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Canaries 4, Red Sox 3                                       2026-07-05 · #1006
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  3    3    2    0
New Jersey              4    4    6    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Bektas      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Merrill     lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Venegas     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Núñez       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Falby       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Kamara  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cameron     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Pezzell ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Saravia     1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Ospina      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Rowley  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Hodges  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Wolfe   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Miranda ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Cordano pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Inniss      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   2   1   0   0   3   6  10   0   0  0.077
  2B: Merrill (4).
  a-Walked for Falby in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Cameron in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Ospina in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 4th.
  f-Walked for Kamara in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Wolfe in the 7th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Morriso pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Campos      ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Braun       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Arnoux      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Hollenb pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Kerr    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Ali     ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   .000
Tejeda      lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Navarro     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gutierrez   c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Brickha pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Levells pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Cordero ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  h-Rushing pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   1   1   0   2   1   0  0.667
Totals                  22   4   6   1   0   1   4   6   8   1   0  0.273
  2B: Kramer (34).
  HR: Woodall (1), off Root.
  SB: Campos 2 (2).
  CS: Tejeda (5), Navarro (1).
  HBP: Ali (7).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Arnoux in the 8th.
  c-Walked for Fishbach in the 4th.
  d-Was hit by a pitch for Lacava in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Gutierrez in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Kerr in the 4th.
  g-Batted in the 5th.
  h-Ran in the 5th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ospina (L, 3-3) .....    14   10  37%    2    2    2    5    1    0   54    -
Root ................    15   16  59%    4    2    2    1    8    1   60  3-1

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Arnoux (W, 10-2) ....    30   25  93%    2    3    3    6   10    0  104    -
Baeza ...............     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    0    0    8  2-0

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ospina (Outs 1-10) → Root (Outs 11-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Bektas (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Saravia (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Venegas (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Falby (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Núñez (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-26)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Arnoux (Outs 1-25) → Baeza (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Gutierrez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Braun (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Red Sox batted first.
  First pitch 5:00 PM ET. Weather: 86°F · Wind in · Clear. seed 794460.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 1 Henri Merrill Manuel Suazo (1B) 1–0
T 4 Tony Cameron Henri Merrill (3B) 2–0
T 22 Kervin Venegas Vinicius Cordano (3B) 3–0
B 8 Gianluca Braun Jam Brickhandler (3B) 3–1
B 10 Rodmond Ali Hugo Campos (3B) 3–2
B 16 Hugo Campos Jake Levells (3B) 3–3
B 26 Jesse Woodall Jesse Woodall (HR) 3–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Red Sox — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Henri Merrill — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 142 ft Tony Cameron — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -5° · 74 ft Diego Saravia — fly_out · EV 94 mph · LA +33° · 319 ft Robert Ospina — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -3° · 67 ft Raymond Rowley — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft Teófilo Pezzella — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +14° · 183 ft Ivo Malard — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -5° · 95 ft Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -21° · 85 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 87 mph · LA +19° · 183 ft Henri Merrill — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +14° · 168 ft Phillip Bektas — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -3° · 68 ft Manuel Suazo — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA -21° · 67 ft Walter Núñez — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 139 ft Kervin Venegas — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -26° · 78 ft Raymond Rowley — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Kadin Arnoux — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +20° · 218 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 107 mph · LA +6° · 102 ft Leonardo Tejeda — single · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Jesse Woodall — error · EV 72 mph · LA +17° · 115 ft Ulises Morrison — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +21° · 203 ft Jake Levells — single · EV 83 mph · LA -4° · 79 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 184 ft Gianluca Braun — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -16° · 78 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 102 mph · LA +7° · 97 ft Jam Brickhandler — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +33° · 283 ft Jesse Woodall — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +28° · 442 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
48% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -3.9 vs expected
contact: 9.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-6.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Walter Núñez 100 / +10° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Teófilo Pezzella 98 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.11
Henri Merrill 96 / +14° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.11
Diego Saravia 94 / +33° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Henri Merrill 100 / +10° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.75
Canaries
52% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.2 vs expected
contact: 9.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+0.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jesse Woodall 116 / +28° Center Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.04
Jam Brickhandler 88 / +33° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Kadin Arnoux 93 / +20° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Andrea Kramer 100 / +14° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.75
Leonardo Tejeda 76 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
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