==============================================================================
Stars 7, Reds 4                                              2026-06-22 · #871
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1      2    R    H    E
Cincinnati              4      0    4    3    0
Nashville               7      -    7    6    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Murakami    1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-David   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dawkins     ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Cox     pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ribera      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Suarez  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Corozo      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Dilworth    c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Celso       p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.333
Totals                  24   4   3   0   0   1   4   5   8   0   1  0.125
  HR: Cox (1), off Forrest.
  SB: Celso (1).
  CS: Murakami (9).
  HBP: Dawkins (3), Ribera (3).
  GIDP: Corozo (3), Suarez (6).
  a-Batted for Tsoubanos in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Dawkins in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Ribera in the 5th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cantey      c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fusano      2b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    2   2   2   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Boattin     ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Caballe pr ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Torrero     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Menéndez    3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Gamboa  pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gayton      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Faríñez     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  c-Karouan ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Sapping ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Giannou     j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  25   7   6   1   0   2   7   8   9   0   1  0.240
  2B: Caballero (7).
  HR: Spence (1), off Kirks; Giannou (4), off Gullickson.
  CS: Gamboa (3).
  HBP: Spence (5).
  GITP: Fusano (1).
  a-Ran for Boattin in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Menéndez in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Gamboa in the 7th.
  d-Walked for Caballero in the 9th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Celso ...............     8    5  19%    1    1    1    2    4    0   32    -
Gullickson (L, 0-2) .    14   13  48%    4    4    3    3    3    1   51  2-0
Kirks ...............    12    9  33%    1    2    2    3    2    1   44  1-0

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Faríñez (W, 7-1) ....    16   15  56%    0    0    0    3    1    0   59    -
Forrest .............     4    2   7%    2    4    4    0    1    1   17  2-1
Zahary (F, 10) ......    10   10  37%    1    0    0    2    6    0   35  1-0

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Celso (Outs 1-5) → Gullickson (Outs 6-18) → Kirks (Outs 19-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corozo (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Faríñez (Outs 1-15) → Forrest (Outs 16-17) → Zahary (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cantey (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Torrero (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Menéndez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Boattin (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  Seconds: CIN o26 (4-7).
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 91°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 649385.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O3)
  Walk-Back runs: off Gullickson 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 4 Jewison Menéndez Tracy Fusano (2B) 0–1
B 10 Samuel Giannou Tony Caballero (3B) 0–2
B 10 Samuel Giannou Sean Spence (1B) 0–3
B 10 Samuel Giannou Samuel Giannou (HR) 0–4
B 10 Tony Caballero Samuel Giannou (3B) 0–5
B 26 Sean Spence Oliver Cantey (1B) 0–6
B 26 Sean Spence Sean Spence (HR) 0–7
T 15 Bret David Carter Suarez (3B) 1–7
T 16 Agustin Cox Emmanuel Murakami (2B) 2–7
T 16 Agustin Cox Agustin Cox (1B) 3–7
T 16 Agustin Cox Agustin Cox (—) 4–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Reds — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Ed Tsoubanos — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Thomas Gayton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Orlando Núñez — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -5° · 67 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -3° · 70 ft Henri Dawkins — single · EV 79 mph · LA +5° · 75 ft Agustin Cox — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +32° · 352 ft Carter Suarez — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +4° · 65 ft Robert Lo Celso — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +6° · 76 ft Marco Corozo — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA +24° · 112 ft Bret David — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +47° · 276 ft Robert Lo Celso — single · EV 78 mph · LA +16° · 132 ft Marco Corozo — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +56° · 369 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 2 HR
279' 373' 278' Jewison Menéndez — single · EV 85 mph · LA +6° · 81 ft Tracy Fusano — triple_play · EV 87 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Samuel Giannou — hr · EV 99 mph · LA +32° · 351 ft Tony Caballero — double · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 290 ft Manuel Gamboa — single · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 83 ft Oliver Cantey — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 198 ft Bruno Cooper — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 84 ft Tracy Fusano — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 99 ft Haxzel Faríñez — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA -5° · 94 ft Sean Spence — hr · EV 94 mph · LA +34° · 329 ft Elias Torrero — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Edwin Gayton — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -23° · 91 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
28% deserve-to-win  ·  4.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Agustin Cox 99 / +32° Oppo Home Run 1.4 → 4 +2.57
Marco Corozo 100 / +56° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Henri Dawkins 79 / +5° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Bret David 83 / +47° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Ed Tsoubanos 76 / +14° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Stars
72% deserve-to-win  ·  7.8 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 8.6 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+4.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sean Spence 94 / +34° Oppo Home Run 0.9 → 4 +3.08
Samuel Giannou 99 / +32° Center Home Run 1.1 → 4 +2.92
Oliver Cantey 100 / +15° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Jewison Menéndez 85 / +6° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Sean Spence 88 / -1° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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