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Orcas 16, Giants 8                                          2026-08-17 · #1405
at Kolenda Field
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                        1    R    H    E
Vancouver              16   16   11    0
San Francisco           8    8    6    1

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Badger      3b ......    5   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.200
Delía       c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   .000
  a-Edmonso pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mendez      lf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    4   1   3   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.750
Beigel      rf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Godín       2b ......    4   2   2   2   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Krickstein  ss ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Noonan      1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Whitley pr ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.250
Pruitt      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Vallado pr ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.250
  d-Quinter ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  34  16  11   4   0   0  13  11   9   0   0  0.324
  2B: Beigel (11), Godín 2 (14), Whitley (6).
  HBP: Beigel (8), Edmonson (4).
  GIDP: Beigel (5), Krickstein (2).
  a-Ran for Delía in the 2nd.
  b-Ran for Noonan in the 1st.
  c-Ran for Pruitt in the 2nd.
  d-Batted in the 3rd.

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cardozo     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Figuero pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
McNeal      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kelley      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Hoffken     3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Matos       rf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Leininger   lf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Marte       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Connelly    2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.000
Guerrant    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Gallowa ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  33   8   6   2   0   0   6   2  11   0   0  0.182
  2B: Matos (28), Leininger (14).
  E: Cardozo (11).
  HBP: Marte (2).
  GIDP: Galloway (5).
  a-Ran for Cardozo in the 8th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Pruitt (W, 3-3) .....    15   12  44%    2    1    1    0    5    0   53    -
Fearbry .............    14   11  41%    3    2    2    1    5    0   52  2-1
Estrada (F, 24) .....     7    4  15%    1    5    5    1    1    0   22  3-3

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Guerrant ............     6    1   4%    2    3    3    3    1    0   27    -
Yamauchi ............     7    2   7%    2    4    2    2    2    0   32  2-2
Kavan (L, 0-2) ......    14    8  30%    3    7    7    3    4    0   51  3-2
Clements ............    13   12  44%    2    2    2    2    2    0   48  2-2
McKay ...............     6    4  15%    2    0    0    1    0    0   26  1-0

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Pruitt (Outs 1-12) → Fearbry (Outs 13-23) → Estrada (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Delía (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Godín (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Krickstein (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Beigel (Outs 1-27)

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Guerrant (Outs 1-1) → Yamauchi (Outs 2-3) → Kavan (Outs 4-11) → Clements (Outs 12-23) → McKay (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | McNeal (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Connelly (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hoffken (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Leininger (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marte (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Giants (home) batted second; Orcas batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM PT. Weather: 85°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 646077.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.89    Peak faced 27.00
    27 outs left: 1.89
    18 outs left: 2.83
     9 outs left: 5.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 Andrea Peavy Louis Badger (3B) 1–0 —
T 1 Omar Godín Mateus Delía (3B) 2–0 —
T 1 Omar Godín Norris Mendez (3B) 3–0 —
T 2 Tristan Pruitt Amarien Beigel (3B) 4–0 —
T 3 Mateus Delía Omar Godín (3B) 5–0 —
T 3 Norris Mendez Nahitan Valladolid (2B) 6–0 —
T 3 Andrea Peavy Berkeley Whitley (3B) 7–0 —
T 3 Amarien Beigel Alexis Edmonson (3B) 8–0 —
T 7 Nahitan Valladolid Norris Mendez (3B) 9–0 —
T 8 Alexis Edmonson Amarien Beigel (3B) 10–0 —
T 11 Omar Godín William Krickstein (3B) 11–0 —
T 11 Omar Godín Nahitan Valladolid (2B) 12–0 —
T 11 Berkeley Whitley Andrea Peavy (3B) 13–0 —
T 11 Berkeley Whitley Omar Godín (2B) 14–0 —
T 13 Jonás Quintero William Krickstein (3B) 15–0 —
T 14 Andrea Peavy Berkeley Whitley (3B) 16–0 —
B 10 Orien Hoffken Orien Hoffken (3B) 16–1 2.82
B 18 Alexander Connelly Antolín Matos (3B) 16–2 5.00
B 23 Alafia Kelley Reuben Leininger (3B) 16–3 10.50
B 23 Manolo Figueroa Manolo Figueroa (3B) 16–4 9.75
B 23 Manolo Figueroa Antolín Matos (3B) 16–5 9.00
B 24 José Marte Alafia Kelley (3B) 16–6 11.00
B 24 Alexander Connelly Manolo Figueroa (3B) 16–7 10.00
B 24 Alexander Connelly Reuben Leininger (2B) 16–8 9.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.89
Peak faced 27.00
27 outs left 1.89
18 outs left 2.83
9 outs left 5.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Kolenda Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 322' · CF 445' · RF 350' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Wire Basket
Orcas — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 7 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Louis Badger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 179 ft Omar Godín — double · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Tristan Pruitt — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 157 ft Norris Mendez — error · EV 82 mph · LA +24° · 200 ft Berkeley Whitley — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 199 ft Jonás Quintero — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA +2° · 73 ft Nahitan Valladolid — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -3° · 80 ft Alexis Edmonson — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +16° · 88 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 142 ft William Krickstein — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 146 ft Berkeley Whitley — double · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 190 ft Amarien Beigel — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Nahitan Valladolid — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 188 ft Omar Godín — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 322 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 163 ft William Krickstein — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Nahitan Valladolid — infield_single · EV 71 mph · LA -9° · 67 ft Amarien Beigel — double · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 241 ft Louis Badger — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +46° · 242 ft Omar Godín — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -10° · 54 ft William Krickstein — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 84 ft
Giants — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
322' 445' 350' Antolín Matos — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +2° · 93 ft Maximo Cardozo — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +39° · 312 ft Orien Hoffken — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft José Marte — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +40° · 333 ft Alexander Connelly — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Brad Galloway — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 73 ft Manolo Figueroa — single · EV 94 mph · LA +20° · 231 ft Antolín Matos — double · EV 94 mph · LA +34° · 332 ft Orien Hoffken — error · EV 58 mph · LA -4° · 55 ft Reuben Leininger — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 146 ft Parker McNeal — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +26° · 210 ft Egan Guerrant — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +5° · 91 ft Brad Galloway — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 219 ft Reuben Leininger — double · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 182 ft Maximo Cardozo — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA -27° · 80 ft Antolín Matos — single · EV 81 mph · LA +0° · 77 ft Alafia Kelley — single · EV 89 mph · LA +17° · 175 ft Alexander Connelly — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Parker McNeal — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
82% deserve-to-win  ·  11.2 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  +4.8 vs expected
contact: 10.3 est bases + 13 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+4.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Omar Godín 92 / +17° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Berkeley Whitley 92 / +17° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Amarien Beigel 92 / +23° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Omar Godín 92 / +36° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Louis Badger 76 / +25° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Giants
18% deserve-to-win  ·  5.1 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.9 vs expected
contact: 10.1 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-2.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Reuben Leininger 92 / +16° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Antolín Matos 94 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Maximo Cardozo 89 / +39° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
José Marte 92 / +40° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Reuben Leininger 92 / +13° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
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