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Orcas 8, Dodgers 2                                           2026-06-21 · #861
at Wold Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Vancouver               8    8    8    0
Los Angeles             2    2    9    2

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Valdivia    ss ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Badger      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Peavy       cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Godín       lf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.500
Balotelli   2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Irvin       rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Prince  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Noonan      c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Whitley pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Corona      1b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Velez       p  ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Alonso- pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Teeguar pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Roker       j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   0  0.333
Turrentine  j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   8   8   4   0   0   8   4  10   1   0  0.250
  2B: Valdivia (1), Peavy (6), Godín (11), Velez (1).
  SB: Valdivia (4).
  CS: Godín (5).
  GIDP: Irvin (4).
  a-Ran for Irvin in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Noonan in the 2nd.
  c-Ran for Velez in the 2nd.
  d-Ran for Prince in the 5th.

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ochoa       ss ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Manaia  pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Tena        lf ......    2   0   2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Lepchen pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Llorente    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Egglest ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gilbert     cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Mokiao-Atim 1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Glatch  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bertrams    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Boyajya ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gerardy     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Swanson     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Richey      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  f-Gleason ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Roby    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kromah      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   2   9   0   2   0   2   0  11   0   0  0.290
  3B: Tena 2 (4).
  E: Eggleston (5), Gleason (2).
  GIDP: Kromah (4).
  a-Ran for Ochoa in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Tena in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Llorente in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Mokiao-Atimalala in the 7th.
  e-Singled for Bertrams in the 4th.
  f-Batted in the 5th.
  g-Ran in the 5th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Velez (W, 9-8) ......    31   27 100%    9    2    2    0   11    0   96    -

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Llorente ............     4    1   4%    2    2    1    0    1    0   11    -
McDuffie (L, 3-3) ...    11    9  33%    4    2    2    1    4    0   48  1-0
Aupiu ...............    15   11  41%    1    4    4    3    2    0   52  1-0
Tapia ...............     6    6  22%    1    0    0    0    3    0   25  1-0

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Velez (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Corona (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Balotelli (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Badger (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Valdivia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Godín (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Irvin (Outs 1-27)

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Llorente (Outs 1-1) → McDuffie (Outs 2-10) → Aupiu (Outs 11-21) → Tapia (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Richey (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mokiao-Atimalala (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Swanson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gerardy (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tena (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gilbert (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bertrams (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Dodgers (home) batted second; Orcas batted first.
  First pitch 1:35 PM PT. Weather: 83°F · Wind in · Clear · Light rain. seed 352145.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.00    Peak faced 21.00
    27 outs left: 1.00
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 2.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Andrea Peavy Moisés Valdivia (2B) 1–0 —
T 1 Omar Godín Andrea Peavy (3B) 2–0 —
T 5 Youstin Velez Berkeley Whitley (3B) 3–0 —
T 7 Stuart Irvin Jeff Prince (3B) 4–0 —
T 14 Earthna Roker Ivan Teeguarden (3B) 5–0 —
T 17 Karim Balotelli Moisés Valdivia (3B) 6–0 —
T 18 Omar Godín Earthna Roker (3B) 7–0 —
T 18 Omar Godín Ivan Teeguarden (2B) 8–0 —
B 11 Jed Boyajyan Andy Lepchenko (3B) 8–1 1.50
B 11 Tanner Gerardy Lawson Glatch (2B) 8–2 1.31
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.00
Peak faced 21.00
27 outs left 1.00
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 2.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Wold Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 395' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Orcas — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Moisés Valdivia — double · EV 90 mph · LA +39° · 316 ft Andrea Peavy — double · EV 103 mph · LA +16° · 223 ft Omar Godín — error · EV 81 mph · LA +7° · 77 ft Stuart Irvin — double_play · EV 71 mph · LA -10° · 68 ft Youstin Velez — double · EV 107 mph · LA +10° · 157 ft Earthna Roker — single · EV 90 mph · LA +21° · 214 ft Coen Turrentine — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 161 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Earthna Roker — fly_out · EV 72 mph · LA +30° · 175 ft Youstin Velez — single · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Stuart Irvin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 83 ft Louis Badger — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 82 ft Earthna Roker — error · EV 69 mph · LA -7° · 66 ft Berkeley Whitley — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -13° · 77 ft Omar Godín — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 142 ft Karim Balotelli — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +6° · 58 ft Andrea Peavy — line_out · EV 72 mph · LA +12° · 87 ft Earthna Roker — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +11° · 66 ft Berkeley Whitley — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -1° · 57 ft Lautaro Corona — single · EV 89 mph · LA -9° · 85 ft
Dodgers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Dean Gilbert — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +34° · 353 ft Paolo Tena — triple · EV 104 mph · LA +14° · 207 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 168 ft Bautista Ochoa — single · EV 80 mph · LA +3° · 76 ft Colton Swanson — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +41° · 287 ft Lenny Eggleston — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -8° · 69 ft Jed Boyajyan — single · EV 99 mph · LA +8° · 112 ft Tomm Kromah — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA -2° · 57 ft Andy Lepchenko — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +4° · 61 ft Hemi Manaia — single · EV 94 mph · LA -13° · 89 ft Dean Gilbert — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +6° · 66 ft Paolo Tena — triple · EV 101 mph · LA +23° · 297 ft Ben Mokiao-Atimalala — single · EV 85 mph · LA +10° · 102 ft Tanner Gerardy — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Bautista Ochoa — single · EV 73 mph · LA +2° · 69 ft Lenny Eggleston — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +18° · 162 ft Elliott Gleason — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA -14° · 67 ft Dean Gilbert — single · EV 80 mph · LA +13° · 108 ft Dean Gilbert — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 290 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
64% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+2.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Omar Godín 92 / +12° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Moisés Valdivia 90 / +39° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Andrea Peavy 103 / +16° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Youstin Velez 83 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
Youstin Velez 107 / +10° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.61
Dodgers
36% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -2.0 vs expected
contact: 11.0 est bases + 0 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+2.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Paolo Tena 104 / +14° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.61
Paolo Tena 101 / +23° Oppo Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.58
Dean Gilbert 98 / +34° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Elliott Gleason 70 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Bautista Ochoa 73 / +2° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
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