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Orioles 5, Astros 4                                          2026-07-04 · #989
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore               5    5    3    0
Houston                 4    4    6    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ison        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Stokke  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Abajian     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Foust       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Alison      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-López   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Flowers     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Michulk pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kagame      c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sigourney   2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dennis      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
Adams       j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  13   5   3   1   0   0   4   2   6   0   2  0.231
  2B: Adams (3).
  HBP: Ison (3), Samudio (2).
  a-Ran for Ison in the 4th.
  b-Struck out for Alison in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Flowers in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Kagame in the 4th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rivas       3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kingsbury   lf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Gómez   pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Hammerbeck  p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Maier       rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Thom        2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Daniels     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Arboled pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Wiesner     c  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   .000
Konig       cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Humphre pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Henríqu pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Morales ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Oliveira    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Trejo       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  25   4   6   1   0   0   3   7   7   0   0  0.240
  2B: Kingsbury (3).
  SB: Neely (1).
  GIDP: Maier (1), Gómez (6), Morales 2 (8).
  a-Ran for Kingsbury in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Daniels in the 5th.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 5th.
  e-Batted in the 5th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Dennis (W, 10-2) ....    21   16   88  4.2    6    3    3    3    4    0    -
Barella .............    11   11   53  4.8    0    1    1    4    3    0  2-1

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hammerbeck (L, 1-4) .    10    9   41  4.1    1    2    2    0    5    0    -
Basham ..............     4    3   14  3.5    0    2    2    2    1    0    -
Benguché ............     1    0    4  4.0    1    1    1    0    0    0  2-1

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-16) → Barella (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kagame (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Abajian (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Ison (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Samudio (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hammerbeck (Outs 1-9) → Basham (Outs 10-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Wiesner (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Daniels (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Thom (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Konig (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Maier (Outs 1-12)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted first; Orioles batted second.
  First pitch 4:05 PM CT. Weather: 86°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 973825.
  Powerplays: Orioles — Michulka NF (O5)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 0.71
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 8 Marcos Kingsbury Zane Wiesner (2B) 0–1 —
B 8 Marcos Kingsbury Korey Humphreys (1B) 0–2 —
B 16 Mayer Gómez Angel Henríquez (3B) 0–3 —
B 18 Quentin Maier Yasniel Arboleda (3B) 0–4 —
T 7 Brett Dennis Junior Kagame (3B) 1–4 0.60
T 8 Rónald Samudio Rónald Samudio (3B) 2–4 0.47
T 11 Sidney Foust Ulises Barba (3B) 3–4 0.38
T 11 Nate Abajian Geoff Michulka (3B) 4–4 0.19
T 12 Jason Adams Maciek Stokke (3B) 5–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 0.71
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Orioles — Batted Balls
4 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Junior Kagame — single · EV 100 mph · LA -26° · 95 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 173 ft Rónald Samudio — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +44° · 218 ft Jason Adams — double · EV 104 mph · LA +32° · 394 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Scoville Rivas — single · EV 86 mph · LA +14° · 135 ft Quentin Maier — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA +1° · 83 ft Van Neely — single · EV 95 mph · LA +0° · 91 ft Shawn Daniels — line_out · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 158 ft Cedrick Konig — single · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Jeyland Morales — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA +3° · 73 ft Mayer Gómez — single · EV 86 mph · LA +25° · 227 ft Yasniel Arboleda — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA +6° · 57 ft Marcos Kingsbury — double · EV 84 mph · LA +42° · 278 ft Zack Hammerbeck — single · EV 93 mph · LA +10° · 122 ft Quentin Maier — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +36° · 339 ft Iapani Thom — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +43° · 230 ft Van Neely — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 140 ft Jeyland Morales — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA +0° · 83 ft Mayer Gómez — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA -11° · 82 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +51° · 303 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -15° · 62 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
18% deserve-to-win  ·  3.1 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 4.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-1.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jason Adams 104 / +32° Pull Double 2.9 → 2 -0.90
Mackenzie Sigourney 92 / +15° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Junior Kagame 100 / -26° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.54
Rónald Samudio 74 / +44° Center Out 0.1 → 0 -0.14
Astros
82% deserve-to-win  ·  6.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -2.8 vs expected
contact: 7.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Kingsbury 84 / +42° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.33
Quentin Maier 94 / +36° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Cedrick Konig 76 / -7° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Mayer Gómez 86 / +25° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Shawn Daniels 81 / +19° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
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