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Padres 10, Guardians 2                                      2026-07-08 · #1038
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Cleveland               2    2    4    1
San Diego              10   10    7    1

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mayotte     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Brymer      cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Fuenzalida  lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ricard      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Druz    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Batt        3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0  0.000
Enquist     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Granber ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   2  0.000
Carmona     1b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.667
Totals                  23   2   4   0   0   0   2   5   9   0   2  0.174
  E: Brymer (1).
  HBP: Fuenzalida (1).
  GIDP: Mayotte (3), Cabrera (12), Druz (6).
  a-Ran for Ricard in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Enquist in the 4th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     c  ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Wilcox      p  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
Najar       3b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   4   0   0   0   0  0.250
Schwinger   ss ......    3   4   2   0   0   1   2   1   1   0   0  0.667
Lavelle     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Andrade     cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Bektas      1b ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Fernández   lf ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.200
  a-Staten  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31  10   7   3   0   1   8   5  10   0   0  0.226
  2B: Pastore 2 (17), Najar (5).
  HR: Schwinger (3), off Robles.
  CS: Najar (5).
  E: Staten (5).
  HBP: MacCracken (2).
  GIDP: Fernández (8).
  a-Grounded out in the 8th.

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ricard (L, 9-8) .....    25   17  63%    4    7    2    5    6    0   88    -
Robles ..............    12   10  37%    3    3    2    0    4    1   45  1-1

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox (W, 13-2) ....    29   27 100%    4    2    1    5    9    0   94    -

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ricard (Outs 1-17) → Robles (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mayotte (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Batt (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Bannatyne (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Brymer (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enquist (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bektas (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Najar (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Lavelle (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Guardians batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 6423.
  Walk-Back runs: off Robles 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 0 Yoshimar Najar Renaldo Pastore (2B) 0–1
B 0 Cary Schwinger Bertram Wilcox (3B) 0–2
B 7 Yoshimar Najar Cary Schwinger (2B) 0–3
B 8 Thomas Lavelle Bertram Wilcox (3B) 0–4
B 14 Haxzel Andrade Phillip Bektas (3B) 0–5
B 16 Yoshimar Najar Phillip Bektas (3B) 0–6
B 16 Yoshimar Najar Haxzel Andrade (2B) 0–7
B 18 Renaldo Pastore Cary Schwinger (3B) 0–8
B 22 Cary Schwinger Cary Schwinger (HR) 0–9
B 22 Thomas Lavelle Cary Schwinger (3B) 0–10
T 9 Doug Bannatyne Anthony Brymer (3B) 1–10
T 25 Doug Bannatyne Boris Carmona (3B) 2–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Guardians — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Lawson Ricard — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 105 ft Sam Enquist — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 190 ft Hubert Druz — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -15° · 56 ft Boris Carmona — single · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Benoit Mayotte — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Sekou Cabrera — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Kemari Granberry — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +22° · 235 ft Anthony Brymer — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 207 ft Doug Bannatyne — error · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Boris Carmona — single · EV 87 mph · LA +5° · 82 ft Anthony Brymer — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 102 ft Benoit Mayotte — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -8° · 49 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
386' 403' 371' Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 97 mph · LA +17° · 208 ft Yoshimar Najar — double · EV 87 mph · LA +45° · 303 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 167 ft Haxzel Andrade — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +15° · 125 ft Israel Fernández — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA +4° · 57 ft Thomas Lavelle — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 73 ft Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 102 mph · LA +19° · 260 ft Zane Staten — error · EV 66 mph · LA -7° · 63 ft Renaldo Pastore — line_out · EV 105 mph · LA +17° · 246 ft Yoshimar Najar — error · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 117 ft Phillip Bektas — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA -10° · 79 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 142 ft Israel Fernández — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 186 ft Haxzel Andrade — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA -15° · 79 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +23° · 273 ft Renaldo Pastore — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA +0° · 81 ft Cary Schwinger — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +27° · 382 ft Renaldo Pastore — double · EV 111 mph · LA +16° · 255 ft Yoshimar Najar — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +28° · 227 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Guardians
17% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -1.9 vs expected
contact: 4.3 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kemari Granberry 92 / +22° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Boris Carmona 76 / -5° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Boris Carmona 87 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Lawson Ricard 76 / +14° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Anthony Brymer 76 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Padres
83% deserve-to-win  ·  8.5 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +1.5 vs expected
contact: 14.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cary Schwinger 109 / +27° Center Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.82
Renaldo Pastore 105 / +17° Oppo Out 1.7 → 0 -1.65
Yoshimar Najar 87 / +45° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Yoshimar Najar 98 / +23° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Renaldo Pastore 97 / +17° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
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