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Orioles 14, Marlins 11                                      2026-07-06 · #1013
at Deifel Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore              14   14   15    1
Miami                  11   11    8    0

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Purchase    rf ......    4   0   2   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Foust   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Wayar       p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   4   1   1   1   1  0.500
Abajian     3b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Kautz       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Michulk pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Samudio     ss ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
Flowers     cf ......    4   1   2   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Mills   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sigourney   2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  d-Stokke  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Alison      1b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Maloney     lf ......    4   2   3   3   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.750
  f-López   pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Visser  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Maciejc ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  i-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  j-Heath   ph ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  k-Ison    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Adams       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  14  15   6   1   1  14   6  10   1   2  0.484
  2B: Wayar (1), Samudio (9), Maloney 3 (37), López (2).
  3B: Purchase (1).
  HR: Flowers (4), off Dawe.
  SB: Maloney (11).
  CS: Purchase (5), López (4).
  E: Thompson (3).
  a-Ran for Purchase in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Kautz in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Flowers in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Sigourney in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Alison in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Maloney in the 7th.
  g-Grounded out for Stokke in the 7th.
  h-Batted for Barba in the 6th.
  i-Struck out for Thompson in the 8th.
  j-Walked in the 8th.
  k-Ran in the 9th.

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Chieh-yu    lf ......    5   2   3   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.600
Blackman    c  ......    4   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Enterline   rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Beasley pr ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Mothudi     1b ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Suggs       ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Chappell    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
Mangin      3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Min         p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
Enquist     cf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
  b-Suárez  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  11   8   4   0   0  10   5  12   0   2  0.250
  2B: Chieh-yu (9), Blackman (4), Enquist (15), Beasley (4).
  CS: Chieh-yu (13).
  a-Ran for Enterline in the 4th.
  b-Struck out in the 9th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wayar (W, 6-2) ......    17   14   65  3.8    3    4    4    3    6    0    -
Rullo ...............    15   10   49  3.3    3    6    5    2    4    0  1-0
Nealon ..............     4    3   18  4.5    1    1    1    0    2    0  1-1

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Min (L, 1-4) ........    15   10   58  3.9    7    7    7    4    3    0    -
Dawe ................    17   13   66  3.9    7    3    3    1    5    1    -
Offord ..............     4    2   14  3.5    1    4    4    1    2    0  3-2

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wayar (Outs 1-14) → Rullo (Outs 15-24) → Nealon (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Abajian (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Purchase (Outs 1-27)

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Min (Outs 1-10) → Dawe (Outs 11-23) → Offord (Outs 24-25)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mothudi (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Chappell (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mangin (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Suggs (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-25)

  Batting order: Marlins (home) batted first; Orioles batted second.
  First pitch 7:35 PM ET. Weather: 81°F · Wind out · Overcast · Humid. seed 804048.
  Powerplays: Orioles — Michulka NF (O1)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Don Burns Alexander Beasley (3B) 0–1 —
B 11 Carson Suggs Jacobe Mothudi (3B) 0–2 —
B 14 Montavious Chieh-yu Jacobe Mothudi (3B) 0–3 —
B 14 Montavious Chieh-yu Ramon Blackman (2B) 0–4 —
B 22 Montavious Chieh-yu Alexander Beasley (2B) 0–5 —
B 22 Alexander Beasley Montavious Chieh-yu (3B) 0–6 —
B 22 Alexander Beasley Montavious Chieh-yu (3B) 0–7 —
B 22 Alexander Beasley Ramon Blackman (1B) 0–8 —
B 23 Clifford Chappell Alexander Beasley (3B) 0–9 —
B 24 Devon Mangin Carson Suggs (2B) 0–10 —
B 25 Jason Enquist Devon Mangin (1B) 0–11 —
T 2 Rónald Samudio Nate Abajian (2B) 1–11 1.32
T 3 Kristian Alison Rónald Samudio (2B) 2–11 1.25
T 6 Alan Maloney Alan Maloney (3B) 3–11 1.29
T 6 Dylan Purchase Alan Maloney (2B) 4–11 1.14
T 9 Emilio Wayar Ulises Barba (3B) 5–11 1.17
T 9 Emilio Wayar Maciek Stokke (2B) 6–11 1.00
T 9 Emilio Wayar Geoff Michulka (1B) 7–11 0.83
T 14 Korey Flowers Rónald Samudio (1B) 8–11 0.92
T 14 Korey Flowers Korey Flowers (HR) 9–11 0.69
T 20 Shawqi Maciejczak Sidney Foust (3B) 10–11 0.86
T 24 Emilio Wayar Dyllan Ison (3B) 11–11 1.00
T 25 Edson López Dan Mills (3B) 12–11 0.00
T 25 Edson López Ahmad Heath (2B) 13–11 0.00
T 25 Edson López Emilio Wayar (1B) 14–11 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Deifel Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 276' · CF 455' · RF 303' · 50' wall). Bathtub.
Orioles — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 7 XBH · 1 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Rill Kautz — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +16° · 205 ft Rónald Samudio — double · EV 104 mph · LA +33° · 398 ft Korey Flowers — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 278 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 95 mph · LA +25° · 271 ft Alan Maloney — double · EV 118 mph · LA +27° · 451 ft Emilio Wayar — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 137 ft Nate Abajian — fly_out · EV 109 mph · LA +27° · 388 ft Edson López — double · EV 113 mph · LA +33° · 465 ft Alan Maloney — double · EV 112 mph · LA +20° · 330 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 96 mph · LA +2° · 91 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 118 mph · LA +21° · 376 ft Nate Abajian — single · EV 88 mph · LA +12° · 126 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 80 mph · LA +8° · 76 ft Shawqi Maciejczak — single · EV 97 mph · LA +2° · 93 ft Korey Flowers — hr · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 351 ft Dylan Purchase — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Alan Maloney — double · EV 111 mph · LA +18° · 283 ft Dylan Purchase — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 261 ft Korey Flowers — single · EV 79 mph · LA +2° · 75 ft
Marlins — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
276' 455' 303' Wall 50' Montavious Chieh-yu — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +20° · 220 ft Ramon Blackman — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -20° · 68 ft Don Burns — fly_out · EV 85 mph · LA +26° · 231 ft Jacobe Mothudi — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 122 ft Carson Suggs — single · EV 99 mph · LA -0° · 94 ft Ramon Blackman — double · EV 98 mph · LA +34° · 357 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 88 mph · LA +17° · 174 ft Clifford Chappell — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +2° · 77 ft Jacobe Mothudi — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +11° · 117 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +29° · 334 ft Carson Suggs — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +7° · 89 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 82 mph · LA +16° · 145 ft Alexander Beasley — double · EV 87 mph · LA +44° · 302 ft Devon Mangin — error · EV 73 mph · LA +16° · 111 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — double · EV 98 mph · LA +46° · 386 ft Jason Enquist — double · EV 98 mph · LA +45° · 388 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
77% deserve-to-win  ·  13.2 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  +0.8 vs expected
contact: 26.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 25.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Korey Flowers 96 / +36° Pull Home Run 1.5 → 4 +2.53
Nate Abajian 109 / +27° Center Out 2.3 → 0 -2.25
Edson López 113 / +33° Center Double 3.6 → 2 -1.64
Dylan Purchase 100 / +20° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.59
Rill Kautz 97 / +16° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Marlins
23% deserve-to-win  ·  7.3 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +3.7 vs expected
contact: 13.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alexander Beasley 87 / +44° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.33
Jacobe Mothudi 100 / +9° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Jason Enquist 99 / +29° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Montavious Chieh-yu 93 / +20° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Jacobe Mothudi 87 / +11° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
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