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Royals 11, Beavers 3                                        2026-08-24 · #1476
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Kansas City            11   11   11    0
Portland                3    3    5    1

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Graham      lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Alinen      rf ......    3   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Tanguilig   c  ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Sabella     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Linneha pr ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Rosales     1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Altamir pr ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Talavera    cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Inglis  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Monson      2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Devens      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Fontes  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zingaro     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  e-Fuenzal ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Vera    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Gregory ph ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Selden  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Press       j  ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31  11  11   2   0   2  11   5   9   0   1  0.355
  2B: Press (8), Linnehan (9).
  HR: Alinen (3), off Henríquez; Gregory (1), off Kamiwazumi.
  CS: Tanguilig (13), Monson (2), Linnehan (7), Inglis (6).
  a-Ran for Sabella in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Rosales in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Talavera in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Devens in the 3rd.
  e-Singled for Zingaro in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Fuenzalida in the 3rd.
  g-Homered in the 8th.
  h-Singled in the 8th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tessema     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Clement     lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Turenne     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Aktaş       3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Holzworth   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zamora      c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
  a-Fuenzal ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  27   3   5   2   0   0   3   2  11   0   1  0.185
  2B: Aktaş (3), Fuenzalida (9).
  SB: Clement (12).
  CS: Clement (11).
  E: Tessema (6).
  HBP: Clement (5).
  GIDP: Tessema (10).
  a-Doubled in the 6th.

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Zingaro (W, 4-1) ....    12   12  44%    2    0    0    0    4    0   38    -
Ramallo .............    12    9  33%    3    3    3    1    5    0   41    -
Obaldía (F, 7) ......     6    6  22%    0    0    0    1    2    0   21  1-0

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Henríquez (L, 10-9) .    28   22  81%    8    7    3    5    6    1   83    -
Kamiwazumi ..........     7    5  19%    3    4    3    0    3    1   35  2-2

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Zingaro (Outs 1-12) → Ramallo (Outs 13-21) → Obaldía (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Tanguilig (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Monson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Devens (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sabella (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Graham (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Talavera (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alinen (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-22) → Kamiwazumi (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Zamora (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Royals batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM PT. Weather: 65°F · Wind cross · Overcast · Humid. seed 230596.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Fuenzalida NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Henríquez 1, off Kamiwazumi 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 13.50
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 2.00
     9 outs left: 4.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 7 Jhonder Fuenzalida Ramon Altamirano (3B) 1–0 —
T 7 Jhonder Fuenzalida Kael Monson (2B) 2–0 —
T 10 Chico Press Reinaldo Talavera (1B) 3–0 —
T 11 Landon Tanguilig Chico Press (3B) 4–0 —
T 20 Rich Linnehan Ramon Altamirano (1B) 5–0 —
T 22 Zach Alinen Zach Alinen (HR) 6–0 —
T 22 Chico Press Zach Alinen (3B) 7–0 —
T 22 Thomas Gregory George Graham (2B) 8–0 —
T 22 Thomas Gregory Chico Press (1B) 9–0 —
T 22 Thomas Gregory Thomas Gregory (HR) 10–0 —
T 22 Chris Selden Thomas Gregory (3B) 11–0 —
B 19 Dawood Aktaş Donis Zamora (3B) 11–1 4.12
B 19 Dawood Aktaş Jaime Fuenzalida (2B) 11–2 3.75
B 19 Yadier Guerra Dawood Aktaş (2B) 11–3 3.38
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 13.50
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 2.00
9 outs left 4.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Royals — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Landon Tanguilig — single · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 84 ft Efraín Sabella — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +15° · 183 ft Reinaldo Talavera — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 129 ft Beau Devens — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +31° · 233 ft Jhonder Fuenzalida — single · EV 87 mph · LA +0° · 83 ft Kael Monson — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +12° · 140 ft Chico Press — double · EV 114 mph · LA +28° · 423 ft Rich Linnehan — double · EV 98 mph · LA +45° · 387 ft Thomas Gregory — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +32° · 346 ft Chris Selden — single · EV 97 mph · LA +4° · 92 ft Reinaldo Talavera — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA +3° · 81 ft Landon Tanguilig — single · EV 109 mph · LA +21° · 316 ft Kael Monson — single · EV 71 mph · LA +16° · 107 ft Ramon Altamirano — error · EV 72 mph · LA -24° · 69 ft Chico Press — single · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 189 ft Reinaldo Talavera — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA -14° · 79 ft Landon Tanguilig — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -5° · 77 ft Zach Alinen — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +39° · 390 ft Ramon Altamirano — single · EV 79 mph · LA +18° · 149 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Val Clement — single · EV 62 mph · LA +13° · 68 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 67 ft Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 83 mph · LA +4° · 79 ft Yadier Guerra — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 85 ft Dawood Aktaş — fly_out · EV 61 mph · LA +36° · 142 ft Édison Henríquez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 172 ft Val Clement — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +9° · 80 ft Bonsa Tessema — double_play · EV 75 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Dawood Aktaş — line_out · EV 103 mph · LA +11° · 160 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -2° · 76 ft Dawood Aktaş — double · EV 98 mph · LA +48° · 383 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 90 mph · LA +18° · 187 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -26° · 75 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +3° · 80 ft Val Clement — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -1° · 68 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Royals
80% deserve-to-win  ·  7.4 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +3.6 vs expected
contact: 17.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 19.0 (+1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 4 CS (-2.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Thomas Gregory 98 / +32° Pull Home Run 1.1 → 4 +2.93
Zach Alinen 100 / +39° Pull Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Efraín Sabella 95 / +15° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Reinaldo Talavera 98 / +10° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Chico Press 114 / +28° Center Double 2.9 → 2 -0.93
Beavers
20% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 7.2 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dawood Aktaş 98 / +48° Center Double 0.6 → 2 +1.38
Dawood Aktaş 103 / +11° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Jaime Fuenzalida 92 / +15° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Holcombe Hydrick 83 / +4° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Val Clement 62 / +13° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
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