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Astros 4, Brewers 3                                         2026-07-06 · #1011
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               3    3    7    0
Houston                 4    4    7    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Espinoza    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Prather     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Trejo   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
Bangoura    rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Yani        lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sakurai     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Irving  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ishida      cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Flowers     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-William ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Edwards ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Nava        j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  1.000
Ayers       j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Eggleston   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   7   1   0   0   2   3  10   1   0  0.250
  2B: Kaplan (4).
  HBP: Nava (1).
  GIDP: Yani (5), Flowers (1).
  a-Struck out for Prather in the 9th.
  b-Batted for Saravia in the 4th.
  c-Singled for Eggleston in the 7th.
  d-Struck out for Nava in the 8th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gómez       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Edmonso pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Neely       ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Konig       cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Patridge    rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Morales     1b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Maier       lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Moros       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Daniels ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Carrington  p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Rivas   ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  1.000
  d-Kingsbu ph ......    2   1   2   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Henríqu pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Oliveira    j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   4   7   2   0   1   4   2  10   1   0  0.292
  2B: Rivas (11), Henríquez (5).
  HR: Kingsbury (1), off Flowers.
  CS: Maier (1).
  HBP: Morales (4).
  a-Ran for Gómez in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Moros in the 7th.
  c-Doubled for Carrington in the 8th.
  d-Batted in the 9th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Flowers (L, 17-3) ...    26   22  81%    7    4    4    2   10    1  100    -

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Carrington (W, 6-4) .    19   17  63%    4    0    0    1    5    0   60    -
Vildoza .............     7    4  15%    2    3    3    1    2    0   21  2-2
Schueck .............     6    6  22%    1    0    0    1    3    0   24  2-0

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-22)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Flowers (Outs 1-22)
CATCHER (C)       | Sakurai (Outs 1-22)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-22)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Prather (Outs 1-22)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-22)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-22)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Yani (Outs 1-22)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Ishida (Outs 1-22)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Bangoura (Outs 1-22)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Carrington (Outs 1-17) → Vildoza (Outs 18-21) → Schueck (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maier (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Konig (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Patridge (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 96°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 381321.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 21 Jesse Williams Graydon Yani (3B) 1–0
T 21 Percy Nava Terry Ayers (3B) 2–0
T 21 Percy Nava Toshihiro Ishida (3B) 3–0
B 20 Marcos Kingsbury Jeyland Morales (2B) 3–1
B 20 Marcos Kingsbury Quentin Maier (1B) 3–2
B 20 Marcos Kingsbury Marcos Kingsbury (HR) 3–3
B 21 Scoville Rivas Angel Henríquez (3B) 3–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Brewers — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
374' 430' 367' Andres Espinoza — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 113 ft Cannon Prather — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Steven Kaplan — double · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 365 ft Johan Bangoura — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Graydon Yani — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Takuto Sakurai — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +38° · 224 ft Toshihiro Ishida — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -26° · 87 ft Alphonzo Flowers — double_play · EV 57 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Clifford Irving — line_out · EV 63 mph · LA +14° · 74 ft Terry Ayers — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 96 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 61 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Toshihiro Ishida — single · EV 95 mph · LA -0° · 90 ft Johan Bangoura — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA +21° · 102 ft Cannon Prather — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 137 ft Clifford Irving — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +10° · 123 ft Percy Nava — infield_single · EV 69 mph · LA +7° · 65 ft Terry Ayers — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 174 ft Alphonzo Flowers — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Andres Espinoza — single · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
374' 430' 367' Van Neely — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 129 ft Alexis Edmonson — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +27° · 205 ft Marcos Kingsbury — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 154 ft Angel Henríquez — double · EV 106 mph · LA +17° · 255 ft Cedrick Konig — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -11° · 53 ft Van Neely — single · EV 79 mph · LA +12° · 102 ft Quentin Maier — fielders_choice · EV 68 mph · LA -8° · 64 ft Jeyland Morales — single · EV 83 mph · LA +21° · 184 ft Marcos Kingsbury — hr · EV 116 mph · LA +41° · 480 ft Alexis Edmonson — line_out · EV 71 mph · LA +10° · 70 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 85 mph · LA +19° · 176 ft Quentin Maier — single · EV 104 mph · LA +7° · 99 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
61% deserve-to-win  ·  5.6 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -2.6 vs expected
contact: 8.5 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-0.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Percy Nava 69 / +7° Center Stay 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Clifford Irving 93 / +10° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Terry Ayers 92 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Andres Espinoza 76 / -6° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Jesse Williams 61 / +10° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Astros
39% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 9.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Van Neely 88 / +12° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Van Neely 79 / +12° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Alexis Edmonson 71 / +10° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Marcos Kingsbury 76 / +21° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Quentin Maier 104 / +7° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.38
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