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Canaries 10, Red Sox 9                                      2026-07-08 · #1037
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  9    9    9    1
New Jersey             10   10    9    0

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    3   2   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Venegas     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Núñez       cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Saravia     c  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Rowley      3b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Norton      1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Pope    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kamara      ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Cordano     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Castillo    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Miranda ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   1  0.500
  c-Hodges  pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Malard      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   9   9   3   0   0   9   3  13   0   1  0.290
  2B: Suazo (19), Rowley (6), Miranda (1).
  E: Suazo (6).
  a-Ran for Norton in the 3rd.
  b-Batted in the 4th.
  c-Ran in the 4th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kerr        rf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Rushing ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kramer      2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Campos  ph ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.333
Braun       ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cordero     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Ali     ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fishbach    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tesfaye     p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Hollenb pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Lacava      3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Brickha pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Morriso pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Solórzano   c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
  g-Tejeda  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Levells pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  i-Barron  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Woodall     j  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  25  10   9   5   0   0  10   4   7   0   0  0.360
  2B: Kerr (18), Tesfaye (1), Solórzano (1), Campos (8), Woodall (7).
  SB: Morrison (2).
  CS: Brickhandler (13), Woodall (3).
  a-Grounded out for Kerr in the 5th.
  b-Batted for Kramer in the 2nd.
  c-Batted for Cordero in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Tesfaye in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Lacava in the 2nd.
  f-Ran for Navarro in the 2nd.
  g-Walked for Morrison in the 5th.
  h-Ran for Tejeda in the 5th.
  i-Ran in the 7th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo ............     5    2   7%    2    3    1    0    0    0   13    -
Root ................    14   10  37%    3    3    3    2    6    0   53    -
Johnson (L, 0-2) ....    11    7  26%    4    4    4    2    2    0   38  1-0

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Tesfaye (W, 7-1) ....    30   23  85%    7    5    5    3   12    0   95    -
Thom ................     5    4  15%    2    4    4    0    2    0   18  3-3

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-19)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-2) → Root (Outs 3-12) → Johnson (Outs 13-19)
CATCHER (C)       | Saravia (Outs 1-19)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Norton (Outs 1-19)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-19)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rowley (Outs 1-19)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kamara (Outs 1-19)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Venegas (Outs 1-19)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Núñez (Outs 1-19)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cordano (Outs 1-19)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Tesfaye (Outs 1-23) → Thom (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Red Sox batted first.
  First pitch 1:00 PM ET. Weather: 57°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 449510.
  Powerplays: Canaries — Tejeda NF (O15)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 14 Diego Saravia Ferdi Pope (3B) 1–0
T 16 Manuel Suazo Jacob Hodges (3B) 2–0
T 17 Daylan Miranda Jacob Hodges (3B) 3–0
T 22 Raymond Rowley Diego Saravia (3B) 4–0
T 22 Raymond Rowley Craig Kamara (1B) 5–0
T 24 Manuel Suazo Walter Núñez (1B) 6–0
T 24 Manuel Suazo Manuel Suazo (3B) 7–0
T 25 Daylan Miranda Raymond Rowley (3B) 8–0
T 25 Daylan Miranda Manuel Suazo (2B) 9–0
B 0 Jerome Kerr Andrea Kramer (1B) 9–1
B 0 Gianluca Braun Jerome Kerr (2B) 9–2
B 1 Deylin Fishbach Gianluca Braun (2B) 9–3
B 2 Ramón Navarro Alemayehu Tesfaye (2B) 9–4
B 12 Jeyland Solórzano Ulises Morrison (3B) 9–5
B 12 Jeyland Solórzano Jake Levells (1B) 9–6
B 18 Jesse Woodall Tripp Hollenbeck (2B) 9–7
B 19 Hugo Campos Jam Brickhandler (3B) 9–8
B 19 Hugo Campos Brandon Barron (2B) 9–9
B 19 Hugo Campos Jeyland Solórzano (1B) 9–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Red Sox — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Manuel Suazo — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +33° · 248 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 84 mph · LA -25° · 80 ft Michail Norton — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Craig Kamara — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +17° · 208 ft Vinicius Cordano — single · EV 93 mph · LA +5° · 89 ft Andrés Castillo — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +17° · 187 ft Dexter Inniss — single · EV 66 mph · LA +21° · 115 ft Jacob Hodges — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -3° · 70 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 173 ft Manuel Suazo — single · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 247 ft Ivo Malard — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +17° · 166 ft Bernard Strachan — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +34° · 246 ft Daylan Miranda — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 258 ft Jacob Hodges — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Raymond Rowley — double · EV 101 mph · LA +27° · 331 ft Diego Saravia — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +13° · 109 ft Manuel Suazo — double · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 326 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 4 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — single · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 226 ft Jerome Kerr — double · EV 100 mph · LA +26° · 314 ft Gianluca Braun — error · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +1° · 95 ft Deylin Fishbach — itp_out · EV 119 mph · LA +19° · 350 ft Roberto Lacava — single · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Ramón Navarro — single · EV 103 mph · LA +1° · 98 ft Jam Brickhandler — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 276 ft Jayden Rushing — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Jake Levells — single · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 283 ft Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 119 mph · LA +8° · 158 ft Jeyland Solórzano — double · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 193 ft Hugo Campos — line_out · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 444 ft Rodmond Ali — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 263 ft Alemayehu Tesfaye — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 196 ft Jesse Woodall — double · EV 100 mph · LA +20° · 261 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 115 mph · LA +16° · 272 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
19% deserve-to-win  ·  5.6 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 10.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Craig Kamara 96 / +17° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Manuel Suazo 93 / +35° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.08
Andrés Castillo 92 / +17° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Diego Saravia 76 / +24° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.84
Michail Norton 76 / -2° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Canaries
81% deserve-to-win  ·  11.3 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 21.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-7.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hugo Campos 119 / +26° Center Out 3.0 → 0 -2.96
Deylin Fishbach 119 / +19° Oppo Itp_Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Jerome Kerr 119 / +8° Oppo Out 1.6 → 0 -1.56
Jam Brickhandler 100 / +22° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Rodmond Ali 100 / +21° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
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