho (5).
  HBP: Castillo (6), Renner (1).
  a-Homered for Huertas in the 4th.
  b-Entered at C in the 7th.

CIENFUEGOS NORTHERN GOLDSMITHS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tatís (L, 1-1) ......    14    9  33%    4    4    4    1    5    0   43    -
Rojas ...............     4    1   4%    2    4    4    0    0    1    7  1-1
Suero ...............     3    1   4%    2    3    2    0    0    1    9  1-1

MATANZAS TORNADOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Peña ................     8    6  22%    3    0    0    1    2    0   24    -
Yotún ...............    12    8  30%    1    5    5    3    4    0   40  2-0
Huertas (W, 2-0) ....    16   12  44%    3    4    4    2    8    0   60  1-1
Delgado .............     0    1   4%    0    0    0    0    0    0    1  2-0

  Batting order: Matanzas Tornados (home) batted second; Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM. Weather: 81°F · Wind out · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 139638.
  Walk-Back runs: off Suero 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 8 Jhoan Tatís Carlos Arce (2B) 1–0
T 9 Rory Anderson Wandy Soto (3B) 2–0
T 9 Juan Rodríguez Moisés Valencia (3B) 3–0
T 11 Moisés Valencia Rory Anderson (3B) 4–0
T 13 Juan Ramos Juan Rodríguez (3B) 5–0
T 16 Jhoan Tatís Otávio Firmino (3B) 6–0
T 19 Alan Pashkova James Coronado (3B) 7–0
T 19 Alan Pashkova Moisés Valencia (2B) 8–0
T 20 Fernando Severino Marco Fazio (3B) 9–0
B 8 Rodrigo Coelho Chris Renner (2B) 9–1
B 9 Cesar Bareiro Rodrigo Coelho (2B) 9–2
B 9 Ángel Peña Tony Castillo (3B) 9–3
B 9 Ángel Peña Cesar Bareiro (2B) 9–4
B 9 Vladimir Suero Ángel Peña (3B) 9–5
B 9 Vladimir Suero Chris Renner (2B) 9–6
B 9 Vladimir Suero Lisandro Werner (1B) 9–7
B 9 Vladimir Suero Vladimir Suero (HR) 9–8
B 10 James Liriano Vladimir Suero (3B) 9–9
B 11 Tony Castillo Rodrigo Coelho (2B) 9–10
B 11 Tony Castillo Tony Castillo (HR) 9–11
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Copper Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 347' · CF 416' · RF 336' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
347' 416' 336' Rory Anderson — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 126 ft Steve Eledge — single · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 102 ft Juan Rodríguez — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -12° · 71 ft Caio Freitas — double · EV 93 mph · LA +13° · 150 ft Edwin Difo — double · EV 101 mph · LA +25° · 312 ft Jhoan Tatís — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Moisés Valencia — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +40° · 305 ft Juan Rodríguez — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 129 ft James Coronado — single · EV 70 mph · LA +17° · 111 ft Rory Anderson — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 226 ft Jhoan Tatís — single · EV 78 mph · LA +15° · 120 ft Alan Pashkova — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 116 ft Rory Anderson — error · EV 95 mph · LA +1° · 90 ft
Matanzas Tornados — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 4 XBH · 2 HR
347' 416' 336' Cesar Bareiro — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +34° · 277 ft Chris Renner — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 160 ft Lisandro Werner — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +48° · 263 ft Orlando Liriano — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +28° · 253 ft Vladimir Suero — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +40° · 413 ft Rodrigo Coelho — single · EV 82 mph · LA -5° · 77 ft Cesar Bareiro — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 261 ft Ángel Peña — double · EV 107 mph · LA +10° · 156 ft Lisandro Werner — single · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 162 ft Orlando Liriano — fly_out · EV 106 mph · LA +20° · 286 ft James Liriano — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 115 ft Tony Castillo — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +27° · 393 ft Rodrigo Coelho — double · EV 112 mph · LA +25° · 383 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cienfuegos Northern Goldsmiths
22% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +4.1 vs expected
contact: 8.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Caio Freitas 93 / +13° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Juan Rodríguez 92 / +11° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Rory Anderson 94 / +10° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Moisés Valencia 88 / +40° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.66
Edwin Difo 101 / +25° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.56
Matanzas Tornados
78% deserve-to-win  ·  9.2 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 16.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 18.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Vladimir Suero 102 / +40° Center Home Run 2.1 → 4 +1.91
Tony Castillo 110 / +27° Center Home Run 2.4 → 4 +1.65
Orlando Liriano 106 / +20° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.57
James Liriano 100 / +8° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Rodrigo Coelho 112 / +25° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.04
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