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Beavers 12, Orioles 4                                        2026-06-24 · #887
at Rudy Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Portland               12      -   12   10    0
Baltimore               4      0    4    5    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vahaly      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Villarreal  2b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Clement     lf ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.667
Hydrick     c  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   1   2   2   0   0  0.333
Rabess      rf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Okey    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Guerra      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   1  0.333
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Wolfe   pr ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Streko      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Laprovíttol p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Martín  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Tessema pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Zamora  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Xue     pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30  12  10   4   0   0  10  10  13   0   1  0.333
  2B: Wolfe (5), Clement (8), Hydrick (2), Velazquez (3).
  CS: Guerra (7), Okey (1).
  a-Ran for Rabess in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Holzworth in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Laprovíttola in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Okey in the 5th.
  e-Walked in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Zamora in the 5th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Roy         p  ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
Kautz       c  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Ison        2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Flowers     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Maloney ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Barba       ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   2   0   0  0.000
Mateer      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Melch       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Stokke  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Purchase    rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   4   5   2   0   0   3   4  13   0   0  0.172
  2B: Roy (2), Kautz (16).
  CS: Stokke (2).
  HBP: Ison (2).
  GIDP: Samudio (2).
  a-Batted for Flowers in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Melch in the 4th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Laprovíttola (W, 1-0)     25   20  74%    3    4    4    4    8    0   92    -
Takeda ..............     9    7  26%    2    0    0    0    5    0   34    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Roy (L, 8-5) ........    14   10  37%    4    4    4    2    4    0   48    -
Barella .............     5    2   7%    2    3    3    2    1    0   18  1-0
Campos ..............    11    7  26%    3    4    4    3    3    0   34  1-1
Luqueño .............    10    7  26%    1    1    1    3    5    0   39  1-1

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Laprovíttola (Outs 1-20) → Takeda (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Villarreal (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Streko (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Roy (Outs 1-10) → Barella (Outs 11-12) → Campos (Outs 13-19) → Luqueño (Outs 20-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Barba (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Melch (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Purchase (Outs 1-26)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Beavers batted second.
  Seconds: POR o26 (12-4), BAL o26 (4-0).
  First pitch 5:45 PM ET. Weather: 76°F · Wind cross · Clear · Dry. seed 784590.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Zamora NF
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Korey Flowers Alastair Roy (2B) 0–1
B 9 Kreigh Mateer Rónald Samudio (2B) 0–2
B 13 Rill Kautz Ulises Barba (3B) 0–3
B 16 Maciek Stokke Rill Kautz (3B) 0–4
T 3 Yadier Guerra Holcombe Hydrick (2B) 1–4
T 9 Beals Villarreal Nicolas Martín (3B) 2–4
T 10 Kyle Rabess Xzavier Wolfe (3B) 3–4
T 10 Kyle Rabess Beals Villarreal (2B) 4–4
T 12 Wilmer Velazquez Val Clement (3B) 5–4
T 12 Wilmer Velazquez Hua Xue (2B) 6–4
T 12 Wilmer Velazquez Hua Xue (2B) 7–4
T 13 Yadier Guerra Wilmer Velazquez (3B) 8–4
T 14 Beals Villarreal Val Clement (3B) 9–4
T 18 Val Clement Xzavier Wolfe (2B) 10–4
T 19 Holcombe Hydrick Val Clement (1B) 11–4
T 21 Beals Villarreal Holcombe Hydrick (3B) 12–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Beavers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Kyle Rabess — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +1° · 84 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 86 mph · LA -7° · 82 ft Beals Villarreal — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Roberto Laprovíttola — single · EV 87 mph · LA +1° · 83 ft Wilmer Velazquez — double · EV 119 mph · LA +16° · 295 ft Xzavier Wolfe — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 227 ft Nicolas Martín — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +26° · 217 ft Bonsa Tessema — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Roberto Laprovíttola — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 135 ft Mekhi Streko — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +1° · 78 ft Beals Villarreal — single · EV 79 mph · LA +3° · 75 ft Kyle Rabess — single · EV 98 mph · LA +3° · 93 ft Val Clement — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 137 ft Beals Villarreal — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -16° · 84 ft Val Clement — single · EV 80 mph · LA -21° · 76 ft Holcombe Hydrick — double · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 325 ft Beals Villarreal — single · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Alastair Roy — double · EV 80 mph · LA +38° · 250 ft Rill Kautz — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -6° · 74 ft Korey Flowers — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Andre Melch — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +23° · 180 ft Rónald Samudio — double_play · EV 62 mph · LA +3° · 59 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -1° · 50 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -3° · 78 ft Alan Maloney — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 154 ft Jason Adams — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +36° · 243 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 77 mph · LA +13° · 104 ft Kreigh Mateer — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Korey Flowers — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -0° · 54 ft Rill Kautz — double · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 264 ft Alan Maloney — single · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 160 ft Alastair Roy — single · EV 79 mph · LA +10° · 89 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
92% deserve-to-win  ·  9.3 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +2.7 vs expected
contact: 11.7 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+2.3 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Roberto Laprovíttola 100 / +10° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Val Clement 100 / +10° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.75
Beals Villarreal 79 / +3° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Roberto Laprovíttola 87 / +1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Yadier Guerra 86 / -7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Orioles
8% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.3 vs expected
contact: 5.6 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+1.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alastair Roy 80 / +38° Center Double 0.4 → 2 +1.56
Rill Kautz 92 / +26° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Alan Maloney 86 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Andre Melch 79 / +23° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Rónald Samudio 77 / +13° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
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