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Canaries 20, Orioles 8                                      2026-09-03 · #1568
at Rudy Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
New Jersey             20      0   20   21    1
Baltimore               8      0    8    7    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Richey  pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Pastore     c  ......    4   4   4   1   0   1   6   1   0   0   0  1.000
Kerr        rf ......    5   3   3   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.600
Campos      1b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Cordero     lf ......    5   1   3   1   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.600
Navarro     cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.200
Hollenbeck  ss ......    5   3   3   2   0   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.600
Tesfaye     p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Brickha pr ......    3   5   3   0   0   0   2   2   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Fishbac ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  43  20  21  10   0   1  20   5  12   0   0  0.488
  2B: Kramer (47), Pastore (18), Kerr 2 (33), Cordero (39), Lacava (26), Hollenbeck 2 (17), Tesfaye (2), Woodall (10).
  HR: Pastore (6), off Nealon.
  SB: Pastore (6).
  CS: Pastore (9).
  E: Woodall (2).
  HBP: Lacava (8).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Tesfaye in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 4th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ison        rf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Dennis      p  ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Samudio     3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Stokke      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Mateer  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Flowers     lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Michulk pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schloss     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sigourney   2b ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
Foust       ss ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.333
  c-Purchas ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   8   7   3   0   0   6   5   8   0   0  0.226
  2B: Ison (13), Dennis (4), Foust (19).
  SB: Michulka (6).
  GIDP: Foust (10), Mateer (6).
  a-Ran for Alison in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Flowers in the 7th.
  c-Batted in the 5th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Tesfaye .............     8    6   29  3.6    2    1    1    1    3    0    -
Rico (W, 1-0) .......     7    6   26  3.7    2    0    0    0    2    0  1-0
Bauman ..............     7    5   27  3.9    1    2    2    1    2    0  2-2
Junior ..............     7    4   31  4.4    1    2    2    2    0    0  2-1
Bramblett (F, 18) ...     7    6   25  3.6    1    3    1    1    1    0  2-2

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Dennis ..............    11    7   46  4.2    3    2    2    2    1    0    -
Schoenfield (L) .....     5    1   16  3.2    3    4    4    1    1    0  1-1
Roy .................     8    3   22  2.8    4    4    4    1    0    0  1-1
Nealon ..............     7    3   27  3.9    4    5    4    1    2    1  2-2
Chandronnait ........     7    6   32  4.6    1    2    2    0    4    0  2-1
Foxworth ............     7    6   33  4.7    2    2    2    0    4    0  1-1
Alison ..............     4    1   15  3.8    4    1    1    0    0    0    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Tesfaye (Outs 1-6) → Rico (Outs 7-12) → Bauman (Outs 13-17) → Junior (Outs 18-21) → Bramblett (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Campos (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-7) → Schoenfield (Outs 8-8) → Roy (Outs 9-11) → Nealon (Outs 12-14) → Chandronnait (Outs 15-20) → Foxworth (Outs 21-26) → Alison (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Stokke (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  Seconds: NJC o26 (20-0), BAL o26 (8-20).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain. seed 883416.
  Walk-Back runs: off Nealon 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.33    Peak faced 21.00
    27 outs left: 2.33
    18 outs left: 3.33
     9 outs left: 6.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Alemayehu Tesfaye Jerome Kerr (2B) 1–0 —
T 6 Alemayehu Tesfaye Tripp Hollenbeck (1B) 2–0 —
T 6 Jam Brickhandler Jam Brickhandler (2B) 3–0 —
T 6 Tripp Hollenbeck Jam Brickhandler (1B) 4–0 —
T 7 Grant Cordero Tripp Hollenbeck (2B) 5–0 —
T 7 Grant Cordero Ramón Navarro (1B) 6–0 —
T 7 Jesse Woodall Grant Cordero (2B) 7–0 —
T 9 Renaldo Pastore Jesse Woodall (2B) 8–0 —
T 10 Tripp Hollenbeck Renaldo Pastore (2B) 9–0 —
T 10 Roberto Lacava Tripp Hollenbeck (1B) 10–0 —
T 11 Grant Cordero Jam Brickhandler (3B) 11–0 —
T 11 Grant Cordero Roberto Lacava (2B) 12–0 —
T 13 Renaldo Pastore Jerome Kerr (2B) 13–0 —
T 13 Renaldo Pastore Renaldo Pastore (HR) 14–0 —
T 13 Andrea Kramer Renaldo Pastore (3B) 15–0 —
T 19 Renaldo Pastore Welby Richey (3B) 16–0 —
T 19 Renaldo Pastore Jam Brickhandler (2B) 17–0 —
T 20 Jam Brickhandler Renaldo Pastore (2B) 18–0 —
T 20 Tripp Hollenbeck Jam Brickhandler (1B) 19–0 —
T 25 Renaldo Pastore Jerome Kerr (2B) 20–0 —
B 3 Kristian Alison Brett Dennis (3B) 20–1 2.50
B 12 Dyllan Ison Sidney Foust (3B) 20–2 3.80
B 13 Rónald Samudio Geoff Michulka (3B) 20–3 3.86
B 20 Sidney Foust Dylan Purchase (3B) 20–4 7.29
B 20 Sidney Foust Kreigh Mateer (3B) 20–5 6.86
B 20 Mackenzie Sigourney Mackenzie Sigourney (3B) 20–6 6.43
B 22 Geoff Michulka Sidney Foust (2B) 20–7 8.40
B 25 Dyllan Ison Mackenzie Sigourney (3B) 20–8 19.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.33
Peak faced 21.00
27 outs left 2.33
18 outs left 3.33
9 outs left 6.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
27 BIP· 10 1B · 10 XBH · 1 HR
357' 498' 341' Jerome Kerr — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 75 mph · LA +6° · 71 ft Ramón Navarro — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -12° · 81 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 104 mph · LA +30° · 373 ft Alemayehu Tesfaye — double · EV 118 mph · LA +27° · 458 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 115 mph · LA +9° · 168 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 152 ft Jesse Woodall — double · EV 90 mph · LA +23° · 238 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 289 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 198 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +17° · 179 ft Andrea Kramer — fly_out · EV 117 mph · LA +22° · 378 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 75 mph · LA +20° · 144 ft Renaldo Pastore — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +24° · 401 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 75 mph · LA -16° · 71 ft Welby Richey — single · EV 81 mph · LA -1° · 77 ft Roberto Lacava — double · EV 110 mph · LA +34° · 451 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 118 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 94 mph · LA +23° · 257 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +30° · 344 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 119 mph · LA +25° · 434 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 402 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 156 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -26° · 80 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 95 mph · LA +14° · 175 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 240 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA +2° · 67 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Brett Dennis — double · EV 87 mph · LA +25° · 234 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 93 mph · LA +9° · 102 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -5° · 51 ft Kristian Alison — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +21° · 178 ft Sidney Foust — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Zaimir Schloss — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +17° · 145 ft Kreigh Mateer — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Sidney Foust — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 167 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 111 ft Korey Flowers — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 97 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +4° · 50 ft Brett Dennis — single · EV 52 mph · LA -21° · 49 ft Zaimir Schloss — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +8° · 70 ft Geoff Michulka — error · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Rónald Samudio — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -13° · 49 ft Dyllan Ison — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 221 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -11° · 52 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 114 ft Sidney Foust — error · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Zaimir Schloss — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Dyllan Ison — double · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 327 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
89% deserve-to-win  ·  17.5 expected runs
actual 20 runs  ·  +2.5 vs expected
contact: 32.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 34.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Renaldo Pastore 116 / +24° Oppo Home Run 1.7 → 4 +2.29
Roberto Lacava 104 / +30° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -2.00
Andrea Kramer 117 / +22° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Roberto Lacava 110 / +34° Pull Double 3.4 → 2 -1.38
Grant Cordero 94 / +17° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Orioles
11% deserve-to-win  ·  6.2 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +1.8 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brett Dennis 87 / +25° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.62
Sidney Foust 92 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Dyllan Ison 92 / +38° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Brett Dennis 52 / -21° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Kristian Alison 82 / +21° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
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