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Canaries 30, Marlins 2                                       2026-06-17 · #817
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   2    2    2    0
New Jersey             30   30   23    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mangin      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Corzo       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ashley      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Todd-Willia 2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Trevino     ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Yanagi      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.333
  a-Vildoza ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  27   2   2   1   0   0   2   1  16   0   1  0.074
  2B: Vildoza (3).
  a-Doubled in the 7th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    3   3   3   2   0   0   4   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Hlavack pr ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Kerr        rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Cordero     c  ......    6   4   5   1   0   1   6   0   0   0   0  0.833
Lacava      3b ......    3   3   1   0   1   0   2   3   0   0   0  0.333
Conway      1b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   3   1   1   0   1  0.500
Carmona     cf ......    5   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.200
Tejeda      lf ......    5   4   2   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.400
Hollenbeck  ss ......    5   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Ortiz       p  ......    4   4   4   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   2  1.000
  b-Ali     ph ......    4   5   4   3   0   1   6   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  43  30  23   7   1   3  29   9   8   0   3  0.535
  2B: Kramer 2 (26), Cordero (26), Conway (7), Ali 3 (28).
  3B: Lacava (3).
  HR: Cordero (18), off Beasley; Ortiz (1), off Joly; Ali (11), off Dawe.
  CS: Cordero (12).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 5th.
  b-Batted in the 3rd.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Yanagi (L, 1-9) .....    11    2   7%    7    9    9    3    0    0   46    -
Dawe ................    17   10  37%    7    9    8    3    3    1   71  1-0
Joly ................    14   11  41%    5    7    6    1    4    1   46  1-1
Beasley .............     9    4  15%    4    5    4    2    1    1   39    -

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ortiz (W, 3-2) ......    13   12  44%    1    0    0    0    9    0   44    -
Tesfaye .............    13   11  41%    1    2    2    1    6    0   45  1-1
Arnoux (F, 46) ......     3    4  15%    0    0    0    0    2    0    9  1-0

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Yanagi (Outs 1-2) → Dawe (Outs 3-12) → Joly (Outs 13-23) → Beasley (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Ashley (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Todd-Williams (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Trevino (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ortiz (Outs 1-12) → Tesfaye (Outs 13-23) → Arnoux (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Conway (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM ET. Weather: 80°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 940658.
  Walk-Back runs: off Dawe 1, off Joly 1, off Beasley 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 3.44    Peak faced 14.50
    27 outs left: 3.44
    18 outs left: 5.17
     9 outs left: 9.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 0 Grant Cordero Andrea Kramer (2B) 0–1 —
B 0 Roberto Lacava Jerome Kerr (2B) 0–2 —
B 0 Roberto Lacava Grant Cordero (1B) 0–3 —
B 0 Boris Carmona Roberto Lacava (3B) 0–4 —
B 0 Leonardo Tejeda Leo Conway (2B) 0–5 —
B 0 Yadiel Ortiz Boris Carmona (3B) 0–6 —
B 1 Andrea Kramer Leonardo Tejeda (3B) 0–7 —
B 1 Andrea Kramer Tripp Hollenbeck (2B) 0–8 —
B 2 Grant Cordero Andrea Kramer (1B) 0–9 —
B 7 Andrea Kramer Leonardo Tejeda (2B) 0–10 —
B 7 Andrea Kramer Yadiel Ortiz (1B) 0–11 —
B 7 Rodmond Ali Andrea Kramer (2B) 0–12 —
B 7 Grant Cordero Rodmond Ali (2B) 0–13 —
B 12 Rodmond Ali Leonardo Tejeda (3B) 0–14 —
B 12 Rodmond Ali Yadiel Ortiz (2B) 0–15 —
B 12 Rodmond Ali Jared Hlavacka (1B) 0–16 —
B 12 Rodmond Ali Rodmond Ali (HR) 0–17 —
B 12 Grant Cordero Rodmond Ali (3B) 0–18 —
B 13 Boris Carmona Grant Cordero (3B) 0–19 —
B 14 Leonardo Tejeda Roberto Lacava (3B) 0–20 —
B 15 Yadiel Ortiz Leonardo Tejeda (2B) 0–21 —
B 15 Yadiel Ortiz Yadiel Ortiz (HR) 0–22 —
B 15 Jared Hlavacka Yadiel Ortiz (3B) 0–23 —
B 15 Rodmond Ali Jared Hlavacka (1B) 0–24 —
B 17 Leo Conway Rodmond Ali (2B) 0–25 —
B 23 Grant Cordero Rodmond Ali (2B) 0–26 —
B 23 Grant Cordero Grant Cordero (HR) 0–27 —
B 23 Leo Conway Grant Cordero (3B) 0–28 —
B 23 Leo Conway Roberto Lacava (1B) 0–29 —
B 26 Yadiel Ortiz Boris Carmona (2B) 0–30 —
T 15 Máximo Vildoza Shota Yanagi (3B) 1–30 7.50
T 15 Máximo Vildoza Wallace Enterline (1B) 2–30 7.25
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 3.44
Peak faced 14.50
27 outs left 3.44
18 outs left 5.17
9 outs left 9.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Marlins — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Antwone Guerra — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +21° · 208 ft Bob Todd-Williams — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -12° · 50 ft Shota Yanagi — single · EV 91 mph · LA +15° · 165 ft Wilmer Corzo — error · EV 85 mph · LA +19° · 177 ft Máximo Vildoza — double · EV 113 mph · LA +11° · 194 ft Israel Trevino — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +1° · 76 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +11° · 68 ft Norm Ashley — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Antwone Guerra — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -11° · 89 ft Bob Todd-Williams — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -6° · 81 ft Israel Trevino — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA -12° · 74 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
34 BIP· 12 1B · 8 XBH · 3 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 150 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 132 ft Roberto Lacava — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +13° · 247 ft Boris Carmona — single · EV 110 mph · LA +6° · 105 ft Leonardo Tejeda — single · EV 111 mph · LA -4° · 106 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 191 ft Leo Conway — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 201 ft Yadiel Ortiz — single · EV 100 mph · LA -15° · 95 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 292 ft Jared Hlavacka — single · EV 80 mph · LA -17° · 76 ft Andrea Kramer — single · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 341 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 119 mph · LA +23° · 413 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +33° · 277 ft Leonardo Tejeda — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 122 ft Yadiel Ortiz — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Rodmond Ali — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +45° · 480 ft Jared Hlavacka — ground_out · EV 108 mph · LA +8° · 102 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 98 mph · LA +38° · 376 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Boris Carmona — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 387 ft Leonardo Tejeda — single · EV 90 mph · LA -8° · 86 ft Yadiel Ortiz — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 388 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 372 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +34° · 305 ft Leo Conway — single · EV 93 mph · LA +8° · 99 ft Jared Hlavacka — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 119 mph · LA +9° · 168 ft Leonardo Tejeda — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 117 mph · LA +17° · 304 ft Leo Conway — double · EV 113 mph · LA +14° · 231 ft Yadiel Ortiz — single · EV 112 mph · LA +9° · 150 ft Grant Cordero — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +26° · 244 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +2° · 68 ft Grant Cordero — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
1% deserve-to-win  ·  2.1 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Antwone Guerra 88 / +21° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Wilmer Corzo 85 / +19° Pull Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Máximo Vildoza 113 / +11° Center Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Norm Ashley 76 / +11° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Antwone Guerra 94 / -11° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.37
Canaries
99% deserve-to-win  ·  24.4 expected runs
actual 30 runs  ·  +5.6 vs expected
contact: 40.8 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 41.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yadiel Ortiz 100 / +38° Center Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Boris Carmona 100 / +38° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Roberto Lacava 119 / +13° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.48
Jerome Kerr 100 / +14° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Leonardo Tejeda 100 / +9° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
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