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BHP Wolves 8, Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd 3     2046-04-19 · #840
at Same Field
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                8      -    8   11    1
Wellington              3      0    3    6    0

BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maley       1b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Calhoun     lf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Vukovic     ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Henry       c  ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Gregorius   cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Marsh       2b ......    4   2   3   2   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.750
Murphy      rf ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Goodwin     3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Motum       p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.333
Neill       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  31   8  11   4   0   0   8   4   5   0   1  0.355
  2B: Maley (12), Calhoun (12), Marsh 2 (6).
  CS: Goodwin (3).
  E: Murphy (1).
  GIDP: Henry (1).


WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Spiranovic  rf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Ban         lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Campbell    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mitchell    cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Clarke      c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Davidson    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Catley      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Latham      p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.500
  a-Scott   3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hakala      j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Moore       j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Totals                  31   3   6   0   0   0   3   1  14   0   1  0.194

  a-Entered at 3B in the 7th.

BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Motum (W, 1-0) ......    25   21  78%    4    2    1    1   12    0   99    -
Harrison (F, 6) .....     7    6  22%    2    1    1    0    2    0   22  2-1

WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Latham (L, 0-2) .....    17    8  30%    8    6    6    2    0    0   51    -
Talbot ..............    16   17  63%    3    2    2    2    4    0   64  2-1
Kellond-Knight ......     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0    9    -

  Batting order: Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd (home) batted second; BHP Wolves batted first.
  Seconds: WNS o25 (3-8).
  First pitch 4:05 PM PETT. Weather: 44°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 956682.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Jack Marsh Fred Calhoun (2B) 1–0
T 4 Nathaniel Motum Lindsay Henry (3B) 2–0
T 4 Damien Maley Jack Marsh (3B) 3–0
T 4 Damien Maley Greg Murphy (2B) 4–0
T 4 Cam Vukovic Damien Maley (3B) 5–0
T 6 Greg Murphy Lindsay Henry (3B) 6–0
T 16 Aron Goodwin Jack Marsh (3B) 7–0
T 20 Jack Marsh Greg Murphy (3B) 8–0
B 9 Hamish Moore Niko Hakala (3B) 8–1
B 18 Hamish Moore James Catley (2B) 8–2
B 23 Jock Clarke Mateo Latham (2B) 8–3
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Same Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 339' · CF 409' · RF 327' · 18' wall). Balanced.
Ivy Wall Scoreboard Clock
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 7 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
339' 409' 327' Wall 18' Damien Maley — single · EV 83 mph · LA -15° · 79 ft Fred Calhoun — double · EV 107 mph · LA +39° · 451 ft Cam Vukovic — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +36° · 280 ft Nathan Gregorius — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +38° · 253 ft Jack Marsh — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 204 ft Aron Goodwin — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 148 ft Nathaniel Motum — infield_single · EV 69 mph · LA -13° · 66 ft Lindsay Henry — single · EV 78 mph · LA -0° · 74 ft Greg Murphy — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA +4° · 66 ft Damien Maley — double · EV 97 mph · LA +20° · 239 ft Fred Calhoun — single · EV 86 mph · LA +15° · 143 ft Cam Vukovic — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 358 ft Nathan Gregorius — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA +2° · 74 ft Jack Marsh — single · EV 80 mph · LA -2° · 76 ft Greg Murphy — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +23° · 170 ft Nathaniel Motum — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +24° · 281 ft Fred Calhoun — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +38° · 267 ft Cam Vukovic — line_out · EV 102 mph · LA +19° · 256 ft Nathan Gregorius — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +27° · 216 ft Aron Goodwin — single · EV 91 mph · LA +21° · 223 ft Lindsay Henry — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA +2° · 61 ft Jack Marsh — double · EV 99 mph · LA +22° · 268 ft Nathan Gregorius — single · EV 104 mph · LA +22° · 306 ft
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 6 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
339' 409' 327' Wall 18' Dong-gun Ban — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -6° · 85 ft Niko Hakala — single · EV 73 mph · LA +13° · 91 ft Jock Clarke — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 118 ft James Catley — error · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 147 ft Mateo Latham — single · EV 93 mph · LA -1° · 89 ft Hamish Moore — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Niko Hakala — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +24° · 209 ft Dyson Campbell — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Vince Spiranovic — infield_single · EV 67 mph · LA +4° · 64 ft Hamish Moore — single · EV 79 mph · LA +21° · 165 ft Dyson Campbell — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 202 ft Jock Clarke — single · EV 78 mph · LA +17° · 135 ft Vince Spiranovic — single · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 150 ft Garang Davidson — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +12° · 154 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
BHP Wolves
90% deserve-to-win  ·  10.2 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 19.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-4.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cam Vukovic 102 / +19° Pull Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Cam Vukovic 100 / +31° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.38
Nathaniel Motum 98 / +24° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.31
Fred Calhoun 107 / +39° Center Double 3.0 → 2 -1.01
Nathaniel Motum 69 / -13° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.83
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd
10% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 8.2 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-2.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Garang Davidson 96 / +12° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.16
Dyson Campbell 92 / +39° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Jock Clarke 94 / +10° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.87
Vince Spiranovic 67 / +4° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.86
James Catley 83 / +16° Oppo Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.62
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