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Canaries 10, Red Sox 9                                      2026-07-06 · #1014
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  9    9    6    0
New Jersey             10   10   14    1

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Merrill     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Bektas      c  ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Falby       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Cameron     rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Saravia     2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Wolfe       3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cordano     cf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Maldonado   p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Pope    pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Norton  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Hodges  pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Inniss      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30   9   6   3   0   0   8   6  15   0   0  0.200
  2B: Cameron (6), Pope (1), Malard (8).
  HBP: Wolfe (2).
  GIDP: Núñez (1), Wolfe (2), Cordano (2).
  a-Ran for Maldonado in the 3rd.
  b-Walked in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 3rd.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Morriso pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Campos      ss ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Brickhandle 1b ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Crader      p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Kerr    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Braun       rf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.333
Fishbach    lf ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Lacava      3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    3   1   1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Solórzano   c  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Ali     ph ......    2   0   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Tejeda  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Barron  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Woodall     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25  10  14   7   1   1  10   2   4   0   0  0.560
  2B: Kramer 2 (36), Campos (7), Brickhandler (20), Braun (14), Ali 2 (37).
  3B: Navarro (1).
  HR: Fishbach (6), off Barnhill.
  SB: Brickhandler (19).
  CS: Campos (3).
  E: Woodall (1).
  HBP: Kerr (7).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 2nd.
  b-Batted for Crader in the 2nd.
  c-Batted for Solórzano in the 3rd.
  d-Struck out in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Maldonado (L, 1-3) ..     5    1   4%    5    3    3    0    0    0   18    -
Barnhill ............     4    2   7%    2    4    3    0    0    1   12  1-1
Wittenberg ..........     8    5  19%    4    2    2    0    0    0   21  1-0
Cambage .............    10    8  30%    2    1    1    2    4    0   35  1-0

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Crader (W, 7-3) .....    30   21  78%    4    7    3    6   12    0  107    -
Spoelstra ...........     7    6  22%    2    2    2    0    3    0   25  2-2

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-16)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Maldonado (Outs 1-1) → Barnhill (Outs 2-3) → Wittenberg (Outs 4-8) → Cambage (Outs 9-16)
CATCHER (C)       | Bektas (Outs 1-16)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Núñez (Outs 1-16)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Saravia (Outs 1-16)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-16)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Falby (Outs 1-16)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-16)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cordano (Outs 1-16)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-16)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Crader (Outs 1-21) → Spoelstra (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Braun (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Red Sox batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM ET. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 605005.
  Powerplays: Canaries — Tejeda NF (O16)
  Walk-Back runs: off Barnhill 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 8 Phillip Bektas Xzavier Wolfe (3B) 1–0
T 12 Xzavier Wolfe Ferdi Pope (3B) 2–0
T 15 Walter Núñez Jacob Hodges (3B) 3–0
T 21 Ferdi Pope Phillip Bektas (3B) 4–0
T 21 Ferdi Pope Tony Cameron (2B) 5–0
T 21 Ivo Malard Vinicius Cordano (3B) 6–0
T 21 Ivo Malard Ferdi Pope (2B) 7–0
T 22 Phillip Bektas Jacob Hodges (3B) 8–0
T 24 Tony Cameron Ivo Malard (3B) 9–0
B 0 Hugo Campos Andrea Kramer (2B) 9–1
B 1 Gianluca Braun Jam Brickhandler (3B) 9–2
B 1 Gianluca Braun Vincent Crader (1B) 9–3
B 1 Deylin Fishbach Gianluca Braun (2B) 9–4
B 1 Deylin Fishbach Deylin Fishbach (HR) 9–5
B 1 Roberto Lacava Deylin Fishbach (3B) 9–6
B 3 Andrea Kramer Jeyland Solórzano (1B) 9–7
B 8 Ramón Navarro Roberto Lacava (1B) 9–8
B 8 Rodmond Ali Ramón Navarro (3B) 9–9
B 16 Rodmond Ali Brandon Barron (3B) 9–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Red Sox — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Diego Saravia — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +42° · 230 ft Ferdi Pope — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +14° · 117 ft Ivo Malard — double · EV 92 mph · LA +11° · 125 ft Phillip Bektas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 170 ft Tony Cameron — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 189 ft Vinicius Cordano — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Ferdi Pope — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 290 ft Xzavier Wolfe — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Walter Núñez — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Phillip Bektas — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 295 ft Tony Cameron — error · EV 83 mph · LA +9° · 83 ft Vinicius Cordano — single · EV 84 mph · LA +24° · 209 ft Tony Cameron — double · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 167 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 233 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 8 XBH · 1 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — double · EV 112 mph · LA +16° · 273 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 351 ft Jam Brickhandler — double · EV 119 mph · LA +22° · 393 ft Vincent Crader — single · EV 97 mph · LA +19° · 227 ft Gianluca Braun — double · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 293 ft Deylin Fishbach — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +26° · 419 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +27° · 177 ft Ramón Navarro — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 212 ft Ulises Morrison — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA -8° · 68 ft Jesse Woodall — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +14° · 175 ft Andrea Kramer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 329 ft Hugo Campos — single · EV 100 mph · LA -7° · 95 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 113 ft Gianluca Braun — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -18° · 68 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -7° · 85 ft Roberto Lacava — fielders_choice · EV 112 mph · LA +8° · 106 ft Ramón Navarro — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +24° · 297 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 205 ft Gianluca Braun — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA -0° · 86 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
22% deserve-to-win  ·  5.7 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +3.3 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+1.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ferdi Pope 92 / +30° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Ivo Malard 92 / +11° Oppo Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Tony Cameron 92 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Phillip Bektas 92 / +30° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Vinicius Cordano 84 / +24° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.60
Canaries
78% deserve-to-win  ·  10.7 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -0.7 vs expected
contact: 19.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 25.0 (+5.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ramón Navarro 100 / +24° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.66
Gianluca Braun 92 / +30° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Jesse Woodall 95 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.11
Deylin Fishbach 114 / +26° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.04
Ulises Morrison 72 / -8° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
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