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Reds 5, Canaries 4  (2 SI)                                   2026-06-27 · #920
at Pino Stadium
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                        1      S    R    H    E
New Jersey              4      0    4    7    0
Cincinnati              4      1    5    6    1

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kerr        rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ali         ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Hlavack pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Brickhandle 1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Haliburton  p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Cordero     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Braun   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    c  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tejeda      lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.333
Rushing     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kramer  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  1.000
  d-Granber ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Hollenb pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Barron  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Susman      j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Woodall     j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32   4   7   3   0   0   3   6   9   1   1  0.219
  2B: Haliburton (4), Fishbach (18), Kramer (30).
  CS: Brickhandler (12), Haliburton (2), Fishbach (2), Braun (9), Hlavacka (10).
  Squeeze: Tejeda (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Ali in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Cordero in the 5th.
  c-Batted in the 4th.
  d-Batted in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 8th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Núñez       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-David   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pittman     lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Subhash     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Aguilar     p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    1b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Dilworth    c  ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Dawkins     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   rf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Cox     pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Villalo ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Lyman   pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Taupaki     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Patrick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  36   5   6   3   0   0   5   5  17   0   0  0.167
  2B: Dilworth (8), Tsoubanos (10), Villalobos (1).
  SB: Murakami (10).
  E: Núñez (5).
  GIDP: Gayton (5).
  a-Batted for Núñez in the 5th.
  b-Ran in the 5th.
  c-Batted in the 6th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Haliburton (L, 7-3) .    39   31 115%    5    5    5    5   17    0  137    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Aguilar (W, 9-5) ....    38   33 122%    7    4    1    6    9    0  137    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-31)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Haliburton (Outs 1-31)
CATCHER (C)       | Fishbach (Outs 1-31)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-31)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cordero (Outs 1-31)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-31)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ali (Outs 1-31)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-31)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Rushing (Outs 1-31)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-31)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-33)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Aguilar (Outs 1-33)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-33)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-33)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Núñez (Outs 1-33)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Dawkins (Outs 1-33)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-33)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Pittman (Outs 1-33)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-33)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-33)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  Super-innings: 2.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 93°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 228218.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O4)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 13 Jam Brickhandler Gianluca Braun (3B) 1–0
T 17 Leonardo Tejeda Tripp Hollenbeck (3B) 2–0
T 18 Andrea Kramer Percy Susman (3B) 3–0
T 22 Jerome Kerr Jesse Woodall (3B) 4–0
B 6 Ed Tsoubanos Emmanuel Murakami (3B) 4–1
B 15 Shelby Warwick Agustin Cox (3B) 4–2
B 20 Norris Taupaki Carr Lyman (2B) 4–3
B 25 Carr Lyman Thomas Gayton (2B) 4–4
SB 31 Devron Villalobos Agustin Cox (1B) 4–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Canaries — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +25° · 223 ft Rodmond Ali — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +32° · 344 ft Jam Brickhandler — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +27° · 239 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +6° · 90 ft Roberto Lacava — fielders_choice · EV 62 mph · LA -5° · 59 ft Andrea Kramer — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +35° · 244 ft Keshav Haliburton — double · EV 90 mph · LA +38° · 312 ft Jesse Woodall — error · EV 62 mph · LA -7° · 59 ft Gianluca Braun — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +2° · 49 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -9° · 49 ft Percy Susman — single · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 125 ft Brandon Barron — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +18° · 110 ft Jayden Rushing — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 141 ft Leonardo Tejeda — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -9° · 49 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +10° · 78 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 80 mph · LA +11° · 95 ft Jam Brickhandler — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +37° · 286 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 76 mph · LA +41° · 227 ft Jerome Kerr — error · EV 64 mph · LA +6° · 61 ft Leonardo Tejeda — single · EV 55 mph · LA +20° · 81 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 177 ft Deylin Fishbach — double · EV 102 mph · LA +20° · 264 ft Jerome Kerr — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 314 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Blaise Dilworth — double · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 290 ft Henri Dawkins — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 273 ft Ed Tsoubanos — double · EV 92 mph · LA +45° · 339 ft Shelby Warwick — single · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 118 ft Norris Taupaki — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Carr Lyman — single · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Ed Tsoubanos — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Henri Dawkins — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Blaise Dilworth — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Thomas Gayton — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -7° · 87 ft Devron Villalobos — double · EV 102 mph · LA +18° · 246 ft Thomas Gayton — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +3° · 59 ft Henri Dawkins — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 174 ft Blaise Dilworth — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
68% deserve-to-win  ·  6.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -2.4 vs expected
contact: 12.1 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-3.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jerome Kerr 100 / +26° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.34
Rodmond Ali 98 / +32° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.08
Keshav Haliburton 90 / +38° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.08
Andrea Kramer 76 / +41° Pull Stay 0.1 → 1 +0.86
Deylin Fishbach 102 / +20° Pull Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
Reds
32% deserve-to-win  ·  4.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Blaise Dilworth 92 / +29° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Carr Lyman 52 / -14° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Ed Tsoubanos 92 / +45° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.88
Henri Dawkins 92 / +27° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Devron Villalobos 102 / +18° Oppo Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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