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Lima BC 11, Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers 7                 2046-04-18 · #806
at Reyes Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Lima                    8      3   11   15    0
Aberdeen                6      1    7    9    2

LIMA BC
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Krmenčík    lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Kuki    pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Wilson      1b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Howell      cf ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   1   0  0.500
Bachan      c  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
García      rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Docherty    ss ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.333
Toone       3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Jones   ph ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
  c-Jack    ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Service pr ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Weber       j  ......    4   3   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.750
Totals                  36  11  15   7   0   0  11   5   7   1   0  0.417
  2B: Kuki (4), Howell (2), Bachan (9), García (1), Weber 2 (10), Service (2).
  SB: Docherty (1).
  CS: Wilson (5).
  GIDP: Wilson (2).
  a-Ran for Krmenčík in the 1st.
  b-Batted in the 2nd.
  c-Batted in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 3rd.

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shurtleff   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Karas       2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Carusa      c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Carroll     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Payne       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Moravec ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Telford c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Ramsey  cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Pešek   ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Agnew   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Celis   lf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Pavlenk pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Edwards ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Mount   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Hemp    ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kudryavtsev j  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Williams    j  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zelem       j  ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   2   1   0  0.667
Totals                  30   7   9   2   0   1   7   6   9   1   0  0.300
  2B: Celis (4), Kudryavtseva (8).
  HR: Moravec (1), off Clover.
  SB: Celis (3), Karas (5).
  CS: Pešek (1), Celis (1), Karas (4).
  E: Agnew (1), Moravec (1).
  HBP: Williams (4).
  a-Batted for Payne in the 7th.
  b-Entered at C in the 3rd.
  c-Entered at CF in the 3rd.
  d-Entered at SS in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Pešek in the 6th.
  f-Entered at LF in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Telford in the 7th.
  h-Struck out for Williams in the 7th.
  i-Ran in the 8th.
  j-Singled for Ramsey in the 8th.

LIMA BC PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Clover (W, 1-1) .....    23   19  70%    5    2    2    4    6    1   82    -
O'Sullivan ..........     7    4  15%    2    2    2    1    2    0   26  1-0
Shulze ..............     4    1   4%    2    2    2    1    1    0   16  2-1
Ivanova .............     3    3  11%    0    1    1    0    0    0    9  3-1

ABERDEEN UNIVERSAL WATCHMAKERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Payne ...............    18   10  37%    7    5    2    2    3    0   58    -
Hruban ..............    10    6  22%    4    2    2    2    2    0   28  2-1
Lewis (L, 0-2) ......    13   11  41%    4    4    3    1    2    0   46  3-2

  Batting order: Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers (home) batted second; Lima BC batted first.
  Seconds: LB o25 (8-0), AUW o25 (6-8).
  First pitch 6:40 PM. Weather: 71°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 843770.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 6 Gavin Jack Graham Docherty (3B) 1–0
T 7 Brian Wilson Florian Weber (2B) 2–0
T 8 Waltclaire Howell Gruffydd Service (3B) 3–0
T 12 Gruffydd Service Daren Bachan (3B) 4–0
T 14 Waltclaire Howell Gruffydd Service (3B) 5–0
T 14 Waltclaire Howell Masaaki Kuki (2B) 6–0
T 21 Masaaki Kuki Daren Bachan (2B) 7–0
T 24 Steeven Jones Florian Weber (3B) 8–0
B 17 Jarrod Zelem Papu Celis (3B) 8–1
B 20 Ramon Williams Dalibor Pavlenka (3B) 8–2
B 20 Jarrod Zelem Igor Kudryavtseva (3B) 8–3
B 21 Igor Kudryavtseva Eberechi Mount (3B) 8–4
B 22 Matthew Hemp Ramon Williams (3B) 8–5
B 23 Dalibor Pavlenka Igor Kudryavtseva (3B) 8–6
seconds_first 0 Graham Docherty Hanley García (2B) 9–6
seconds_first 0 Florian Weber Graham Docherty (1B) 10–6
seconds_first 1 Gavin Jack Florian Weber (2B) 11–6
seconds_second 1 František Moravec František Moravec (HR) 11–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Reyes Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 317' · CF 419' · RF 333' · 26' wall). Balanced.
Ivy Wall
Lima BC — Batted Balls
29 BIP· 8 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
317' 419' 333' Wall 26' Ondřej Krmenčík — single · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 260 ft Brian Wilson — single · EV 89 mph · LA -8° · 85 ft Waltclaire Howell — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +4° · 91 ft Daren Bachan — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 387 ft Steeven Jones — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +36° · 192 ft Callum Toone — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 166 ft Florian Weber — error · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 83 ft Graham Docherty — line_out · EV 69 mph · LA +13° · 82 ft Gruffydd Service — double · EV 103 mph · LA +16° · 228 ft Gavin Jack — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +7° · 65 ft Brian Wilson — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 103 ft Waltclaire Howell — infield_single · EV 74 mph · LA -12° · 70 ft Florian Weber — double · EV 94 mph · LA +13° · 155 ft Daren Bachan — double · EV 104 mph · LA +47° · 430 ft Gruffydd Service — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +21° · 184 ft Masaaki Kuki — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 275 ft Brian Wilson — single · EV 79 mph · LA -11° · 75 ft Waltclaire Howell — double · EV 93 mph · LA +13° · 152 ft Steeven Jones — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -10° · 66 ft Daren Bachan — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +7° · 93 ft Graham Docherty — single · EV 112 mph · LA -12° · 107 ft Florian Weber — double · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 152 ft Gavin Jack — error · EV 80 mph · LA -1° · 76 ft Waltclaire Howell — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +33° · 438 ft Brian Wilson — double_play · EV 73 mph · LA -3° · 69 ft Waltclaire Howell — error · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Steeven Jones — single · EV 92 mph · LA -3° · 87 ft Hanley García — double · EV 98 mph · LA +27° · 306 ft Florian Weber — single · EV 119 mph · LA +8° · 113 ft
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
317' 419' 333' Wall 26' Padraig Carusa — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 328 ft Fabian Telford — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Radek Karas — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 116 ft Oisin Payne — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA -12° · 58 ft Papu Celis — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 305 ft Maddux Agnew — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +44° · 231 ft Matthew Hemp — single · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Dalibor Pavlenka — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Fabian Telford — single · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Jarrod Zelem — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -15° · 65 ft Padraig Carusa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Igor Kudryavtseva — double · EV 79 mph · LA +36° · 237 ft Maddux Agnew — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 322 ft František Moravec — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +42° · 462 ft Jarrod Zelem — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Ben Shurtleff — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +19° · 76 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Lima BC
85% deserve-to-win  ·  16.2 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  -5.2 vs expected
contact: 24.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 21.0 (-3.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Waltclaire Howell 110 / +33° Center Out 3.5 → 0 -3.49
Daren Bachan 100 / +38° Center Out 2.1 → 0 -2.09
Florian Weber 94 / +13° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Florian Weber 88 / +15° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.14
Brian Wilson 92 / +9° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.86
Aberdeen Universal Watchmakers
15% deserve-to-win  ·  6.8 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.2 vs expected
contact: 12.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+1.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 3 CS (-1.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Igor Kudryavtseva 79 / +36° Pull Double 0.1 → 2 +1.87
Padraig Carusa 92 / +38° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Fabian Telford 92 / +34° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Maddux Agnew 92 / +36° Center Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Papu Celis 92 / +32° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
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