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Rockies 29, Beavers 3                                        2026-06-30 · #949
at The Oval
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Colorado               29      0   29   27    0
Portland                3      0    3    3    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goss        lf ......    5   5   4   2   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.800
Diatta      rf ......    6   4   3   2   0   1   6   0   2   0   0  0.500
Touchard    c  ......    6   1   3   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.500
Porteño     2b ......    6   2   2   2   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Ruidíaz     3b ......    5   2   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.400
Alderman    cf ......    6   2   3   0   1   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
Holzworth   p  ......    5   4   3   1   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.600
Chaves      1b ......    4   5   2   1   0   1   3   2   1   0   0  0.500
Martinho    ss ......    2   1   2   1   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Lewis   ph ......    4   3   3   2   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.750
Totals                  49  29  27  11   1   5  26   5   9   0   0  0.551
  2B: Goss 2 (27), Diatta 2 (28), Porteño 2 (8), Holzworth (9), Chaves (18), Martinho (38), Lewis 2 (34).
  3B: Alderman (3).
  HR: Goss (8), off Reyes; Diatta (16), off Reyes; Holzworth (2), off Giammalva; Chaves (10), off Kagawa; Martinho (18), off Moulton.
  SB: Chaves (8).
  CS: Touchard (4).
  a-Batted in the 4th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Aktaş       3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Moulton     p  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Vahaly      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Turenne     lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Waston  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Guerra      rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Streko      cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Okey    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Clement ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   3   0   0   0   2   2  14   0   0  0.107
  HBP: Tessema (4), Guerra (1).
  GIDP: Aktaş 2 (3).
  a-Ran for Hydrick in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Streko in the 8th.
  c-Struck out in the 6th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Holzworth (W, 9-1) ..    14   14  52%    0    0    0    0   10    0   48    -
Schramm .............    15   11  41%    2    1    1    2    2    0   55    -
Ribas ...............     2    2   7%    0    2    2    0    2    0   11  3-2

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Moulton (L, 2-3) ....    15    7  26%    9    7    7    2    1    1   66    -
Giammalva ...........    14    9  33%    6    6    5    0    2    1   56  1-0
Reyes ...............    12    5  19%    6    9    7    1    2    2   46  1-1
Kagawa ..............    13    6  22%    6    7    6    2    4    1   46  1-1

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Holzworth (Outs 1-14) → Schramm (Outs 15-25) → Ribas (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Touchard (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Chaves (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Porteño (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Alderman (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Diatta (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Moulton (Outs 1-7) → Giammalva (Outs 8-16) → Reyes (Outs 17-21) → Kagawa (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Turenne (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Streko (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Guerra (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Rockies batted first.
  Seconds: COL o23 (29-0), POR o25 (3-29).
  First pitch 2:10 PM PT. Weather: 69°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 898223.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Clement NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Giammalva 1, off Reyes 2, off Kagawa 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 3.33    Peak faced 18.00
    27 outs left: 3.33
    18 outs left: 5.00
     9 outs left: 10.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 0 John Diatta Ahkhari Goss (2B) 1–0 —
T 0 Jahmari Touchard John Diatta (2B) 2–0 —
T 1 Allen Alderman Mario Porteño (2B) 3–0 —
T 1 Allen Alderman Marco Ruidíaz (1B) 4–0 —
T 2 Jeyland Chaves Allen Alderman (3B) 5–0 —
T 2 Markeylin Martinho Jeyland Chaves (2B) 6–0 —
T 3 Markeylin Martinho Markeylin Martinho (HR) 7–0 —
T 5 Corey Holzworth Corey Holzworth (HR) 8–0 —
T 5 Allen Alderman Corey Holzworth (3B) 9–0 —
T 9 Ahkhari Goss Allen Alderman (3B) 10–0 —
T 10 Jeyland Chaves Ahkhari Goss (1B) 11–0 —
T 10 Corey Holzworth Jeyland Chaves (2B) 12–0 —
T 11 Marco Ruidíaz Corey Holzworth (3B) 13–0 —
T 12 John Diatta Marco Ruidíaz (2B) 14–0 —
T 12 John Diatta Jahmari Touchard (1B) 15–0 —
T 12 John Diatta John Diatta (HR) 16–0 —
T 13 Ahkhari Goss John Diatta (3B) 17–0 —
T 13 Ahkhari Goss Ahkhari Goss (HR) 18–0 —
T 13 John Diatta Ahkhari Goss (3B) 19–0 —
T 14 Mario Porteño John Diatta (2B) 20–0 —
T 17 Thomas Lewis Mario Porteño (2B) 21–0 —
T 17 Thomas Lewis Jeyland Chaves (1B) 22–0 —
T 17 John Diatta Thomas Lewis (3B) 23–0 —
T 19 Mario Porteño Ahkhari Goss (3B) 24–0 —
T 23 Thomas Lewis Corey Holzworth (1B) 25–0 —
T 23 Thomas Lewis Thomas Lewis (2B) 26–0 —
T 23 Jeyland Chaves Thomas Lewis (1B) 27–0 —
T 23 Jeyland Chaves Jeyland Chaves (HR) 28–0 —
T 23 Allen Alderman Jeyland Chaves (3B) 29–0 —
B 22 Mekhi Streko Levar De Turenne (3B) 29–1 17.40
B 23 Derek Moulton Agustín Waston (3B) 29–2 21.00
B 23 Rhyne Okey Aaron Holzworth (3B) 29–3 20.25
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 3.33
Peak faced 18.00
27 outs left 3.33
18 outs left 5.00
9 outs left 10.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Rockies — Batted Balls
36 BIP· 10 1B · 12 XBH · 5 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Ahkhari Goss — double · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 247 ft John Diatta — double · EV 97 mph · LA +11° · 141 ft Jahmari Touchard — single · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 174 ft Mario Porteño — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 272 ft Allen Alderman — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 265 ft Markeylin Martinho — double · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft Jeyland Chaves — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +27° · 247 ft Marco Ruidíaz — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Thomas Lewis — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 395 ft Markeylin Martinho — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Corey Holzworth — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +48° · 398 ft Allen Alderman — single · EV 88 mph · LA -0° · 84 ft Ahkhari Goss — single · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 370 ft Jeyland Chaves — double · EV 100 mph · LA +37° · 384 ft Marco Ruidíaz — single · EV 84 mph · LA -8° · 80 ft Thomas Lewis — double · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 358 ft Corey Holzworth — double · EV 99 mph · LA +16° · 213 ft Allen Alderman — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Mario Porteño — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +27° · 249 ft Jahmari Touchard — single · EV 100 mph · LA +3° · 95 ft John Diatta — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +47° · 476 ft Thomas Lewis — double · EV 112 mph · LA +22° · 349 ft Ahkhari Goss — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +32° · 358 ft John Diatta — double · EV 100 mph · LA +11° · 145 ft Mario Porteño — double · EV 119 mph · LA +25° · 433 ft Allen Alderman — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Corey Holzworth — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 389 ft Marco Ruidíaz — single · EV 100 mph · LA -23° · 95 ft Thomas Lewis — single · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 121 ft Jeyland Chaves — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +48° · 480 ft John Diatta — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Corey Holzworth — single · EV 85 mph · LA -18° · 81 ft Ahkhari Goss — double · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 319 ft Allen Alderman — single · EV 91 mph · LA -13° · 86 ft Mario Porteño — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +23° · 193 ft Jahmari Touchard — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Holcombe Hydrick — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +21° · 118 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 90 mph · LA +16° · 168 ft Bonsa Tessema — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +42° · 195 ft Holcombe Hydrick — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +28° · 233 ft Yadier Guerra — line_out · EV 85 mph · LA +12° · 119 ft Dawood Aktaş — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +9° · 113 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +3° · 63 ft Mekhi Streko — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -22° · 72 ft Derek Moulton — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +2° · 66 ft Levar De Turenne — fielders_choice · EV 66 mph · LA -27° · 63 ft Holcombe Hydrick — single · EV 86 mph · LA +13° · 125 ft Dawood Aktaş — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -2° · 67 ft Mekhi Streko — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
98% deserve-to-win  ·  21.3 expected runs
actual 29 runs  ·  +7.7 vs expected
contact: 43.3 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 55.0 (+11.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Corey Holzworth 100 / +48° Pull Home Run 0.9 → 4 +3.11
Jeyland Chaves 119 / +48° Oppo Home Run 1.0 → 4 +2.98
Ahkhari Goss 100 / +32° Pull Home Run 1.3 → 4 +2.67
Thomas Lewis 100 / +40° Pull Out 2.6 → 0 -2.59
Corey Holzworth 100 / +38° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Beavers
2% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-3.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dawood Aktaş 97 / +9° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Dawood Aktaş 90 / +16° Oppo Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Mekhi Streko 76 / -2° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Yadier Guerra 85 / +12° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Holcombe Hydrick 67 / +21° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.42
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