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Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd 16, BHP Wolves 9    2046-04-22 · #972
at Same Field
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Brisbane                9      0    9   12    0
Wellington             16      0   16   12    0

BHP WOLVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Calhoun     lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0  0.333
Vukovic     ss ......    4   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Gregorius   c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0  0.250
Murphy      1b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Boyens      3b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Wilkinson   cf ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.500
Duncan      rf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   1   2   2   0  0.667
Gliddon     2b ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   1   0  0.000
King        p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   2  0.000
Hassett     j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   .000
Neill       j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   9  12   2   0   0   8   9   4   5   2  0.429
  2B: Vukovic (7), Neill (8).
  CS: Neill (3).
  HBP: Boyens (1).


WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mitchell    1b ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Scott   3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mitchell    cf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Ban         lf ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Davidson    rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Catley      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Turner      2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Clarke      c  ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Manuel      ss ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.500
Spiranovic  p  ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.667
Hakala      j  ......    4   3   2   0   0   1   3   0   2   0   0  0.500
Moore       j  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  34  16  12   7   0   1  15   7  16   0   1  0.353
  2B: Mitchell (11), Mitchell (9), Ban (8), Moore (7), Turner (1), Manuel (1), Spiranovic (1).
  HR: Hakala (1), off King.
  HBP: Mitchell (2), Moore (3), Turner (2).
  a-Replaced Mitchell at 3B in the 7th.

BHP WOLVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
King ................    14   11  41%    2    3    2    2    7    1   53    -
Steinmetz ...........     6    2   7%    2    4    4    1    1    0   19  1-1
Christie (L, 1-1) ...    13    6  22%    5    7    7    3    4    0   55  1-1
McGowan .............    11    8  30%    3    2    2    1    4    0   33  1-0

WELLINGTON NORTHERN SHIPPING CO. PTY LTD PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Spiranovic (W, 1-0) .    18   12  44%    4    5    5    5    2    0   64    -
Latham ..............    14   10  37%    6    3    3    3    0    0   63  2-0
Kellond-Knight (F, 5)      5    5  19%    1    1    1    1    2    0   23  2-0

  Batting order: Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd (home) batted first; BHP Wolves batted second.
  Seconds: BW o24 (9-16), WNS o24 (16-0).
  First pitch 1:10 PM PETT. Weather: 75°F · Wind in · Clear. seed 581353.
  Walk-Back runs: off King 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Niko Hakala Niko Hakala (HR) 0–1
B 6 Jock Clarke Niko Hakala (3B) 0–2
B 7 Eugene Spiranovic Dong-gun Ban (3B) 0–3
B 9 Shane Mitchell Basilio Manuel (2B) 0–4
B 9 Dong-gun Ban Jarrod Mitchell (3B) 0–5
B 9 Dong-gun Ban Shane Mitchell (1B) 0–6
B 9 Garang Davidson Dong-gun Ban (2B) 0–7
B 14 Niko Hakala Hamish Moore (3B) 0–8
B 14 Niko Hakala Ricky Turner (2B) 0–9
B 14 Shane Mitchell Jarrod Mitchell (2B) 0–10
B 14 Shane Mitchell Niko Hakala (1B) 0–11
B 16 Hamish Moore Dong-gun Ban (2B) 0–12
B 16 Ricky Turner Garang Davidson (3B) 0–13
B 16 Ricky Turner Hamish Moore (2B) 0–14
B 17 Basilio Manuel Jock Clarke (1B) 0–15
B 17 Jarrod Mitchell Basilio Manuel (3B) 0–16
T 4 Nikita Gliddon Greg Murphy (3B) 1–16
T 4 Danny Neill Mihaka Boyens (3B) 2–16
T 4 Pita Hassett Ivan Wilkinson (3B) 3–16
T 4 Nikita King Nikita Gliddon (3B) 4–16
T 6 Cam Vukovic Danny Neill (3B) 5–16
T 16 Ivan Wilkinson Nikita Gliddon (2B) 6–16
T 16 Mihaka Boyens Tim Duncan (3B) 7–16
T 19 Fred Calhoun Ivan Wilkinson (3B) 8–16
T 23 Tim Duncan Fred Calhoun (3B) 9–16
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Same Field's actual outfield dimensions (LF 339' · CF 409' · RF 327' · 18' wall). Balanced.
Ivy Wall Scoreboard Clock
BHP Wolves — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 10 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
339' 409' 327' Wall 18' Fred Calhoun — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +29° · 230 ft Cam Vukovic — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +26° · 153 ft Nathan Gregorius — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 270 ft Greg Murphy — single · EV 84 mph · LA -2° · 80 ft Ivan Wilkinson — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +7° · 74 ft Nikita Gliddon — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Nikita King — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Danny Neill — double · EV 102 mph · LA +31° · 368 ft Cam Vukovic — double · EV 94 mph · LA +21° · 242 ft Nathan Gregorius — single · EV 56 mph · LA -4° · 53 ft Greg Murphy — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA +3° · 76 ft Nikita Gliddon — single · EV 90 mph · LA -1° · 86 ft Ivan Wilkinson — single · EV 77 mph · LA +6° · 74 ft Mihaka Boyens — infield_single · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Nikita Gliddon — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Tim Duncan — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Greg Murphy — single · EV 92 mph · LA +21° · 225 ft Nathan Gregorius — single · EV 68 mph · LA +13° · 85 ft Cam Vukovic — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +26° · 193 ft Fred Calhoun — error · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 118 ft Mihaka Boyens — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +0° · 57 ft Nathan Gregorius — fly_out · EV 90 mph · LA +55° · 305 ft Fred Calhoun — single · EV 88 mph · LA +15° · 156 ft Tim Duncan — single · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Cam Vukovic — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 122 ft Nathan Gregorius — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 87 ft
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 4 1B · 7 XBH · 1 HR
339' 409' 327' Wall 18' Niko Hakala — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +31° · 433 ft Hamish Moore — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +5° · 93 ft Garang Davidson — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -14° · 64 ft Dong-gun Ban — double · EV 96 mph · LA +26° · 293 ft Basilio Manuel — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 280 ft Allan Scott — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Shane Mitchell — single · EV 88 mph · LA +6° · 83 ft Garang Davidson — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -9° · 69 ft Dong-gun Ban — single · EV 94 mph · LA -2° · 90 ft Hamish Moore — double · EV 107 mph · LA +21° · 308 ft Ricky Turner — double · EV 98 mph · LA +33° · 350 ft Eugene Spiranovic — single · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 162 ft Jarrod Mitchell — double · EV 91 mph · LA +34° · 311 ft Niko Hakala — single · EV 79 mph · LA +16° · 135 ft Shane Mitchell — double · EV 102 mph · LA +11° · 159 ft Jock Clarke — fielders_choice · EV 71 mph · LA -6° · 67 ft Dong-gun Ban — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Eugene Spiranovic — double · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 320 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
BHP Wolves
47% deserve-to-win  ·  11.6 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -2.6 vs expected
contact: 11.8 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+1.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cam Vukovic 94 / +21° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Nathan Gregorius 56 / -4° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Mihaka Boyens 52 / +1° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.85
Nathan Gregorius 92 / +26° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.79
Tim Duncan 76 / +2° Pull Stay 0.3 → 1 +0.72
Wellington Northern Shipping Co. Pty Ltd
53% deserve-to-win  ·  12.3 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 15.5 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 22.0 (+6.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Niko Hakala 111 / +31° Pull Home Run 2.3 → 4 +1.66
Jarrod Mitchell 91 / +34° Center Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Eugene Spiranovic 92 / +36° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +0.97
Dong-gun Ban 96 / +26° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.83
Shane Mitchell 102 / +11° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.74
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