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Astros 4, Dodgers 3  (1 SI)                                  2026-06-11 · #755
at Wold Ground
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Houston                 3      1    4    3    0
Los Angeles             3      0    3   10    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Patridge    3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Colón   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Morales     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Braun       ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Thom        c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Hoffken pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gómez       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Takada      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Herrera ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Humphreys   rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Rivas   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Edmonso pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Arboled ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Borges  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  h-Farrow  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Trejo       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Oliveira    j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   4   3   0   0   1   4   4  19   0   0  0.103
  HR: Braun (4), off McDuffie.
  HBP: Trejo (3).
  GIDP: Gómez (3).
  a-Ran for Patridge in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Thom in the 8th.
  c-Batted for Takada in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Colón in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 3rd.
  f-Walked for Valencia in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Rivas in the 8th.

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Eggleston   3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ochoa       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
McDuffie    p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tena        lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bertrams    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Guarner ph ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Inman       cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Mokiao-Atim 1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Manaia      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Gerardy     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Lepchen ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Richey  pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Saffold pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Querrey pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Abbott      j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Kromah      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Monroe      j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  36   3  10   2   0   1   3   2  16   0   0  0.278
  2B: Guarnera (4), Monroe (7).
  HR: Mokiao-Atimalala (1), off Faber.
  CS: Richey (4).
  GIDP: McDuffie (1).
  a-Batted for Bertrams in the 4th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.
  c-Ran in the 6th.
  d-Ran in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Richey in the 7th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ayala (W, 4-1) ......    20   16  59%    6    1    1    1    7    0   74    -
Faber ...............     4    3  11%    1    2    2    0    3    1   21  1-1
Benguché ............    12   11  41%    2    0    0    1    6    0   44    -

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
McDuffie (L, 2-2) ...    27   24  89%    1    2    2    4   15    1  123    -
Hurley ..............     6    4  15%    2    2    2    0    4    0   20  1-0
Arozarena ...........     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0   13  1-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ayala (Outs 1-16) → Faber (Outs 17-19) → Benguché (Outs 20-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gómez (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Patridge (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Takada (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Henríquez (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-30)

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | McDuffie (Outs 1-24) → Hurley (Outs 25-28) → Arozarena (Outs 29-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Manaia (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mokiao-Atimalala (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gerardy (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Eggleston (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tena (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Inman (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bertrams (Outs 1-30)

  Batting order: Dodgers (home) batted second; Astros batted first.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 7:05 PM PT. Weather: 83°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 489864.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 9 Maxi Valencia Rubén Colón (3B) 1–0
T 21 Iapani Thom Everett Farrow (2B) 2–0
T 25 Marcelo Oliveira Orien Hoffken (3B) 3–0
B 13 Wallace Monroe Berkeley Abbott (1B) 3–1
B 14 Ben Mokiao-Atimalala Wallace Monroe (2B) 3–2
B 14 Ben Mokiao-Atimalala Ben Mokiao-Atimalala (HR) 3–3
ST 29 Brayan Braun Brayan Braun (HR) 4–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Wold Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 395' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Astros — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
338' 395' 346' Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 103 mph · LA -0° · 98 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -3° · 62 ft Maxi Valencia — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +12° · 106 ft Scoville Rivas — fielders_choice · EV 77 mph · LA -10° · 73 ft Marcelo Oliveira — single · EV 95 mph · LA +22° · 249 ft Everett Farrow — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 104 ft Mayer Gómez — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA +0° · 77 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 96 mph · LA -3° · 91 ft Brayan Braun — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +32° · 436 ft
Dodgers — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
338' 395' 346' Dylan Bertrams — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 158 ft Oliver Inman — single · EV 106 mph · LA +3° · 100 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 172 ft Tanner Gerardy — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -17° · 77 ft Berkeley Abbott — single · EV 109 mph · LA +17° · 268 ft Wallace Monroe — double · EV 93 mph · LA +28° · 284 ft Jerome Saffold — single · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 110 ft Daylan Querrey — single · EV 99 mph · LA +24° · 288 ft Paolo Tena — single · EV 90 mph · LA +6° · 86 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — hr · EV 107 mph · LA +34° · 426 ft Bautista Ochoa — single · EV 105 mph · LA -0° · 100 ft Guillaume McDuffie — double_play · EV 69 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Lenny Eggleston — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +28° · 249 ft Tanner Gerardy — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +32° · 211 ft Wyatt Guarnera — double · EV 104 mph · LA +11° · 165 ft Guillaume McDuffie — line_out · EV 91 mph · LA +16° · 172 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
42% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 7.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Everett Farrow 88 / +10° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Maxi Valencia 81 / +12° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Brayan Braun 110 / +32° Pull Home Run 3.4 → 4 +0.56
Iapani Thom 96 / -3° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Jeyland Morales 103 / +0° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.43
Dodgers
58% deserve-to-win  ·  5.2 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 14.2 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-0.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Wallace Monroe 93 / +28° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Ben Mokiao-Atimalala 100 / +13° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Ben Mokiao-Atimalala 107 / +34° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.05
Guillaume McDuffie 91 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Berkeley Abbott 109 / +17° Oppo Single 1.7 → 1 -0.72
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