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Brewers 4, Reds 3                                            2026-06-24 · #890
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               4    4    4    1
Cincinnati              3    3    4    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Trejo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Espinoza    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Flowers     p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Struthe ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Edwards     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Williams    1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Ishida  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Gentry      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Irving  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Bangoura    rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sakurai     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Prather pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Ayers       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  19   4   4   3   0   0   4   2   4   0   0  0.211
  2B: Irving (35), Williams (19), Struthers (5).
  E: Flowers (1).
  a-Doubled for Flowers in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Williams in the 6th.
  c-Doubled for Gentry in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Irving in the 5th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tsoubanos   lf ......    3   0   2   2   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Subhash     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dilworth    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Ribera      rf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Corozo  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    3b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dawkins     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Foxworth    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  b-David   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   3   4   4   0   0   3   1  14   0   0  0.133
  2B: Tsoubanos 2 (9), Gayton (8), Ribera (9).
  a-Struck out for Ribera in the 9th.
  b-Batted for Foxworth in the 8th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Flowers (W, 16-2) ...    31   27 100%    4    3    3    1   14    0  119    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Foxworth (L, 12-8) ..    19   16  59%    4    4    4    2    4    0   69    -

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sakurai (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Williams (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bangoura (Outs 1-27)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-16)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Foxworth (Outs 1-16)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-16)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Subhash (Outs 1-16)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-16)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-16)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Dawkins (Outs 1-16)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-16)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-16)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ribera (Outs 1-16)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted first; Brewers batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Dry. seed 50923.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.75
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 11 Felix Ribera Emmanuel Murakami (1B) 0–1 —
B 11 Thomas Gayton Felix Ribera (2B) 0–2 —
B 14 Ed Tsoubanos Thomas Gayton (3B) 0–3 —
T 11 Francis Trejo Alphonzo Flowers (3B) 1–3 0.56
T 15 Jesse Williams Cannon Prather (2B) 2–3 0.50
T 16 Kyron Struthers Toshihiro Ishida (2B) 3–3 0.27
T 16 Donni Eggleston Kyron Struthers (2B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.75
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Brewers — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Andres Espinoza — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +26° · 203 ft Noel Gentry — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +15° · 122 ft Takuto Sakurai — fly_out · EV 73 mph · LA +32° · 189 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Clifford Irving — double · EV 119 mph · LA +21° · 378 ft Terry Ayers — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +25° · 200 ft Kyron Struthers — double · EV 89 mph · LA +37° · 304 ft Donni Eggleston — single · EV 98 mph · LA +23° · 279 ft Johan Bangoura — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -1° · 84 ft Andres Espinoza — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +60° · 307 ft Jesse Williams — double · EV 99 mph · LA +34° · 367 ft Daniel Edwards — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -4° · 54 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 0 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 102 mph · LA +28° · 344 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -0° · 81 ft Emmanuel Murakami — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +19° · 226 ft Emmanuel Murakami — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA +5° · 67 ft Felix Ribera — double · EV 117 mph · LA +23° · 390 ft Thomas Gayton — double · EV 88 mph · LA +43° · 309 ft Blaise Dilworth — line_out · EV 73 mph · LA +11° · 78 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -12° · 75 ft Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 204 ft Henri Dawkins — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +15° · 134 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +3° · 79 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +7° · 83 ft Felix Ribera — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +20° · 175 ft Emmanuel Murakami — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +4° · 79 ft Henri Dawkins — error · EV 100 mph · LA -0° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
47% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 8.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kyron Struthers 89 / +37° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Jesse Williams 99 / +34° Pull Double 1.5 → 2 +0.55
Andres Espinoza 94 / +60° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.52
Noel Gentry 79 / +15° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Francis Trejo 78 / +10° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Reds
53% deserve-to-win  ·  4.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 10.5 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-2.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Emmanuel Murakami 95 / +19° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Thomas Gayton 88 / +43° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.82
Ed Tsoubanos 100 / +15° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Ed Tsoubanos 102 / +28° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Felix Ribera 83 / +20° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
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