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Auckland Tailors 14, Melbourne Baseball Club 10              2046-04-22 · #970
at Siadi Grounds
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Auckland               14      -   14   11    0
Melbourne              10      0   10    7    2

AUCKLAND TAILORS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Dellavedova lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rangi       cf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Petratos    2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Tolo    pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Vicelich    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Brock   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Rauf        rf ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
White       3b ......    3   3   0   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.000
Rangi       c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Rogers  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Jackson     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   1  0.000
  d-Sutherl pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Brockie c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Chapman ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Young   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Quiñone pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Pledger pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Reath       j  ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Rivera      j  ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  36  14  11   2   0   0  13   5  15   0   1  0.306
  2B: Rangi (6), Reath (9).
  HBP: Rivera (1).
  a-Ran for Petratos in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Vicelich in the 6th.
  c-Singled for Rangi in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Rogers in the 8th.
  e-Entered at C in the 7th.
  f-Singled for Brockie in the 7th.
  g-Singled for Rivera in the 7th.
  h-Ran for Chapman in the 7th.
  i-Ran for Young in the 7th.

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Baccus      cf ......    3   2   2   0   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.667
Reed        1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Buchanon    lf ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mabil       rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Lopez       2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Frank       3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Taylor      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Rios    pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Longley ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Irvine  pr ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  d-Tolo    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Rogers  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Feliz   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
King        j  ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Gurriel     j  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Talbot      j  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.333
Totals                  32  10   7   1   0   1  10   8  13   0   0  0.219
  2B: King (5).
  HR: Baccus (1), off Taylor.
  SB: Talbot (2).
  E: Gurriel (2), Lopez (1).
  HBP: Gurriel (2).
  GIDP: Mabil (3), Frank (1).
  a-Ran for Taylor in the 3rd.
  b-Batted in the 2nd.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.
  d-Walked in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Tolo in the 3rd.

AUCKLAND TAILORS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Jackson .............    14    9  33%    2    2    2    4    3    0   61    -
Bowen ...............     4    0   0%    2    2    2    1    0    0   10  2-1
Delany ..............     5    6  22%    0    2    2    1    2    0   12  3-2
Taylor ..............     9    6  22%    2    4    2    1    2    1   31    -
Rodriguez (W, 1-0) ..     7    6  22%    0    0    0    1    6    0   34  2-0

MELBOURNE BASEBALL CLUB PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Taylor (L, 0-2) .....    12    8  30%    3    3    3    1    4    0   44    -
Wilkinson ...........    10    6  22%    1    3    3    1    4    0   43  2-2
Bunge ...............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    1    1    0   11  2-1
George ..............     4    2   7%    2    2    2    0    2    0   16  3-1
Olla ................     4    3  11%    2    2    2    0    1    0   14  3-1
Coronado ............     8    5  19%    1    2    2    2    3    0   39  2-1

  Batting order: Melbourne Baseball Club (home) batted first; Auckland Tailors batted second.
  Seconds: AT o26 (14-10), MBC o26 (10-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM VLAT. Weather: 65°F · Wind out · Clear · Dry. seed 844980.
  Powerplays: Auckland Tailors — Pledger NF (O6)
  Walk-Back runs: off Taylor 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 7 Ryan Tolo Brad Irvine (3B) 0–1
B 7 Daniel Taylor Hilton Talbot (3B) 0–2
B 8 Cameron Baccus Starlin Feliz (3B) 0–3
B 8 Brad Irvine Pat King (2B) 0–4
B 9 Garang Mabil Rafael Rios (3B) 0–5
B 12 Kingi Frank Yunieski Gurriel (3B) 0–6
B 16 Cameron Baccus Rafael Rios (1B) 0–7
B 16 Cameron Baccus Cameron Baccus (HR) 0–8
B 16 Pat King Cameron Baccus (3B) 0–9
B 20 Beau Rogers Francois Buchanon (2B) 0–10
T 5 Shea Rangi Colin Rangi (3B) 1–10
T 6 Bruno Reath Martin White (3B) 2–10
T 8 Colin Rangi Bruno Reath (3B) 3–10
T 11 Martin White Joe Rivera (3B) 4–10
T 11 Shea Rangi Adeel Rauf (2B) 5–10
T 14 Martin White Colin Rangi (3B) 6–10
T 14 Adeel Rauf Martin White (3B) 7–10
T 16 Brendon Petratos Martin White (3B) 8–10
T 16 Bruno Reath Adeel Rauf (3B) 9–10
T 18 Nathan Chapman Joe Brock (3B) 10–10
T 20 Ajdin Rogers Bruno Reath (3B) 11–10
T 20 Ajdin Rogers Joe Rivera (2B) 12–10
T 23 Joe Brock Jeet Pledger (3B) 13–10
T 23 Joshua Tolo Ruairidh Sutherland (3B) 14–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Siadi Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 415' · RF 378' · 13' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Trolley Shed Round Bowl
Auckland Tailors — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 9 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
386' 415' 378' Colin Rangi — double · EV 93 mph · LA +23° · 247 ft Brendon Petratos — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Liam Dellavedova — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Bruno Reath — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Martin White — error · EV 92 mph · LA +10° · 111 ft Nathan Chapman — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 73 ft Alex Young — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 114 ft Ajdin Rogers — single · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Joshua Tolo — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 161 ft Colin Rangi — single · EV 94 mph · LA +10° · 124 ft Hira Vicelich — line_out · EV 87 mph · LA +21° · 200 ft Adeel Rauf — single · EV 89 mph · LA +19° · 192 ft Shea Rangi — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -10° · 87 ft Martin White — error · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 145 ft Bruno Reath — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Joe Rivera — fielders_choice · EV 63 mph · LA -4° · 60 ft Adeel Rauf — single · EV 102 mph · LA +12° · 172 ft Hira Vicelich — single · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 73 ft
Melbourne Baseball Club — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
386' 415' 378' Yunieski Gurriel — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +10° · 113 ft Francois Buchanon — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA +11° · 132 ft Daniel Taylor — single · EV 84 mph · LA -15° · 80 ft Brad Irvine — single · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 249 ft Beau Rogers — error · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 74 ft Cameron Baccus — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -21° · 64 ft Garang Mabil — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA -12° · 77 ft Kingi Frank — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +0° · 65 ft Pat King — double · EV 97 mph · LA +22° · 264 ft Cameron Baccus — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +28° · 411 ft Francois Buchanon — fielders_choice · EV 75 mph · LA -9° · 71 ft Mustafa Longley — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +29° · 205 ft Brad Irvine — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 106 ft Francois Buchanon — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 326 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Auckland Tailors
49% deserve-to-win  ·  7.7 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  +6.3 vs expected
contact: 12.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+0.9 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Colin Rangi 93 / +23° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.99
Bruno Reath 92 / +34° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Martin White 92 / +10° Oppo Reached on Error 0.9 → 0 -0.85
Martin White 92 / +13° Oppo Reached on Error 0.9 → 0 -0.85
Ajdin Rogers 76 / -4° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.71
Melbourne Baseball Club
51% deserve-to-win  ·  7.8 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +2.2 vs expected
contact: 9.8 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+0.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cameron Baccus 112 / +28° Center Home Run 2.4 → 4 +1.64
Francois Buchanon 92 / +37° Oppo Out 1.0 → 0 -1.03
Yunieski Gurriel 89 / +10° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.85
Francois Buchanon 93 / +11° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.85
Cameron Baccus 68 / -21° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
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