==============================================================================
Red Sox 3, Marlins 1                                        2026-08-21 · #1444
at North Ground
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   1    1    3    0
Boston                  3    3    4    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Vildoza ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Suárez      3b ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Mangin      2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Altamirano  1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fitzgerald  p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Enquist     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Narazak pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Nantze      j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Mothudi     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   1   3   2   0   0   1   4  13   0   0  0.115
  2B: Suárez (17), Mangin (12).
  CS: Suárez 2 (17), Mangin 2 (14).
  a-Struck out for Blackman in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Enquist in the 9th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cameron     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Redmond     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Merrill     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Venegas     3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Falby       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Saravia     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hodges      ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Cordano     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Echever pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  b-Pfister ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Pezzell ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Malard      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Strachan    j  ......    1   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  2.000
Totals                  15   3   4   1   0   0   3   3   9   1   0  0.267
  2B: Redmond (1).
  HBP: Malard (4).
  a-Ran for Pezzella in the 8th.
  b-Grounded out in the 7th.
  c-Walked in the 4th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Fitzgerald (L, 8-12)     18   14  52%    4    3    3    3    9    0   79    -

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Redmond .............     8    8  30%    2    0    0    1    3    0   29    -
Maldonado (W, 4-7) ..    15   14  52%    1    0    0    1    7    0   62    -
Gullikson ...........     7    5  19%    0    1    1    2    3    0   26  1-0

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-14)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Fitzgerald (Outs 1-14)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-14)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-14)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mangin (Outs 1-14)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suárez (Outs 1-14)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | —
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-14)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-14)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-14)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Redmond (Outs 1-8) → Maldonado (Outs 9-22) → Gullikson (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hodges (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cordano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted second; Marlins batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 66°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 502647.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 0.32
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 26 Keishiro Narazaki Cary Nantze (2B) 1–0 —
B 9 Bernard Strachan Denis Echeverría (3B) 1–1 0.17
B 14 Jacob Hodges Bernard Strachan (3B) 1–2 0.00
B 14 Jacob Hodges Denis Echeverría (2B) 1–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 0.32
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 1 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Ramon Blackman — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -15° · 65 ft Kendall Suárez — double · EV 104 mph · LA +32° · 387 ft Devon Mangin — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 227 ft Randall Fitzgerald — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +5° · 92 ft Jacobe Mothudi — line_out · EV 62 mph · LA +16° · 79 ft Keishiro Narazaki — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -7° · 62 ft Jean Altamirano — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +15° · 143 ft Kendall Suárez — single · EV 74 mph · LA -6° · 70 ft Cary Nantze — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +28° · 200 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Jason Enquist — fielders_choice · EV 90 mph · LA +4° · 86 ft Kendall Suárez — line_out · EV 56 mph · LA +16° · 67 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
6 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Richey Redmond — double · EV 101 mph · LA +29° · 343 ft Diego Saravia — fly_out · EV 58 mph · LA +32° · 121 ft Pancho Pfister — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +48° · 349 ft Bernard Strachan — fielders_choice · EV 62 mph · LA -10° · 59 ft Bernard Strachan — single · EV 61 mph · LA -6° · 58 ft Jacob Hodges — single · EV 69 mph · LA +25° · 147 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
25% deserve-to-win  ·  1.0 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  as expected
contact: 6.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 4 CS (-2.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Devon Mangin 100 / +17° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Kendall Suárez 74 / -6° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Jean Altamirano 85 / +15° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Randall Fitzgerald 96 / +5° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Jason Enquist 90 / +4° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Red Sox
75% deserve-to-win  ·  1.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 2.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (+2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bernard Strachan 62 / -10° Oppo Stay 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Bernard Strachan 61 / -6° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Jacob Hodges 69 / +25° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Richey Redmond 101 / +29° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Pancho Pfister 94 / +48° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →