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Brewers 6, Marlins 2                                         2026-06-19 · #835
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               6    6    9    0
Miami                   2    2    2    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Edwards     lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Williams    1b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Prather pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Espinoza    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gentry      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Bangoura    rf ......    3   1   2   2   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Kass        cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Trejo       2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Ishida  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Kollen      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Irving  ph ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Ayers       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Eggleston   j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  29   6   9   4   0   0   5   4   8   0   0  0.310
  2B: Williams (18), Bangoura 2 (15), Kass (3).
  CS: Bangoura (3).
  HBP: Trejo (2).
  GIDP: Bangoura (3).
  a-Ran for Williams in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Trejo in the 7th.
  c-Batted for Kollen in the 3rd.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Enquist     cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Narazaki    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Mangin      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
Baird       p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Trevino     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Corzo       3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Beasley     1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Ashley      c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.250
Totals                  25   2   2   0   0   0   2   3  10   0   2  0.080
  Squeeze: Enterline (1 RBI), Mangin (1 RBI).


BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Kollen (W, 10-1) ....    26   27 100%    1    2    2    3   10    0   93    -

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Baird (L, 3-10) .....    31   24  89%    9    6    6    3    7    0  103    -
Offord ..............     3    3  11%    0    0    0    1    1    0    8  1-0

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Kollen (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Williams (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kass (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bangoura (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Baird (Outs 1-24) → Offord (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ashley (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Beasley (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Narazaki (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corzo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Trevino (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 95°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 874243.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 7.50
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Francis Trejo Cannon Prather (3B) 1–0 —
T 11 Johan Bangoura Thierry Kass (3B) 2–0 —
T 19 Johan Bangoura Sergio Saravia (2B) 3–0 —
T 21 Cannon Prather Toshihiro Ishida (3B) 4–0 —
T 22 Daniel Edwards Johan Bangoura (2B) 5–0 —
T 23 Sergio Saravia Daniel Edwards (2B) 6–0 —
B 5 Devon Mangin Wilmer Corzo (3B) 6–1 0.82
B 16 Wallace Enterline Alexander Beasley (3B) 6–2 1.36
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 7.50
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Brewers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 5 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Jesse Williams — double · EV 102 mph · LA +43° · 414 ft Andres Espinoza — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 395 ft Noel Gentry — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Francis Trejo — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +28° · 196 ft Robby Kollen — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 131 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 150 ft Johan Bangoura — double · EV 102 mph · LA +17° · 231 ft Cannon Prather — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +53° · 370 ft Sergio Saravia — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 296 ft Thierry Kass — double · EV 95 mph · LA +15° · 183 ft Clifford Irving — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +31° · 266 ft Francis Trejo — single · EV 92 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft Johan Bangoura — double · EV 95 mph · LA +23° · 257 ft Cannon Prather — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +38° · 381 ft Sergio Saravia — single · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 89 mph · LA +0° · 85 ft Clifford Irving — single · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 76 ft Johan Bangoura — double_play · EV 61 mph · LA -13° · 58 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -14° · 74 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Keishiro Narazaki — fly_out · EV 66 mph · LA +55° · 163 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA +15° · 65 ft Keishiro Narazaki — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -15° · 59 ft Jason Enquist — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +42° · 242 ft Treston Baird — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Devon Mangin — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 152 ft Norm Ashley — single · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
99% deserve-to-win  ·  8.1 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -2.1 vs expected
contact: 15.0 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-2.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Andres Espinoza 100 / +42° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Cannon Prather 99 / +38° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Thierry Kass 95 / +15° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Robby Kollen 90 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Johan Bangoura 95 / +23° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Marlins
1% deserve-to-win  ·  0.9 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +1.1 vs expected
contact: 1.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-0.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Norm Ashley 76 / -5° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Devon Mangin 76 / +20° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Jason Enquist 56 / +15° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Treston Baird 64 / +10° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Wallace Enterline 76 / +4° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
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